2024-03-13

Reverse NILs in CQ WW: 2023; 2014 to 2023

The basic notion of reverse NILs (rNILs; or, I suppose, RNILs) is described here, along with a description of a simple script for calculating rNILs for CQ WW contests and the result of applying that code to the contests for 2005. See also the comments at the end of that post. I would be delighted if anyone who spots any errors in the script would inform me.

We can also look at the results for periods of ten years at a time; the only difference in the way that these decadal tables are calculated is that the minimum number of rQSOs is raised from 50 to 250 for tables pertaining to all QSOs and from 25 to 125 for those pertaining to intra-W QSOs. (That is, the value of the variable MIN_QSOs is changed from 50 to 250.)

Here are the results for 2023 and for the period from 2014 to 2023. As in prior years, I refrain from comment on specific calls.

2023 SSB:

Call Total rQSOs Total rNILs
K4JPD 1133 1120
RA3XM 1123 905
CA3VAK 889 885
PY2DR 310 305
F8DVD 2372 275
CN3A 16247 261
KE0UI 303 251
NN7CW 2274 224
6Y1V 7891 218
TO5A 7594 206


Call Total rQSOs Total rNILs % rNILs
CA3VAK 889 885 99.6
K4JPD 1133 1120 98.9
PY2DR 310 305 98.4
IU0PXM 112 101 90.2
KE0UI 303 251 82.8
GW0NEC 62 50 80.6
RA3XM 1123 905 80.6
KE2HG 178 125 70.2
9A1EA 98 67 68.4
DO6MRC 224 103 46.0


Call Total rQSOs with Ws rNILs against Ws Total rQSOs with non-Ws rNILs against non-Ws
K4JPD 45 45 1088 1075
N2IC 187 34 2091 17
NN7CW 81 28 2193 196
K3LR 616 25 7900 101
KW7MM 145 24 1237 16
WX3B 269 22 5039 68
K3EST 320 18 2666 41
K5GN 251 10 2517 39
K9RS 47 9 3523 45
W2A 45 9 3099 56


Call Total rQSOs with Ws Total rNILs against Ws % rNILs against Ws Total rQSOs with non-Ws rNILs against non-Ws % rNILs against non-Ws
K4JPD 45 45 100.0 1088 1075 98.8
NN7CW 81 28 34.6 2193 196 8.9
W2A 45 9 20.0 3099 56 1.8
K9RS 47 9 19.1 3523 45 1.3
W7VJ 27 5 18.5 983 6 0.6
N2IC 187 34 18.2 2091 17 0.8
KW7MM 145 24 16.6 1237 16 1.3
K8LX 27 4 14.8 1014 17 1.7
K0MD 37 5 13.5 819 16 2.0
W1RCR 73 7 9.6 1034 19 1.8


2023 CW:

Call Total rQSOs Total rNILs
SZ1A 4627 1201
OK2YZ 878 460
W1WEF 1227 296
D4C 16391 229
NA3M 613 211
CN3A 14898 205
EA8RM 7890 194
EF6T 7895 188
VK6T 1503 187
8P5A 7530 186


Call Total rQSOs Total rNILs % rNILs
UT3PA 107 106 99.1
IZ2EJU 105 103 98.1
W6ENZ 184 142 77.2
CM3OR 148 109 73.6
JE1TSD 98 66 67.3
VA3SB 199 122 61.3
OK2YZ 878 460 52.4
6K2ILX 109 57 52.3
JF2WXS 68 35 51.5
JH8CXW 128 63 49.2


Call Total rQSOs with Ws rNILs against Ws Total rQSOs with non-Ws rNILs against non-Ws
N8OO 82 61 1143 15
NN7CW 87 43 3655 37
N1LN 45 19 2034 22
K0RF 213 18 4593 78
K8LX 91 17 3761 44
AB2E/VP9 1773 15 1534 22
AK1MD 66 15 1405 27
NE3F 44 14 2435 41
NF3R 38 13 1866 17
K1LZ 298 12 9528 95


