Busting Calls: CQ WW 2019

Prior posts in this series:

• Initial analysis
• Further analysis
• CQ WW SSB 2005 to 2016 
• CQ WW CW 2005 to 2016
• Non-Run QSOs, CQ WW 2005 to 2016
• Run QSOs, CQ WW 2005 to 2016
• 2017, 2018

Throughout this post, I apply the procedures developed in the second post above.

For the purpose of this post, only verified QSOs are counted.

Lowest Probability

I begin with an ordered list of the stations with the lowest probabilities of busting a call in 2019 CQ WW SSB.

2019 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	DL7URH	0.0008	1,125	0
2	DF2RG	0.0009	1,037	0
3	K0KX	0.0011	840	0
4	G4PVM	0.0012	819	0
5	N4PQX	0.0012	779	0
6	WA2FZB	0.0012	774	0
7	K3WJV	0.0013	741	0
8	N3ZA	0.0014	703	0
9	DL1MHJ	0.0014	682	0
10	G4IIY	0.0017	579	0

And for 2019 CQ WW CW:

2019 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (all)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	YU1RA	0.0006	1,515	0
2	K0KX	0.0007	1,387	0
3	RT3N	0.0008	1,236	0
4	UA3QPA	0.0008	1,204	0
5	W3KB	0.0008	1,179	0
6	N2GC	0.0008	1,168	0
7	VO2AC	0.0008	1,154	0
8	SQ8N	0.0008	1,118	0
9	YO8DOH	0.0009	1,104	0
10	OM6RM	0.0009	1,064	0

Well done to K0KX for appearing (and appearing near the top) of both tables.

It is interesting to plot the aggregated probability function for $p_{bust}$, weighted by the number of verified QSOs, $Q_v$, for all stations:

In case it isn't clear, the location of the solid vertical lines represent the weighted means of the probability curves.

We can limit the analysis to calling stations (i.e., not the running station).

2019 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (no-run)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	DL7URH	0.0009	1,041	0
2	DF2RG	0.0009	1,017	0
3	K0KX	0.0012	819	0
4	G4PVM	0.0012	814	0
5	G3TXF	0.0012	782	0
6	N4PQX	0.0013	745	0
7	K3WJV	0.0013	735	0
8	I2WIJ	0.0013	715	0
9	WA2FZB	0.0013	713	0
10	OK6Y	0.0014	709	0

2019 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (no-run)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	IR4X	0.0005	1,762	0
2	UT4U	0.0006	1,612	0
3	RT4M	0.0006	1,452	0
4	K0KX	0.0009	1,103	0
5	K3PH	0.0009	1,094	0
6	K1AR	0.0009	1,075	0
7	YO4NF	0.0009	1,075	0
8	LA4C	0.0009	1,074	0
9	RG5A	0.0009	1,062	0
10	AA9A	0.0009	1,058	0

And similarly for running stations.

2019 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (run)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	DG5MLA	0.0020	482	0
2	K6XX	0.0022	439	0
3	OG7A	0.0023	1,759	3
4	S58Y	0.0024	847	1
5	M0BJL	0.0024	409	0
6	9A2EU	0.0026	374	0
7	DM4X	0.0027	2,183	5
8	PT2AW	0.0029	333	0
9	N4BP	0.0030	330	0
10	IR4M	0.0030	4,042	11

2019 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (run)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	G4IIY	0.0007	1,369	0
2	YU1RA	0.0007	1,267	0
3	VO2AC	0.0012	825	0
4	LY5W	0.0014	697	0
5	OQ5M	0.0014	2,129	2
6	BY8MA	0.0016	596	0
7	DL6KWN	0.0016	589	0
8	N3RS	0.0017	1,815	2
9	V55A	0.0017	4,184	6
10	K3PH	0.0018	1,113	1

We can also look at the changes over the period from 2005 to 2019.

