D. R. Evans (N7DR): Stations With Lowest Probability of Busting a Call: CQ WW 2017 and 2018

Prior posts in this series:

Throughout this post, I apply the procedures developed in the second post above.

I begin with an ordered list of the stations with the lowest probabilities of busting a call in 2017 CQ WW SSB.

2017 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	OH0X	0.0010	978	0
2	C6ARW	0.0010	2,058	1
3	K1ZZ	0.0012	1,715	1
4	F4FTA	0.0012	800	0
5	DF2RG	0.0014	774	0
6	DJ8OG	0.0015	2,169	2
7	EW1P	0.0015	1,355	1
8	NH6V	0.0015	1,299	1
9	K2EP	0.0016	627	0
10	UW7W	0.0016	1,266	1

It is also interesting to plot the aggregated probability function for $p_{bust}$, weighted by the number of verified QSOs, $Q_v$, for all stations:

The location of the vertical line represents the weighted mean of the probability curve.

For 2018 CQ WW SSB:

2018 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	DF2RG	0.0011	887	0
2	N4PQX	0.0012	768	0
3	N9NB	0.0013	758	0
4	OM0WR	0.0013	732	0
5	KA1ZD	0.0013	1,500	1
6	YT5IVN	0.0014	1,402	1
7	WA2FZB	0.0015	628	0
8	JM1NKT	0.0016	602	0
9	KV1J	0.0017	582	0
10	W1CU	0.0017	579	0

For 2017 CQ WW CW:

2017 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	K0KX	0.0005	1,682	0
2	DM5EE	0.0006	1,430	0
3	K1ZZ	0.0007	3,028	1
4	YO5OHO	0.0007	1,376	0
5	DP4X	0.0007	1,315	0
6	WE9V	0.0007	1,256	0
7	UT4U	0.0008	1,244	0
8	JH8SLS	0.0008	1,206	0
9	SP6MLX	0.0009	1,077	0
10	K2XR	0.0009	1,069	0

For 2018 CQ WW CW:

2018 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	HB9ARF	0.0006	1,432	0
2	K6LL	0.0007	1,371	0
3	OM6RM	0.0007	1,286	0
4	UW1WU	0.0008	1,218	0
5	KG4V	0.0008	1,206	0
6	W3KB	0.0008	1,153	0
7	EW1P	0.0008	1,116	0
8	EU4E	0.0009	1,067	0
9	W2CDO	0.0009	1,011	0
10	DF2RG	0.0010	997	0

We can limit the analysis to calling stations (i.e., not the running station).

2017 CQ WW SSB and CW:

2017 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (non-run)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	EW1P	0.0008	1,132	0
2	DL6NDW	0.0012	829	0
3	DJ8OG	0.0013	762	0
4	DF2RG	0.0013	761	0
5	F4FTA	0.0015	633	0
6	K1ZZ	0.0015	1,304	1
7	SK6AW	0.0015	628	0
8	K2EP	0.0016	614	0
9	UW7W	0.0016	1,234	1
10	IZ4JMA	0.0016	592	0

2017 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (non-run)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	RM9A	0.0005	1,834	0
2	ES9C	0.0006	1,662	0
3	K0KX	0.0007	1,325	0
4	SP2LNW	0.0008	1,241	0
5	R7MM	0.0008	1,239	0
6	DM5EE	0.0008	1,160	0
7	ED2C	0.0008	1,122	0
8	RF9C	0.0009	1,096	0
9	LY3B	0.0009	1,068	0
10	UZ3A	0.0010	991	0

2018 CQ WW SSB and CW:

2018 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (non-run)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	9A2EU	0.0010	976	0
2	YT5IVN	0.0011	880	0
3	DF2RG	0.0011	868	0
4	K5ZD	0.0013	749	0
5	K3PP	0.0013	744	0
6	N4PQX	0.0013	736	3
7	LX7I	0.0015	632	0
8	N9NB	0.0015	628	0
9	WA2FZB	0.0016	589	0
10	K3OO	0.0017	575	0

2018 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (non-run)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	HG6N	0.0006	1,619	0
2	UX1VT	0.0007	1,391	0
3	S54X	0.0007	1,374	0
4	DL1WA	0.0007	1,307	0
5	K1AR	0.0008	1,209	0
6	NR4M	0.0008	1,148	0
7	RT4M	0.0008	1,138	0
8	LY5W	0.0008	1,111	0
9	K3PH	0.0009	1,100	0
10	W8FJ	0.0009	1,087	0

And similarly for running stations.

2017 CQ WW SSB and CW:

2017 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (run)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	C6ARW	0.0010	1,925	1
2	CF7RR	0.0013	1,557	1
3	OH0X	0.0014	694	0
4	HP1XT	0.0016	621	0
5	OH0V	0.0017	2,337	3
6	TK9R	0.0018	3,982	6
7	NH6V	0.0019	1,035	1
8	PY2KJ	0.0021	1,456	2
9	DJ8OG	0.0021	1,407	2
10	VA2WA	0.0022	1,853	3

2017 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (run)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	K1ZZ	0.0004	2,294	0
2	W1GD	0.0011	888	0
3	8S0DX	0.0011	873	0
4	SN1Y	0.0012	1,714	1
5	N3ER	0.0013	749	0
6	EU4E	0.0013	747	0
7	UT4U	0.0013	731	0
8	OM0WR	0.0013	1,517	1
9	JH8SLS	0.0014	710	0
10	S59ABC	0.0014	2,898	3

2018 CQ WW SSB and CW:

2018 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (run)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	OM0WR	0.0014	697	0
2	MI0I	0.0023	423	0
3	PY2KJ	0.0025	1,207	2
4	ZF9CW	0.0025	3,973	9
5	OQ5M	0.0025	1,190	2
6	KA1ZD	0.0026	381	0
7	PY2UD	0.0028	715	1
8	LY9A	0.0028	711	1
9	UW2M	0.0029	1,050	2
10	M0MCV	0.0029	1,049	2

2018 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (run)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	HB9ARF	0.0008	1,139	0
2	K8CX	0.0012	800	0
3	EU4E	0.0012	772	0
4	YU0A	0.0012	770	0
5	OH8X	0.0013	2,322	2
6	ZR2A	0.0013	1,485	1
7	R7MM	0.0014	691	0
8	UA9LAO	0.0014	682	0
9	DF3AX	0.0015	629	0
10	DK2GZ	0.0017	573	0