Call Total rQSOs with Ws Total rNILs against Ws % rNILs against Ws Total rQSOs with non-Ws rNILs against non-Ws % rNILs against non-Ws
N8OO 82 61 74.4 1143 15 1.3
NN7CW 87 43 49.4 3655 37 1.0
N1LN 45 19 42.2 2034 22 1.1
NF3R 38 13 34.2 1866 17 0.9
NE3F 44 14 31.8 2435 41 1.7
K0YR 28 8 28.6 688 10 1.5
N5JJ 25 7 28.0 482 5 1.0
AK1MD 66 15 22.7 1405 27 1.9
K8LX 91 17 18.7 3761 44 1.2
NU4E 29 5 17.2 2113 23 1.1

 

Looking at the past decade:


2014 to 2023 SSB:

Call Total rQSOs Total rNILs
EA2DMH 6876 1662
CN3A 88293 1626
LZ9W 95029 1390
PJ2T 71599 1197
K4JPD 4576 1152
PY2HT 4097 1122
YL2014W 1106 1099
MI0M 3870 1085
YT5A 74353 1051
A73A 55005 1040


Call Total rQSOs Total rNILs % rNILs
YV4GMG 328 327 99.7
CA3VAK 889 885 99.6
YL2014W 1106 1099 99.4
ZZ5Z 297 292 98.3
AA1BU 392 350 89.3
EA8DDS 503 387 76.9
LU9WE 772 559 72.4
YO2MLS 313 224 71.6
RT9X 256 177 69.1
VE2RO 596 397 66.6


Call Total rQSOs with Ws rNILs against Ws Total rQSOs with non-Ws rNILs against non-Ws
N7DD 549 371 7313 144
KV0Q 753 343 6791 92
K3LR 5319 128 61644 746
N2IC 814 113 12004 97
NY6DX 200 95 5782 93
N9RV 603 86 10147 86
K3EST 1749 85 14376 232
K5TR 3189 76 21987 349
W3LPL 2276 54 44619 600
WX3B 1422 53 25097 343


Call Total rQSOs with Ws Total rNILs against Ws % rNILs against Ws Total rQSOs with non-Ws rNILs against non-Ws % rNILs against non-Ws
N7DD 549 371 67.6 7313 144 2.0
NY6DX 200 95 47.5 5782 93 1.6
KV0Q 753 343 45.6 6791 92 1.4
K9BGL 128 49 38.3 6171 202 3.3
K4JPD 138 52 37.7 4438 1100 24.8
KW7MM 145 24 16.6 1238 16 1.3
AB4B 143 22 15.4 5674 64 1.1
N9RV 603 86 14.3 10147 86 0.8
N2IC 814 113 13.9 12004 97 0.8
W8PR 180 23 12.8 10945 154 1.4


2014 to 2023 CW:

Call Total rQSOs Total rNILs
SZ1A 42118 1806
LZ9W 107972 1382
PJ2T 93729 1374
P33W 80892 1175
IK3UNA 12883 1138
YT5A 91834 1050
9A1A 89257 1035
JA3YBK 49387 1019
TI7W 52256 1018
CS2C 11967 1010


Call Total rQSOs Total rNILs % rNILs
RZ9CJ 462 460 99.6
OK1KZ 830 712 85.8
WB0CFF 430 313 72.8
XF1IM 702 385 54.8
W2ANQ 320 174 54.4
YS1MS 433 232 53.6
PP5BLU 305 148 48.5
OM2IV 800 372 46.5
F6GOE 1392 645 46.3
TA1FA/2 397 181 45.6


Call Total rQSOs with Ws rNILs against Ws Total rQSOs with non-Ws rNILs against non-Ws
N7DD 372 192 8764 164
K0RF 2191 161 32869 412
NR5M 1207 130 14698 141
KV2K 393 118 19912 333
NN7CW 988 110 19280 212
N8OO 161 103 3013 26
N9RV 763 82 18904 192
NA3M 190 82 12050 303
K3LR 3289 74 68058 584
WJ9B 837 74 13933 131