First for all QSOs:

Then for calling stations:

And for running stations:

I think it's also interesting to see who appears to have the lowest probability of busting  a call over an extended period. So, for the last ten years:

2010--2019 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (all)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	JM1NKT	0.0007	3,040	1
2	NW0M	0.0007	2,875	1
3	KV1J	0.0008	3,851	2
4	WA1ZYX	0.0008	1,196	0
5	NB3C	0.0009	1,066	0
6	IK4OMU	0.0009	1,039	0
7	OK2VWB	0.0009	1,023	0
8	AA1BU	0.0009	1,017	0
9	LY3CY	0.0009	5,333	4
10	ES2MC	0.0009	4,223	3

2010--2019 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (all)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	NW0M	0.0003	2,661	0
2	DJ1YFK	0.0004	2,150	0
3	JA1QOW	0.0004	4,774	1
4	HL1VAU	0.0004	4,718	1
5	KM3T	0.0005	1,826	0
6	EU4E	0.0005	3,715	1
7	WB4TDH	0.0006	5,230	2
8	R7MY	0.0006	3,266	1
9	VX7SZ	0.0006	1,491	0
10	UA3QPA	0.0007	3,095	1

Congratulations are definitely due to NW0M for that effort.

Highest Probability

We can also look at the calls associated with the highest probability of busting calls in either the forward or the reverse direction:

2019 SSB -- Most Busts
Position	Call	QSOs	Busts	% Busts
1	CN3A	9,554	195	2.0
2	EF8R	11,853	195	1.6
3	V26B	6,928	160	2.3
4	HI3LT	4,756	159	3.3
5	IR7T	5,878	152	2.6
6	PR4T	4,447	146	3.3
7	ED1R	6,409	132	2.1
8	LZ9W	8,457	130	1.5
9	ZF1A	5,986	128	2.1
10	OT5A	5,595	121	2.2

2019 CW -- Most Busts
Position	Call	QSOs	Busts	% Busts
1	9A/AI6V	1,833	263	14.3
2	EF8R	14,040	212	1.5
3	CN3A	11,458	168	1.5
4	JT5DX	6,338	161	2.5
5	NP2P	3,908	147	3.8
6	PZ5W	7,468	140	1.9
7	E7DX	6,794	129	1.9
8	ZW8T	1,276	127	10.0
9	F6KOP	4,745	125	2.6
10	TK0C	8,221	124	1.5

2019 SSB -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥100 QSOs)
Position	Call	QSOs	Busts	% Busts
1	RQ2K	177	28	15.8
2	YB2BNN	257	39	15.2
3	OH1POR	140	20	14.3
4	EA4GWL	296	39	13.2
5	DO1GMW	100	13	13.0
6	OZ0QF	138	17	12.3
7	K6DBS	140	16	11.4
8	PR7AD	106	12	11.3
9	YB7WW	151	17	11.3
10	OK2BOZ	117	13	11.1

2019 CW -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥100 QSOs)
Position	Call	QSOs	Busts	% Busts
1	LZ1BY	203	41	20.2
2	W4IT	302	57	18.9
3	K1EEE	132	24	18.2
4	K4KAY	143	26	18.2
5	TF3EO	151	27	17.9
6	W6SFG	175	30	17.1
7	K7TRF	133	22	16.5
8	VA3ZNW	110	18	16.4
9	OZ5KU	110	18	16.4
10	UV2IM	123	20	16.3

2019 SSB -- Most Reverse Busts
Position	Call	QSOs	Reverse Busts	% Reverse Busts
1	PR4T	4,447	336	7.6
2	EF8R	11,853	190	1.6
3	DF0HQ	7,267	186	2.6
4	HC0E	2,413	145	6.0
5	FY5KE	7,209	130	1.8
6	TM3R	4,494	118	2.6
7	ED7W	2,747	118	4.3
8	RO2E	3,262	117	3.6
9	HI3LT	4,756	112	2.4
10	IO5O	4,592	110	2.4

2019 CW -- Most Reverse Busts
Position	Call	QSOs	Reverse Busts	% Reverse Busts
1	HG5A	3,914	503	12.9
2	JS3CTQ	2,390	296	12.4
3	DF0HQ	8,553	281	3.3
4	IS0SWW	5,141	273	5.3
5	EF8R	14,040	263	1.9
6	4U25B	2,599	245	9.4
7	DR4A	6,589	220	3.3
8	RM9A	8,611	191	2.2
9	CN3A	11,458	190	1.7
10	ES9C	6,858	186	2.7

2010--2019 SSB -- Most Busts
Position	Call	QSOs	Busts	% Busts
1	LZ9W	85,297	1,486	1.7
2	CN3A	88,174	1,460	1.7
3	OT5A	69,012	1,350	2.0
4	PJ2T	71,872	1,339	1.9
5	A73A	65,680	1,281	2.0
6	EF8R	62,099	1,045	1.7
7	V26B	60,324	964	1.6
8	HG7T	57,597	831	1.4
9	D4C	58,631	806	1.4
10	RT6A	44,900	783	1.7

