## 2017-09-18

### Stations With Lowest Probability of Busting a Call: CQ WW CW 2005 to 2016

Prior posts in this series:
In this post I list the stations with the lowest probabilities of busting a call in CQ WW CW from 2005 to 2016, using the procedure developed in the second post above. This is the same methodology as was used in the third post.

2005 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 LZ9R 0.0008 1210 0
2 HI3/SP9XCN 0.0008 2403 1
3 K1TO 0.0010 992 0
4 OK1FDR 0.0011 888 0
5 W5MX 0.0012 826 0
6 DK1MAX 0.0013 717 0
7 OK1JOC 0.0014701 1
8 DL6KVA 0.0014 698 0
9 OM8ON 0.0014 693 0
10 DF1DX 0.0015 656 0

As with SSB, we plot the aggregated probability function for $p_{bust}$, weighted by the number of verified QSOs, $Q_v$, for all stations:

As before, the location of the vertical line represents the weighted mean of the probability curve.

2006 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 DL5KUT 0.0007 1288 0
2 LY2MM 0.0008 1223 0
3 I2WIJ 0.0009 1091 0
4 OH8X 0.0009 2235 1
5 DL8DYL 0.0010 982 0
6 9A3GI 0.0010 953 0
7 HB9ARF 0.0012802 0
8 WE9V 0.0013 747 0
9 K1HT 0.0014 710 0
10 KR2Q 0.0014 693 0

2007 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 SM6CNN 0.0007 1267 0
2 DL8DYL 0.0008 1151 0
3 SP2LNW 0.0010 967 0
4 KQ3F 0.0012 828 0
5 W2LE 0.0012 784 0
6 TM6A 0.0012 1614 1
7 N9CK 0.0013765 0
8 K8CC 0.0013 763 0
9 UA1CUR 0.0013 760 0
10 W1MU 0.0013 744 0

2008 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 S56A 0.0007 1368 0
2 K6NA 0.0010 997 0
3 HA8FW 0.0011 900 0
4 DL1RG 0.0012 785 0
5 N9CK 0.0012 772 0
6 LY3BG 0.0014 684 0
7 K5ZD 0.00142827 3
8 PA0JNH 0.0015 640 0
9 JS3CTQ 0.0015 631 0
10 OK1JOC 0.0016 1287 1

2009 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 N4BP 0.0008 1229 0
2 LZ2SX 0.0008 1135 0
3 K1ZZ 0.0009 1009 0
4 W3OA 0.0010 988 0
5 OM0WR 0.0010 923 0
6 OK2BUT 0.0012 791 0
7 EY8MM 0.0013735 0
8 JP1QDH 0.0013 729 0
9 SM0Q 0.0014 709 0
10 KR2Q 0.0014 702 0

2010 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 YT2AAA 0.0007 1418 0
2 N2GC 0.0008 1200 0
3 SP9NSV 0.0008 1188 0
4 OK7T 0.0010 969 0
5 RZ3VO 0.0011 892 0
6 W6OAT 0.0012 806 0
7 VA7RN 0.0012771 0
8 OH8FKU 0.0013 741 0
9 OH6MW 0.0013 2267 2
10 G4HZV 0.0014 683 0

2011 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 LZ2SX 0.0007 1296 0
2 OR2F 0.0007 1293 0
3 W1ZT 0.0007 1266 0
4 W3OA 0.0008 1212 0
5 RN1ON 0.0008 1134 0
6 LZ9R 0.0008 2407 1
7 RG5A 0.00091080 0
8 UN9GD 0.0009 1079 0
9 US2IZ 0.0009 1050 0
10 DL1DVE 0.0010 951 0

2012 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 HB9ARF 0.0006 1601 0
2 JI1RXQ 0.0006 1514 0
3 DJ1YFK 0.0007 1266 0
4 DL4FN 0.0008 1166 0
5 SM6FKF 0.0009 1069 0
6 ES1WST 0.0009 1040 0
8 SM6CNN 0.0010 976 0
9 LY3CY 0.0011 895 0
10 SM5CIL 0.0011 887 0

2013 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 K1TO 0.0006 1569 0
2 VX7SZ 0.0006 1491 0
3 LY2NY 0.0006 1439 0
4 W2LE 0.0007 1369 0
5 IK8UND 0.0007 1297 0
6 UA3MIF 0.0009 1037 0
7 LY3CY 0.0010985 0
8 N0BK 0.0010 955 0
9 OM0WR 0.0010 949 0
10 AA7V 0.0011 900 0

2014 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 S54X 0.0005 2005 0
2 KM3T 0.0005 1829 0
3 5H3EE 0.0006 1637 0
4 S56A 0.0006 1622 0
5 OH6MW 0.0007 3024 1
6 YT2AAA 0.0007 1376 0
8 UW1WU 0.0007 1317 0
9 K2MK 0.0007 1302 0
10 M6W 0.0009 2267 1

2015 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 K6LL 0.0005 1922 0
2 LZ9R 0.0007 2833 1
3 K7UA 0.0007 1254 0
4 JI1RXQ 0.0008 1219 0
5 DH0GHU 0.0008 1216 0
6 RG5A 0.0008 1127 0
7 OM0WR 0.00081119 0
8 RX1A 0.0009 1099 0
9 RD9CX 0.0009 1093 0
10 RW5CW 0.0009 1071 0

2016 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 LY5W 0.0005 1850 0
2 KE3X 0.0006 1633 0
3 DM2M 0.0006 1563 0
4 K0KX 0.0007 1389 0
5 K1ZZ 0.0008 2555 1
6 RX7K 0.0009 1031 0
7 EW8W 0.00091017 0
8 K2PO 0.0010 977 0
9 OL4W 0.0010 975 0
10 LY3CY 0.0010 955 0

NB: As mentioned in the SSB analysis, it is, of course, much easier to copy a callsign correctly if one calls stations rather than running them. Indeed, a reasonably careful station that restricts itself to calling others should never make a mistake in copying a callsign. In the above analysis, there is no attempt to distinguish which station is calling which. Therefore we will refine this analysis in a later post, restricting it to running stations.

As with SSB, one thing stands out from the above plots: the distribution function for $p_{bust}$ across all entrants is remarkably robust. Here is a plot of the weighted mean of $p_{bust}$ as a function of time (the CW data are red; the SSB data are superimposed in black):

Just as for SSB, the long-term trend is for an improvement in accuracy, but the last few years seem to have stabilised around a mean weighted probability of a bust of about 1.6%. It is clear that the bust rate for CW is persistently better by a small amount than the rate for SSB (which is perhaps a surprising result).

If you wish to perform your own analyses, a file of the CW weighted means of the $p_{bust}$ probability function for each individual station (not just the top-ten stations listed above) is available for the period 2005 to 2016. (You can, of course, create your own dataset(s) from the full augmented data files.)