Call Total rQSOs with Ws Total rNILs against Ws % rNILs against Ws Total rQSOs with non-Ws rNILs against non-Ws % rNILs against non-Ws
N8OO 161 103 64.0 3013 26 0.9
N7DD 372 192 51.6 8764 164 1.9
NA3M 190 82 43.2 12050 303 2.5
AK1MD 146 45 30.8 4173 115 2.8
KV2K 393 118 30.0 19912 333 1.7
K8LX 288 71 24.7 11738 128 1.1
NE3F 252 60 23.8 16112 268 1.7
KZ5D 243 57 23.5 10793 140 1.3
W5ZN 213 48 22.5 4538 48 1.1
KV0Q 200 43 21.5 1930 63 3.3


2024-03-10

Busting Calls: CQ WW 2023

 Prior posts in this series:


Throughout this post, I apply the procedures developed in the second post above.

For the purpose of this post, only verified QSOs are counted.

Lowest Probability

I begin with an ordered list of the stations with the lowest probabilities of busting a call in 2023 CQ WW SSB.

2023 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (all)
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 G0MTN 0.0004 2,056 0
2 DL1NEO 0.0009 1,069 0
3 W9MR 0.0009 1,061 0
4 KW1X 0.0010 910 0
5 W1TC 0.0012 821 0
6 ES2MC 0.0012 790 0
7 N4PQX 0.0013 747 0
8 HA1BB 0.0014 709 0
9 W4EEY 0.0014 693 0
10 OE6MDF 0.0015 2,044 2

And for 2023 CQ WW CW:

2023 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (all)
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 DM2M 0.0005 1,850 0
2 W3KB 0.0007 1,281 0
3 JG1LFR 0.0008 1,125 0
4 OR2F 0.0008 2,366 1
5 DL6RDR 0.0009 1,108 0
6 N2GC 0.0010 2,091 1
7 AD1C 0.0010 945 0
8 SN5J 0.0010 1,966 1
9 UX1VT 0.0010 914 0
10 DK5TX 0.0011 1,790 1

It is interesting to plot the aggregated probability function for $p_{bust}$ weighted by the verified number of QSOs, $Q_v$, for all stations:

 

In case it isn't clear, the location of the solid vertical lines represent the weighted means of the probability curves. In 2023, then, there was essentially no difference between these curves for CW and SSB.

We can limit the analysis to calling stations (i.e., not the running station).

2023 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (no-run)
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 G0MTN 0.0007 1,362 0
2 NJ4P 0.0007 1,295 0
3 DL1NEO 0.0009 1,067 0
4 W9MR 0.0009 1,014 0
5 KW1X 0.0010 908 0
6 PC3M 0.0011 846 0
7 OK6T 0.0011 1,750 1
8 W1TC 0.0012 815 0
9 VE9AA 0.0013 728 0
10 HA1BB 0.0014 705 0

2023 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (no-run)
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 DM2M 0.0006 1,445 0
2 K3WJV 0.0007 1,299 0
3 SP9XCN 0.0008 1,161 0
4 LA8OM 0.0008 1,124 0
5 W3KB 0.0009 1,079 0
6 DL6RDR 0.0009 1,024 0
7 N2GC 0.0009 1,016 0
8 K9NW 0.0009 1,015 0
9 K1ZZ 0.0010 995 0
10 M6W 0.0010 2,073 1

 


 And similarly for running stations.

2023 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (run)
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 OL0W 0.0009 1,043 0
2 MM1E 0.0010 956 0
3 G0MTN 0.0014 694 0
4 VE6BBP 0.0017 563 0
5 DL8OBF 0.0019 514 0
6 SP9XCN 0.0019 500 0
7 K3CT 0.0020 482 0
8 9K2HN 0.0021 1,923 3
9 BV2A 0.0023 426 0
10 KU2M 0.0023 862 1

2023 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (run)
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 E72U 0.0010 941 0
2 OR2F 0.0012 1,714 1
3 DJ3RA 0.0016 607 0
4 N2GC 0.0019 1,075 1
5 K1ZZ 0.0019 2,670 4
6 WB4TDH 0.0019 499 0
7 AH6KO 0.0021 1,413 2
8 OQ5M 0.0022 1,390 2
9 W8FJ 0.0022 1,840 3
10 N3NR 0.0023 417 0



We can also look at the changes over the period from 2005 to 2023.

