2016 Kernow Callsigns and the RBN

During 2016, stations in Cornwall, England were permitted to apply for a Notice of Variation ("NoV") from Ofcom to allow them to change their prefix when they desired to do so, at their option, for the year 2016. A couple of limitations applied: the main address of the station had to be in Cornwall, and the operation had to occur in Cornwall.

The Kernow prefixes were:

Ordinary Prefix	Kernow Prefix
G	GK
M	MK
2E	2K

Thus, for example, the active Cornish station G4AMT sometimes signed GK4AMT during 2016.

The RBN recorded a total of 16,120 posts of 192 stations using Kernow prefixes. Some of these posts, however, were miscopies of callsigns, and some were of stations that do not appear to have met the criteria for legitimate use of a Kernow callsign. The RBN reports all occasions on which the call was recorded calling CQ on CW and most digital modes (a single CQ results in multiple posts if more than one station on the network copies it). While postings on the RBN are not an ideal measurement of activity, they are the best we have, and they do have the distinct merit of being objective.

The 192 callsigns with Kernow prefixes reported by the RBN (including many obvious errors) were:

2K10TJ	2K10Y	2K10Y/2	GK0ANM	GK0DLV	GK0PEM	GK0PN	GK0PNM
GK0WIM	GK1IED	GK1LQT	GK2A	GK2MU	GK3C	GK3CQ	GK3DXW
GK3KD	GK3KDP	GK3KQ	GK3LAI	GK3LNW	GK3MP	GK3MPD	GK3PLE
GK3PWR	GK3UC	GK3UCQ	GK3UCQ C	GK3UCQE	GK3UQ	GK3VM	GK3VMK
GK3WPP	GK4A	GK4AJC	GK4AM	GK4AMM	GK4AMT	GK4AMT C	GK4AMTE
GK4AQ	GK4AVG	GK4BPJ	GK4BW	GK4DTD	GK4EOG	GK4FF	GK4GH
GK4MH	GK4MT	GK4MYY	GK4PBN	GK4SKS	GK4TMT	GK6AA	GK7FL
GK7KFQ	GK7OGX	GK7RI	GK8ADI	GK8CE	GK8NM	MK0AD	MK0ALC
MK0BKV	MK0BUI	MK0DX	MK0EK	MK0FX	MK0LG	MK0MM	MK0OO
MK0ORS	MK0WRTC	MK0WRTC/P	MK10U	MK1AMF	MK1AO	MK1AY	MK1CF
MK1CT	MK1DBO	MK1DJ	MK1DM	MK1DN	MK1DOR	MK1DWF	MK1FCR
MK1FFU	MK1FGD	MK1HCG	MK1IF	MK1JFP	MK1KA	MK1KC	MK1KSL
MK1KTA	MK1M	MK1MI	MK1MT	MK1NO	MK1Q	MK1QT	MK1RM
MK1RR	MK1RX	MK1RZ	MK1SFA	MK1SI	MK1T	MK1UBA	MK1WU
MK1X	MK1XC	MK1XM	MK1XV	MK1ZA	MK1ZMSP	MK2AN	MK2BDR
MK2BFN	MK2BLD	MK2BMWU	MK2EA	MK2FG	MK2GG	MK2GZ	MK2H
MK2HBR	MK2L	MK2MBP	MK2PBR	MK2RJC	MK2RRR	MK2SGW	MK2SLS
MK2TRN	MK3C	MK3DBG	MK3LR	MK3MD	MK3RA	MK3RM	MK3WW
MK3ZM	MK4CVL	MK4E	MK4MM	MK4YJ/P	MK4ZXM	MK4ZXMTA	MK5KSW
MK5M	MK5OH	MK5P	MK5RL	MK5ZD	MK6AA	MK6HGF	MK6IN
MK6INM	MK6JIC	MK6OIC	MK6RIU	MK6WL	MK7FLO	MK7LX	MK7M
MK7MKL/0	MK7OB	MK7S	MK7Y	MK7Z	MK8MMM/B	MK8MP	MK8PBO
MK8ZZ	MK9AW/P	MK9CA	MK9CK	MK9CKQ	MK9CT	MK9DGP	MK9EP
MK9H	MK9IR	MK9M	MK9MA	MK9NZ	MK9OM	MK9PY	MK9ZM

Unfortunately, there appears to be no definitive list of stations that were issued an NoV; but, comparing the listed calls with stations with Cornish main addresses on QRZ.com, we find that the following stations appear to be the only legitimate Kernow callsigns posted by the RBN:

GK0ANM	GK0DLV	GK0PNM	GK1LQT	GK3KDP
GK3LAI	GK3LNW	GK3MPD	GK3PLE	GK3UCQ
GK3WPP	GK4AMT	GK4BPJ	GK4DTD	GK4EOG
GK4MYY	GK4PBN	GK7KFQ	GK7OGX	MK0BKV
MK0BUI	MK0ORS

