Stations With Lowest Probability of Busting a Call: CQ WW SSB 2005 to 2016

Prior posts in this series:

• Initial analysis
• Further analysis

In this post I list the stations with the lowest probabilities of busting a call in CQ WW SSB from 2005 to 2016, using the procedure developed in the second post above.

2005 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	OH5BM	0.0005	1904	0
2	9A2EU	0.0008	1175	0
3	N5AU	0.0012	802	0
4	UA1OMX	0.0015	649	0
5	V31MQ	0.0017	563	0
6	UR6IJ	0.0018	533	0
7	ES5RY	0.0019	1068	1
8	KF2O	0.0020	488	0
9	DL3BRA	0.0021	470	0
10	EA1JO	0.0022	457	0

It is also interesting to plot the aggregated probability function for $p_{bust}$, weighted by the number of verified QSOs, $Q_v$, for all stations:

The location of the vertical line represents the weighted mean of the probability curve.

2006 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	VA7RR	0.0008	1192	0
2	W1CU	0.0009	1052	0
3	PA0JNH	0.0012	795	0
4	EI4DW	0.0014	700	0
5	9A2EU	0.0015	1346	1
6	YM2W	0.0015	649	0
7	PC4M	0.0015	647	0
8	K1GU	0.0015	630	0
9	AA8LL	0.0016	592	0
10	LY3CY	0.0017	588	0

2007 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	IZ3KKE	0.0014	668	0
2	VR10XLN	0.0015	629	0
3	N2LBR	0.0016	590	0
4	RV6LFE	0.0017	1203	1
5	DL4LBK	0.0019	519	0
6	LY3CY	0.0019	516	0
7	DH0GHU	0.0020	1017	1
8	LY4DX	0.0020	489	0
9	9M6XRO	0.0020	485	0
10	K0GEO	0.0021	471	0

2008 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	DL9DRA	0.0011	821	0
2	AL9A	0.0012	813	0
3	K3OO	0.0012	804	0
4	W2IRT	0.0012	779	0
5	IU9A	0.0013	762	0
6	N8BJQ	0.0015	652	0
7	VE4EAR	0.0016	608	0
8	K3WI	0.0016	597	0
9	DF2RG	0.0017	564	0
10	MU0GSY	0.0017	559	0

2009 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	PY2EX	0.0009	1065	0
2	JS3CTQ	0.0011	858	0
3	UN2E	0.0013	718	0
4	UA3LHL	0.0014	711	0
5	VE2IM	0.0014	2804	3
6	AA8LL	0.0014	676	0
7	K3WI	0.0015	656	0
8	KG4W	0.0016	604	0
9	N2ZX	0.0016	595	0
10	OQ5M	0.0016	592	0

2010 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	RW1CW	0.0007	1266	0
2	S56A	0.0009	1108	0
3	N0HR	0.0011	860	0
4	TM4W	0.0012	821	0
5	N4PQX	0.0012	770	0
6	DF2RG	0.0014	669	0
7	DK5DQ	0.0014	1384	1
8	W6YA	0.0015	647	0
9	DJ5MW	0.0015	1970	2
10	KR2Q	0.0015	631	0

2011 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	W4ZV	0.0006	1464	0
2	N4TZ	0.0007	1374	0
3	NW2K	0.0010	896	0
4	LY3CY	0.0012	826	0
5	K7EDX	0.0012	815	0
6	SP9XCN	0.0012	3256	3
7	DL3LAB	0.0013	763	0
8	S56A	0.0013	741	0
9	LY5E	0.0014	712	0
10	W4EF	0.0014	684	0

2012 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	N1IBM	0.0010	914	0
2	K3TEJ	0.0011	878	0
3	LZ1DM	0.0012	815	0
4	HB9ARF	0.0012	799	0
5	ND0C	0.0013	764	0
6	K0AP	0.0013	763	0
7	JM1NKT	0.0013	750	0
8	DF2RG	0.0013	747	0
9	AA4R	0.0013	734	0
10	K2RD	0.0014	708	0

2013 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	N1EU	0.0006	1603	0
2	9A2EU	0.0007	1399	0
3	W3GQ	0.0007	1280	0
4	NW0M	0.0009	1025	0
5	LY3CY	0.0010	956	0
6	DM5EE	0.0011	854	0
7	RU3SD	0.0011	849	0
8	DK2CX	0.0013	1563	1
9	G4IIY	0.0013	747	0
10	OR2A	0.0014	747	0

2014 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	DL1NKS	0.0005	1751	0
2	W3GQ	0.0006	1471	0
3	RU6K	0.0007	1284	0
4	DL1NEO	0.0008	1145	0
5	N9ZM	0.0010	971	0
6	N4PQX	0.0010	967	0
7	LI5LJA	0.0010	958	0
8	NM1C	0.0010	953	0
9	K5ZD	0.0011	2713	2
10	RA4DR	0.0011	857	0

2015 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	ES2MC	0.0007	1371	0
2	K5LLA	0.0007	1346	0
3	N2SQW	0.0008	1137	0
4	N4KG	0.0010	911	0
5	PZ5RA	0.0011	1892	1
6	S56A	0.0011	894	0
7	VA7RR	0.0011	1789	1
8	VE3CV	0.0011	850	0
9	OH6GDX	0.0012	818	0
10	N5ZC	0.0012	774	0

2016 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	DL7URH	0.0008	1209	0
2	W1GD	0.0009	1065	0
3	DK2LO	0.0011	869	0
4	N4KG	0.0012	809	0
5	OE1HHB	0.0012	807	0
6	N4PQX	0.0013	759	0
7	DL9DRA	0.0013	754	0
8	I4XNN	0.0013	743	0
9	R7MM	0.0013	717	0
10	DJ6OZ	0.0014	697	0

NB: it is, of course, much easier to copy a callsign correctly if one calls stations rather than running them. Indeed, a reasonably careful station that restricts itself to calling others should never make a mistake in copying a callsign. In the above analysis, there is no attempt to distinguish which station is calling which. Therefore we will refine this analysis in a later post, restricting it to running stations.

One thing stands out from the above plots: the distribution function for $p_{bust}$ across all entrants is remarkably robust. Here is a plot of the weighted mean of $p_{bust}$ as a function of time:

The long-term trend is for an improvement in accuracy (obviously a good thing), but the last few years seem to have stabilised around a mean weighted probability of a bust of about 1.7%.

If you wish to perform your own analyses, a file of the SSB weighted means of the $p_{bust}$ probability function for each individual station (not just the top-ten stations listed above) is available for the period 2005 to 2016. (You can, of course, create your own dataset(s) from the full augmented data files.)