First for all QSOs:

 

Then for calling stations:

And for running stations:

The clear up-tick on CW in 2023 is rather interesting. At first, I thought that it might be due to people logging calls mis-spotted on the various spotting networks. But its presence when one limits the analysis to running stations would seem to make that theory untenable. Perhaps it is due to an increase in entrants using code readers, although one would expect few runners to be using those. So this might be an interesting area for further analysis, should anyone be interested. It really is a quite remarkable year-on-year change.

I think it's also interesting to see who appears to have the lowest probability of busting a call over an extended period. So, for the last ten years:

2014--2023 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (all)
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 NW5Q 0.0005 1,971 0
2 IZ4JMA 0.0005 1,705 0
3 ES2MC 0.0006 3,570 1
4 OZ6AGX 0.0006 1,578 0
5 EW1IP 0.0006 1,495 0
6 OH6GDX 0.0006 1,437 0
7 OH7GGX 0.0007 3,094 1
8 IK4OMU 0.0007 1,376 0
9 IK1PMR 0.0007 2,813 1
10 W4EE 0.0008 1,224 0

2014--2023 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (all)
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 NW0M 0.0002 3,875 0
2 N7IR 0.0003 2,558 0
3 AD1C 0.0004 5,676 1
4 WB4TDH 0.0004 5,437 1
5 K6WSC 0.0004 5,134 1
6 KM3T 0.0005 1,966 0
7 K9PW 0.0005 1,947 0
8 JR3RWB 0.0005 1,892 0
9 DP4X 0.0005 4,132 1
10 SE6N 0.0005 4,055 1

A good argument can be made that a better measure of copying ability is to consider only run QSOs:

2014--2023 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (run)
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 F4FTA 0.0009 1,098 0
2 DL7URH 0.0010 928 0
3 C6ARW 0.0010 1,925 1
4 ES2MC 0.0011 1,802 1
5 LU1FAM 0.0011 1,765 1
6 CF7RR 0.0013 1,557 1
7 DL8RDL 0.0013 734 0
8 R7MM 0.0013 728 0
9 VA7RR 0.0015 5,494 7
10 K1ZZ 0.0016 605 0

2014--2023 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (run)
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 LY3CY 0.0005 1,755 0
2 RW5CW 0.0006 1,431 0
3 WB4TDH 0.0007 3,049 1
4 W3OA 0.0007 1,354 0
5 E72U 0.0008 3,893 2
6 SE6N 0.0008 1,202 0
7 KM3T 0.0008 1,193 0
8 OH6MW 0.0008 2,372 1
9 R2VM 0.0009 1,040 0
10 UA3QAM 0.0010 998 0

Highest Probability

We can also look at the calls associated with the highest probability of busting calls in either the forward or the reverse direction:

2023 SSB -- Most Busts
Position Call QSOs Busts % Busts
1 CN3A 15,944 276 1.7
2 6Y1V 7,660 228 3.0
3 II9P 6,697 203 3.0
4 CQ8M 5,495 202 3.7
5 LS2D 4,382 194 4.4
6 TO5A 7,390 190 2.6
7 OT5A 7,273 186 2.6
8 HI3LT 4,965 161 3.2
9 PJ2T 8,812 154 1.7
10 CR6K 9,992 149 1.5


2023 CW -- Most Busts
Position Call QSOs Busts % Busts
1 EA8RM 7,777 307 3.9
2 D4C 16,145 270 1.7
3 TM1A 8,232 246 3.0
4 CN3A 14,689 213 1.5
5 PJ2T 11,532 213 1.8
6 OT7T 9,412 205 2.2
7 II2S 10,153 184 1.8
8 PX2A 7,508 181 2.4
9 HQ9X 8,454 171 2.0
10 RM9A 9,587 167 1.7


