## 2017-09-12

### Stations With Lowest Probability of Busting a Call: CQ WW SSB 2005 to 2016

Prior posts in this series:
In this post I list the stations with the lowest probabilities of busting a call in CQ WW SSB from 2005 to 2016, using the procedure developed in the second post above.

2005 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 OH5BM 0.0005 1904 0
2 9A2EU 0.0008 1175 0
3 N5AU 0.0012 802 0
4 UA1OMX 0.0015 649 0
5 V31MQ 0.0017 563 0
6 UR6IJ 0.0018 533 0
7 ES5RY 0.00191068 1
8 KF2O 0.0020 488 0
9 DL3BRA 0.0021 470 0
10 EA1JO 0.0022 457 0

It is also interesting to plot the aggregated probability function for $p_{bust}$, weighted by the number of verified QSOs, $Q_v$, for all stations:

The location of the vertical line represents the weighted mean of the probability curve.

2006 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 VA7RR 0.0008 1192 0
2 W1CU 0.0009 1052 0
3 PA0JNH 0.0012 795 0
4 EI4DW 0.0014 700 0
5 9A2EU 0.0015 1346 1
6 YM2W 0.0015 649 0
7 PC4M 0.0015647 0
8 K1GU 0.0015 630 0
9 AA8LL 0.0016 592 0
10 LY3CY 0.0017 588 0

2007 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 IZ3KKE 0.0014 668 0
2 VR10XLN 0.0015 629 0
3 N2LBR 0.0016 590 0
4 RV6LFE 0.0017 1203 1
5 DL4LBK 0.0019 519 0
6 LY3CY 0.0019 516 0
7 DH0GHU 0.00201017 1
8 LY4DX 0.0020 489 0
9 9M6XRO 0.0020 485 0
10 K0GEO 0.0021 471 0

2008 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 DL9DRA 0.0011 821 0
2 AL9A 0.0012 813 0
3 K3OO 0.0012 804 0
4 W2IRT 0.0012 779 0
5 IU9A 0.0013 762 0
6 N8BJQ 0.0015 652 0
7 VE4EAR 0.0016608 0
8 K3WI 0.0016 597 0
9 DF2RG 0.0017 564 0
10 MU0GSY 0.0017 559 0

2009 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 PY2EX 0.0009 1065 0
2 JS3CTQ 0.0011 858 0
3 UN2E 0.0013 718 0
4 UA3LHL 0.0014 711 0
5 VE2IM 0.0014 2804 3
6 AA8LL 0.0014 676 0
7 K3WI 0.0015656 0
8 KG4W 0.0016 604 0
9 N2ZX 0.0016 595 0
10 OQ5M 0.0016 592 0

2010 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 RW1CW 0.0007 1266 0
2 S56A 0.0009 1108 0
3 N0HR 0.0011 860 0
4 TM4W 0.0012 821 0
5 N4PQX 0.0012 770 0
6 DF2RG 0.0014 669 0
7 DK5DQ 0.00141384 1
8 W6YA 0.0015 647 0
9 DJ5MW 0.0015 1970 2
10 KR2Q 0.0015 631 0

2011 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 W4ZV 0.0006 1464 0
2 N4TZ 0.0007 1374 0
3 NW2K 0.0010 896 0
4 LY3CY 0.0012 826 0
5 K7EDX 0.0012 815 0
6 SP9XCN 0.0012 3256 3
7 DL3LAB 0.0013763 0
8 S56A 0.0013 741 0
9 LY5E 0.0014 712 0
10 W4EF 0.0014 684 0

2012 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 N1IBM 0.0010 914 0
2 K3TEJ 0.0011 878 0
3 LZ1DM 0.0012 815 0
4 HB9ARF 0.0012 799 0
5 ND0C 0.0013 764 0
6 K0AP 0.0013 763 0
7 JM1NKT 0.0013750 0
8 DF2RG 0.0013 747 0
9 AA4R 0.0013 734 0
10 K2RD 0.0014 708 0

2013 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 N1EU 0.0006 1603 0
2 9A2EU 0.0007 1399 0
3 W3GQ 0.0007 1280 0
4 NW0M 0.0009 1025 0
5 LY3CY 0.0010 956 0
6 DM5EE 0.0011 854 0
7 RU3SD 0.0011849 0
8 DK2CX 0.0013 1563 1
9 G4IIY 0.0013 747 0
10 OR2A 0.0014 747 0

2014 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 DL1NKS 0.0005 1751 0
2 W3GQ 0.0006 1471 0
3 RU6K 0.0007 1284 0
4 DL1NEO 0.0008 1145 0
5 N9ZM 0.0010 971 0
6 N4PQX 0.0010 967 0
7 LI5LJA 0.0010958 0
8 NM1C 0.0010 953 0
9 K5ZD 0.0011 2713 2
10 RA4DR 0.0011 857 0

2015 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 ES2MC 0.0007 1371 0
2 K5LLA 0.0007 1346 0
3 N2SQW 0.0008 1137 0
4 N4KG 0.0010 911 0
5 PZ5RA 0.0011 1892 1
6 S56A 0.0011 894 0
7 VA7RR 0.00111789 1
8 VE3CV 0.0011 850 0
9 OH6GDX 0.0012 818 0
10 N5ZC 0.0012 774 0

2016 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 DL7URH 0.0008 1209 0
2 W1GD 0.0009 1065 0
3 DK2LO 0.0011 869 0
4 N4KG 0.0012 809 0
5 OE1HHB 0.0012 807 0
6 N4PQX 0.0013 759 0
7 DL9DRA 0.0013754 0
8 I4XNN 0.0013 743 0
9 R7MM 0.0013 717 0
10 DJ6OZ 0.0014 697 0

NB: it is, of course, much easier to copy a callsign correctly if one calls stations rather than running them. Indeed, a reasonably careful station that restricts itself to calling others should never make a mistake in copying a callsign. In the above analysis, there is no attempt to distinguish which station is calling which. Therefore we will refine this analysis in a later post, restricting it to running stations.

One thing stands out from the above plots: the distribution function for $p_{bust}$ across all entrants is remarkably robust. Here is a plot of the weighted mean of $p_{bust}$ as a function of time:

The long-term trend is for an improvement in accuracy (obviously a good thing), but the last few years seem to have stabilised around a mean weighted probability of a bust of about 1.7%.

If you wish to perform your own analyses, a file of the SSB weighted means of the $p_{bust}$ probability function for each individual station (not just the top-ten stations listed above) is available for the period 2005 to 2016. (You can, of course, create your own dataset(s) from the full augmented data files.)