We can create a table showing the number of posts for each of these stations in 2015 and 2016:

Base call	2015	2016	K 2016	Σ 2016
G0ANM	1	1	1	2
G0DLV	0	0	4	4
G0PNM	7,895	3,542	1,107	4,649
G1LQT	60	1	64	65
G3KDP	2,160	632	134	766
G3LAI	0	1	12	13
G3LNW	918	81	15	96
G3MPD	0	1	553	554
G3PLE	2	20	140	160
G3UCQ	3,299	304	6,717	7,021
G3WPP	0	0	1	1
G4AMT	651	2,273	5,449	7,722
G4BPJ	1,753	2,429	690	3,119
G4DTD	409	142	42	184
G4EOG	482	151	82	233
G4MYY	0	0	43	43
G4PBN	8	0	4	4
G7KFQ	0	0	28	28
G7OGX	32	3	127	130
M0BKV	58	2	1	3
M0BUI	112	4	1	5
M0ORS	0	1	8	9
TOTAL	17,840	9,587	14,670	24,257

The columns show:

1. the station's ordinary callsign;
2. the number of times that the station's ordinary G call was posted by the RBN in 2015;
3. the number of times that the station's ordinary G call was posted by the RBN in 2016;
4. the number of times that the station's Kernow call was posted (in 2016);
5. The number of times that either of the station's calls were posted in 2016.

Note that G[K]3MPD is a club station, and there was, apparently, no requirement by Ofcom that the operator of the station hold an NoV even when signing with the GK callign; for example, GK3MPD entered a log in the CQ WW SSB contest -- but the operator was from Scotland, not Cornwall). Therefore it seems reasonable to exclude GK3MPD as a fully legitimate GK callsign in the analysis below, since its use on at least some occasions appears to go against the spirit of the NoV, whose intent was clearly not to include operators who were temporarily in Cornwall (otherwise, the NoV would have been made available directly to such operators; it was not). The station of the other major club in Cornwall, the Cornish Radio Amateur Club, GX4CRC, appears to be inactive, if not moribund: GX4CRC was not spotted by the RBN in 2015 or 2016, nor was GK4CRC spotted in 2016.

Thus the TOTAL line in the above table does not include data from G[K]3MPD. In the tables below, values for G[K]3MPD are included for informational purposes in the individual rows, but they are not used in calculations of totals, etc.

Just looking at the raw numbers, several things are obvious:

• Stations with an NoV showed a large percentage of activity in 2016 using their ordinary call (roughly 40%).
• The total amount of activity due to these stations appeared to increase from 2015 to 2016, by about 35%.
• The apparent increase in activity was therefore not due merely to operations with the K calls.
• The vast bulk of activity was from a mere handful of stations: just two stations, GK3UCQ and GK4AMT accounted for more than 80%(!!) of the posts of GK calls. Any station looking to work GK stations would likely be frustrated by this statistic. I know that I was. 
• Indeed, if G[K]3UCQ and G[K]4AMT had not been active, the activity level would have decreased by more than 30% between 2015 and 2016.

We can improve our understanding by looking at the numbers in the context of the total annual number of posts of stations in England (this number will reflect both the activity of the stations and the dynamic nature of the RBN -- the latter is important, and we need to take it into account when we try to determine whether the Cornish stations were really more active in 2016; presumably the dynamic nature of the RBN affects both the reported G activity in toto and the reported activity from our Cornish stations in an unbiased manner ):

Year	G Posts
2009	100,579
2010	729,257
2011	1,418,474
2012	2,164,217
2013	2,667,757
2014	2,978,974
2015	2,957,711
2016	2,889,584

We can use these figures to determine what percentage of the total English activity is represented by the stations that were active with a K callsign in 2016 (splitting the resulting table into two so as to allow it to fit more easily on the web page).

Base call	2009	2010	2011	2012
G0ANM	0	1	1	0
G0DLV	0	2	2	0
G0PNM	0	0	0	0
G1LQT	0	0	129	26
G3KDP	15	135	568	1,603
G3LAI	2	0	0	0
G3LNW	2	4	52	20
G3MPD	0	4	0	554
G3PLE	0	4	0	2
G3UCQ	79	455	1,370	1,372
G3WPP	0	147	103	0
G4AMT	250	2,989	3,781	2,922
G4BPJ	69	172	785	845
G4DTD	5	80	223	163
G4EOG	1	67	113	414
G4MYY	0	0	0	0
G4PBN	0	0	0	0
G7KFQ	0	0	0	0
G7OGX	0	22	33	23
M0BKV	0	1	21	17
M0BUI	0	0	0	0
M0ORS	0	0	0	0
TOTAL	423	4,083	7,181	7,407
ALL Gs	100,579	729,257	1,418,474	2,164,217
% Cornish	0.42	0.56	0.51	0.34