2023 SSB -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥100 QSOs)
Position Call QSOs Busts % Busts
1 YB1EQI 109 20 18.3
2 BA7JMO 110 18 16.4
3 C31LK 109 17 15.6
4 IS0AGY 105 15 14.3
5 YF4SDF 106 15 14.2
6 UR5ZDZ 213 30 14.1
7 SA6PBW 125 17 13.6
8 CE3TKG 152 20 13.2
9 BG6QLL 100 13 13.0
10 OH1TS 103 13 12.6


2023 CW -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥100 QSOs)
Position Call QSOs Busts % Busts
1 IW2OGY 127 26 20.5
2 9M2KDX 113 22 19.5
3 K3GG 154 29 18.8
4 VE4DL 171 32 18.7
5 K9HXO 149 27 18.1
6 AI2U 224 40 17.9
7 EF4F 185 33 17.8
8 LA6M 346 61 17.6
9 SP2EPV 234 41 17.5
10 SM5DNO 112 19 17.0


2023 SSB -- Most Reverse Busts
Position Call QSOs Reverse Busts % Reverse Busts
1 DF0HQ 9,933 305 3.1
2 9A1A 11,223 277 2.5
3 EA8RM 7,159 260 3.6
4 YT5A 11,767 186 1.6
5 CN3A 15,944 185 1.2
6 CR6K 9,992 163 1.6
7 LZ6V 2,070 163 7.9
8 LU8DPM 2,770 161 5.8
9 EW5A 7,578 158 2.1
10 S53M 5,884 156 2.7


2023 CW -- Most Reverse Busts
Position Call QSOs Reverse Busts % Reverse Busts
1 UT3NK 528 528 100.0
2 JF1NHD 3,508 429 12.2
3 RM9A 9,587 404 4.2
4 SM0HRP 2,190 387 17.7
5 II2S 10,153 361 3.6
6 DF0HQ 9,526 271 2.8
7 YT5A 11,522 266 2.3
8 RT4F 8,369 260 3.1
9 CN3A 14,689 258 1.8
10 K3LR 9,083 252 2.8


2023 SSB -- Highest Percentage of Reverse Busts (≥100 QSOs)
Position Call QSOs % Reverse Busts
1 DX3EVM 320 15.6
2 UA3R 191 14.7
3 DU1QVK 190 13.2
4 BG7SSK 146 11.0
5 KE7NGO 174 10.9
6 K9CJ 120 10.8
7 BA7MT 195 10.8
8 VK2DG 322 9.9
9 HZ1SK 357 9.8
10 9A5AFF 543 9.8


2023 CW -- Highest Percentage of Reverse Busts (≥100 QSOs)
Position Call QSOs % Reverse Busts
1 UT3NK 528 100.0
2 SQ2RH 102 30.4
3 DF5GO 125 20.8
4 SA5CDO 274 18.6
5 SM0HRP 2,190 17.7
6 CB4EW 117 15.4
7 N5NHJ 325 14.8
8 SQ6MIH 421 14.7
9 SA6AUN 220 14.1
10 K4HQK 296 13.2


In tables of reverse busts, one sometimes finds what seems like an unreasonable number of reverse busts (as is the case, for example, for UT3NK in the 2023 CW table above). This is generally caused by a discrepancy between the call actually sent by the listed station and the one recorded as being sent in at least some QSOs in the station's log. Other causes of frequent reverse busts are poor sending/audio, unusual calls and calls that are very similar to the call of an active, well-known contester.