2010--2019 CW -- Most Busts
Position	Call	QSOs	Busts	% Busts
1	PJ2T	94,865	1,311	1.4
2	LZ9W	99,126	1,226	1.2
3	PV8ADI	8,127	1,177	14.5
4	PI4CC	50,515	977	1.9
5	D4C	64,411	860	1.3
6	9A1A	104,579	832	0.8
7	ZW8T	11,510	822	7.1
8	RW0A	50,926	808	1.6
9	PJ4A	71,047	803	1.1
10	JA3YBK	55,320	765	1.4

2010--2019 SSB -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥500 QSOs)
Position	Call	QSOs	Busts	% Busts
1	PV8ADI	858	139	16.2
2	K2JMY	2,062	305	14.8
3	EA7JQT	572	71	12.4
4	PU1MMZ	544	62	11.4
5	EA1HTF	1,389	153	11.0
6	PU2TRX	868	94	10.8
7	EA4GWL	686	71	10.3
8	YB9KA	557	56	10.1
9	LU6DCN	604	57	9.4
10	E20WXA	650	61	9.4

2010--2019 CW -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥500 QSOs)
Position	Call	QSOs	Busts	% Busts
1	W2UDT	811	167	20.6
2	4Z5FW	527	108	20.5
3	BD3MV	1,091	217	19.9
4	DJ5UZ	766	135	17.6
5	YO7LYM	1,711	291	17.0
6	JA3AHY	554	92	16.6
7	WP3Y	570	93	16.3
8	AE3D	1,016	161	15.8
9	YU1NIM	619	98	15.8
10	IK0YUO	558	83	14.9

2010--2019 SSB -- Most Reverse Busts
Position	Call	QSOs	Reverse Busts	% Reverse Busts
1	DF0HQ	79,637	2,309	2.9
2	JA3YBK	40,441	1,286	3.2
3	K3LR	69,289	1,062	1.5
4	CN2R	55,540	956	1.7
5	CN3A	88,174	921	1.0
6	WE3C	32,201	876	2.7
7	IK2YCW	26,491	857	3.2
8	EF8R	62,099	823	1.3
9	W3LPL	53,188	814	1.5
10	GM2T	38,631	802	2.1

2010--2019 CW -- Most Reverse Busts
Position	Call	QSOs	Reverse Busts	% Reverse Busts
1	JS3CTQ	25,282	3,215	12.7
2	DF0HQ	88,116	3,100	3.5
3	ES9C	66,020	2,020	3.1
4	W2FU	56,534	1,489	2.6
5	K3LR	75,096	1,451	1.9
6	DR1A	47,148	1,280	2.7
7	HG7T	62,301	1,270	2.0
8	IR4X	45,823	1,255	2.7
9	NR4M	55,964	1,253	2.2
10	DR4A	50,977	1,240	2.4

2010--2019 SSB -- Highest Percentage of Reverse Busts (≥500 QSOs)
Position	Call	QSOs	% Reverse Busts
1	CW90A	1,370	30.9
2	BA8AG	752	16.4
3	BW2/KU1CW	940	12.3
4	OG60F	4,258	11.4
5	ZP6DYA	1,226	11.3
6	V84SCQ	806	10.5
7	LU9DDJ	701	10.4
8	BV55D	919	10.2
9	JG3SVP	1,270	10.1
10	PP5BS	895	9.5

2010--2019 CW -- Highest Percentage of Reverse Busts (≥500 QSOs)
Position	Call	QSOs	% Reverse Busts
1	RZ3VO	892	100.0
2	G3RWF	943	99.9
3	YT65A	1,149	37.2
4	5K0A	1,853	32.1
5	PE75W	1,408	29.3
6	OG55W	3,265	28.6
7	DP65HSC	516	16.9
8	5J1E	1,523	15.6
9	SB0A	1,102	15.5
10	K3HW	1,044	14.9

In tables of reverse busts, one sometimes finds what seems like an unreasonable number of reverse busts (as, in the last table, for RZ3VO and G3RWF). This is generally caused by a discrepancy between the call actually sent by the listed station and the one recorded as being sent in at least some QSOs in the station's log.