Base call	2013	2014	2015	G 2016	K 2016	Σ 2016
G0ANM	2	7	1	1	1	2
G0DLV	0	0	0	0	4	4
G0PNM	940	7,376	7,895	3,542	1,107	4,649
G1LQT	33	2	60	1	64	65
G3KDP	1,235	2,163	2,160	632	134	766
G3LAI	0	0	0	1	12	13
G3LNW	34	0	918	81	15	96
G3MPD	0	51	0	1	553	0
G3PLE	51	258	2	20	140	160
G3UCQ	2,852	2,870	3,299	304	6,717	7,021
G3WPP	106	112	0	0	1	1
G4AMT	3,687	4,619	651	2,273	5,449	7,722
G4BPJ	1,454	4,955	1,753	2,429	690	3,119
G4DTD	363	296	409	142	42	184
G4EOG	129	297	482	151	82	233
G4MYY	0	0	0	0	43	43
G4PBN	0	1	8	0	4	4
G7KFQ	0	0	0	0	28	28
G7OGX	10	61	32	3	127	130
M0BKV	26	12	58	2	1	3
M0BUI	0	0	112	4	1	5
M0ORS	0	0	0	1	8	9
TOTAL	10,922	23,080	17,840	14,670	15,223	24,257
ALL Gs	2,667,757	2,978,974	2,957,711	2,889,584	2,889,584	2,889,584
% Cornish	0.41	0.77	0.60	0.33	0.51	0.83

Thus, we see that the activity of our Cornish stations as compared to the activity of G stations as a whole varied tremendously in the years leading up to 2016, representing between 0.34% and 0.77% of the total, depending on the year.

There are insufficient data to determine the long-term distribution of the percentage of activity due to the Cornish stations, but we can see that the total activity of these stations in 2016, including both GK activity and non-GK activity, is not much different from the peak activity in the few years prior to 2016 (0.83% as against 0.77%). (Indeed, there are so few annual data that the standard error of the mean is ~0.05, so that the 99% confidence limit for the mean of the underlying percentage distribution covers the rather wide range from 0.41 to 0.62.)

In summary, the data about enhanced activity in 2016 are not completely clear-cut: but that in itself tells us something important: that the availability of GK callsigns did not make a substantial (i.e., statistically unambiguous) difference to the activity from Cornwall. To the extent that there was an increase in activity, it was of a somewhat peculiar secondary type: the stations with an NoV still exhibited a high percentage of activity with their ordinary callsigns, and it is only if both types of callsigns are included that there is even a possibility that activity increased a little above historical levels.

Another clear result is that the availability of the GK calls did very little to encourage relatively inactive stations to become more active. The four most active stations in 2016 were G[K]0PNM, G[K]3UCQ, G[K]4AMT and G[K]4BPJ. These four stations accounted for 22,511, or 93%, of the posts in 2016. For the most part, these are the same four stations as have been historically active  (the exception being G0PNM, who seems to have been inactive prior to 2013; similarly, G3KDP, who was historically one of the more active stations, has become much less active in the past couple of years). Once one looks past the top four stations in a given year, the remaining stations contribute almost nothing to the activity total. These would be the very stations that one might expect to have been encouraged to become more active in 2016 with their special callsigns; but their activity remained at a very low level despite their occasional use of their Kernow callsigns.

---

Departing from the objective data to make a few concluding subjective statements: this analysis confirms my own impression of Kernow activity in 2016, to which I had looked forward with considerable enthusiasm and expectation: GK4AMT was active and workable on several bands over the course of the year (including thrice on 80m,); GK3UCQ was heard and worked on 20m and 17m; the other stations I worked were a struggle, and were heard only very rarely. Without the RBN to alert me to their presence, I would have worked no Kernow stations except GK4AMT and, possibly, GK3UCQ. I especially appreciated GK4AMT's activity throughout the year; in particular, he was one of only two EU stations I worked on 80m during the CQ WW CW contest.

The absence of GK4CRC throughout the year was a disappointment (especially as the club sponsored an award that essentially required a QSO with GK4CRC), as was the lack of focused activity on St. Piran's Day (5 March), when I naïvely expected several GK stations to be workable. Despite the fact that the day coincided with the ARRL SSB DX contest, I heard not a single Kernow station. Some GK stations were spotted by the RBN on that day, but no stations were outside the small group that were active throughout the year.

Another disappointment took the form of the small number of workable Cornish stations who, for whatever reason, had not applied for a Kernow call. I was quite saddened that the special station GB0GLD, whose callsign was taken from the call of Land's End Radio (GLD), where I took my Morse test long ago, chose not to use a Kernow call.

I am grateful to all those that put in the effort to bring about the 2016 K-for-Kernow NoVs, and to GK3UCQ in particular, not only for his sustained efforts in that cause but also for being the manager for the beautiful Kernow award.