Looking at a ten-year period:

2014--2023 SSB -- Most Busts
Position Call QSOs Busts % Busts
1 LZ9W 93,344 1,627 1.7
2 CN3A 86,528 1,534 1.8
3 OT5A 59,537 1,288 2.2
4 PJ2T 70,334 1,231 1.8
5 YT5A 73,097 1,043 1.4
6 V26B 59,233 1,008 1.7
7 A73A 53,842 958 1.8
8 II2S 53,546 905 1.7
9 CR6K 56,086 866 1.5
10 CQ8M 26,546 826 3.1


2014--2023 CW -- Most Busts
Position Call QSOs Busts % Busts
1 PJ2T 92,331 1,213 1.3
2 LZ9W 106,254 1,138 1.1
3 TK0C 73,216 1,092 1.5
4 YT5A 90,512 904 1.0
5 JA3YBK 48,207 882 1.8
6 PI4CC 42,027 825 2.0
7 EA8RM 32,842 791 2.4
8 ZW8T 11,756 789 6.7
9 HG7T 68,957 763 1.1
10 VY2TT 46,723 757 1.6


2014--2023 SSB -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥500 QSOs)
Position Call QSOs Busts % Busts
1 K2JMY 1,278 217 17.0
2 IS0AGY 527 86 16.3
3 YB2BNN 632 87 13.8
4 EA7JQT 572 71 12.4
5 R9MBY 534 63 11.8
6 OH1TS 763 88 11.5
7 EA1HTF 1,762 177 10.0
8 UR5ZDZ 1,107 111 10.0
9 EA4GWL 931 91 9.8
10 EA8DEG 1,125 108 9.6

2014--2023 CW -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥500 QSOs)
Position Call QSOs Busts % Busts
1 W2UDT 564 138 24.5
2 4Z5FW 527 108 20.5
3 BD3MV 708 145 20.5
4 DJ5UZ 723 136 18.8
5 SP2EPV 510 93 18.2
6 AE3D 775 140 18.1
7 DL7CO 827 140 16.9
8 CE6VMO 695 111 16.0
9 LZ1BY 789 124 15.7
10 PY1NSC 573 89 15.5

2014--2023 SSB -- Most Reverse Busts
Position Call QSOs Reverse Busts % Reverse Busts
1 DF0HQ 85,290 2,560 3.0
2 CN3A 86,528 1,178 1.4
3 JA3YBK 33,724 1,115 3.3
4 TM3R 24,257 1,049 4.3
5 K3LR 65,887 977 1.5
6 YT5A 73,097 951 1.3
7 EA8RM 32,239 923 2.9
8 CA3CLF 982 915 93.2
9 IK2YCW 25,411 830 3.3
10 OT5A 59,537 809 1.4

2014--2023 CW -- Most Reverse Busts
Position Call QSOs Reverse Busts % Reverse Busts
1 DF0HQ 80,526 2,549 3.2
2 JS3CTQ 20,632 2,405 11.7
3 ES9C 59,518 1,862 3.1
4 RM9A 72,978 1,803 2.5
5 HG7T 68,957 1,656 2.4
6 YT5A 90,512 1,560 1.7
7 R2VM 1,426 1,426 100.0
8 K3LR 70,437 1,403 2.0
9 HG6N 47,920 1,361 2.8
10 DR4A 54,247 1,339 2.5


2014--2023 SSB -- Highest Percentage of Reverse Busts (≥500 QSOs)
Position Call QSOs % Reverse Busts
1 CA3CLF 982 93.2
2 PT4Z 1,011 20.3
3 DX3EVM 847 12.2
4 ZP6DYA 963 12.1
5 OG60F 4,258 11.4
6 OA4DKN 511 11.4
7 BH7PCT 846 10.9
8 LU9DDJ 862 10.4
9 HS3PIK 674 9.9
10 BY4DX 1,611 9.9

2014--2023 CW -- Highest Percentage of Reverse Busts (≥500 QSOs)
Position Call QSOs % Reverse Busts
1 R2VM 1,426 100.0
2 UT3NK 528 100.0
3 YT65A 1,149 37.2
4 G3RWF 2,682 35.5
5 5K0A 1,853 32.1
6 PE75W 1,408 29.3
7 OG55W 3,265 28.6
8 TA1C/2 1,513 18.1
9 DP65HSC 516 16.9
10 5J1E 1,523 15.6