Busting Calls: CQ WW 2020

Prior posts in this series:

• Initial analysis
• Further analysis
• CQ WW SSB 2005 to 2016 
• CQ WW CW 2005 to 2016
• Non-Run QSOs, CQ WW 2005 to 2016
• Run QSOs, CQ WW 2005 to 2016
• 2017, 2018
• 2019
  

Throughout this post, I apply the procedures developed in the second post above.

For the purpose of this post, only verified QSOs are counted.

Lowest Probability

I begin with an ordered list of the stations with the lowest probabilities of busting a call in 2020 CQ WW SSB.

2020 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (all)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	LU1FAM	0.0007	1,400	0
2	DQ5T	0.0009	1,005	0
3	DF2RG	0.0010	957	0
4	DK1KC	0.0011	861	0
5	ND9G	0.0012	773	0
6	CR2X	0.0014	2,175	2
7	VE4VT	0.0014	2,174	2
8	UA9BA	0.0014	1,400	1
9	G3VPW	0.0014	671	0
10	W1GD	0.0015	1,336	1

And for 2020 CQ WW CW:

2020 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (all)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	DL4FN	0.0005	1,775	0
2	W2JU	0.0007	1,293	0
3	ES2MC	0.0008	1,166	0
4	LZ5EE	0.0008	1,164	0
5	K3PH	0.0008	2,411	1
6	K1ZZ	0.0008	3,586	2
7	OR2F	0.0009	2,347	1
8	AH6KO	0.0009	1,066	0
9	SQ8N	0.0009	1,061	0
10	WW4XX	0.0009	1,053	0

It is interesting to plot the aggregated probability function for $p_{bust}$, weighted by the number of verified QSOs, $Q_v$, for all stations:

In case it isn't clear, the location of the solid vertical lines represent the weighted means of the probability curves.

We can limit the analysis to calling stations (i.e., not the running station).

2020 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (no-run)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	DQ5T	0.0009	999	0
2	DF2RG	0.0011	858	0
3	DK1KC	0.0011	856	0
4	K3IE	0.0012	812	0
5	ND9G	0.0013	753	0
6	SP2GMA	0.0015	650	0
7	G3VPW	0.0015	636	0
8	W1GD	0.0016	1,277	1
9	N2RC	0.0016	608	0
10	WY3A	0.0016	1,236	1

2020 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (no-run)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	YU5R	0.0004	2,171	0
2	DL4FN	0.0006	1,526	0
3	SP2LNW	0.0007	1,399	0
4	RU3A	0.0007	1,259	0
5	SE5E	0.0007	1,256	0
6	R5DT	0.0008	1,244	0
7	K1AR	0.0008	1,220	0
8	AA3B	0.0008	1,174	0
9	K3PH	0.0008	1,128	0
10	SQ8N	0.0010	970	0

And similarly for running stations.

2020 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (run)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	LU1FAM	0.0007	1,353	0
2	CR2X	0.0014	2,169	2
3	DK8AX	0.0018	546	0
4	VE4VT	0.0018	1,687	2
5	YT7AW	0.0019	524	0
6	IK8UND	0.0019	1,025	1
7	N4BP	0.0021	457	0
8	UA9BA	0.0021	936	1
9	9M6NA	0.0022	450	0
10	OR2F	0.0022	903	1

2020 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (run)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	G4PVM	0.0009	1,021	0
2	ZR2A/4	0.0010	951	0
3	IT9SSI	0.0011	904	0
4	K1ZZ	0.0011	2,824	2
5	AH6KO	0.0011	869	0
6	EW8DX	0.0011	867	0
7	VR2CO	0.0012	822	0
8	ES2MC	0.0013	753	0
9	OR2F	0.0013	1,512	1
10	LZ1BP	0.0013	1,486	1

Congratulations to OR2F for appearing in both tables.

We can also look at the changes over the period from 2005 to 2020.

First for all QSOs:

Then for calling stations:

And for running stations:

I think it's also interesting to see who appears to have the lowest probability of busting  a call over an extended period. So, for the last ten years:

2011--2020 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (all)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	JM1NKT	0.0007	3,022	1
2	NW0M	0.0007	2,940	1
3	KV1J	0.0007	4,337	2
4	WA1ZYX	0.0007	1,335	0
5	K4RUM	0.0007	1,267	0
6	ES2MC	0.0008	3,697	2
7	IK4OMU	0.0008	1,136	0
8	NB3C	0.0009	1,066	0
9	K1RV	0.0009	4,340	3
10	LY3CY	0.0009	5,400	4

2011--2020 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (all)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	AD1C	0.0002	4,283	0
2	NW0M	0.0003	3,190	0
3	WB4TDH	0.0004	5,339	1
4	HL1VAU	0.0004	5,225	1
5	K6WSC	0.0004	4,872	1
6	WW4XX	0.0004	2,005	0
7	JA1QOW	0.0005	4,437	1
8	KM3T	0.0005	1,826	0
9	EU4E	0.0005	3,715	1
10	LZ2SX	0.0006	1,606	0

A good argument can be made that a better measure of copying ability is to consider only run QSOs:

2011--2020 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (run)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	R7MM	0.0008	1,191	0
2	F4FTA	0.0009	1,105	0
3	ES2MC	0.0009	2,250	1
4	EI4DW	0.0012	830	0
5	DL3LAB	0.0012	806	0
6	CF7RR	0.0013	1,557	1
7	EE1A	0.0014	673	0
8	SP9XCN	0.0014	2,764	3
9	WL7BDO	0.0015	660	0
10	VA7RR	0.0016	3,773	5

2011--2020 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (run)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	W3OA	0.0004	2,072	0
2	LY3CY	0.0006	1,654	0
3	RW5CW	0.0006	1,598	0
4	WB4TDH	0.0007	2,884	1
5	VX7SZ	0.0007	1,294	0
6	YU1RA	0.0008	2,558	1
7	KM3T	0.0008	1,186	0
8	DJ1YFK	0.0008	1,153	0
9	EU4E	0.0009	2,306	1
10	SM6FKF	0.0009	1,069	0

Highest Probability

We can also look at the calls associated with the highest probability of busting calls in either the forward or the reverse direction:

2020 SSB -- Most Busts
Position	Call	QSOs	Busts	% Busts
1	LZ9W	9,832	174	1.8
2	YT5A	9,413	132	1.4
3	II2S	6,955	131	1.9
4	ZF1A	5,172	126	2.4
5	RA5G	5,273	121	2.3
6	K1TTT	4,799	118	2.5
7	CQ8M	3,608	115	3.2
8	PR4T	4,690	112	2.4
9	EW5A	6,296	111	1.8
10	TM3R	4,684	106	2.3

2020 CW -- Most Busts
Position	Call	QSOs	Busts	% Busts
1	EA6FO	6,865	228	3.3
2	UZ2I	7,094	158	2.2
3	OZ5E	3,834	143	3.7
4	E7DX	6,693	132	2.0
5	YT5A	11,260	130	1.2
6	EF1A	4,375	128	2.9
7	UZ4E	2,308	125	5.4
8	PX2A	5,602	124	2.2
9	LN8W	8,994	123	1.4
10	K1TTT	5,558	119	2.1

2020 SSB -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥100 QSOs)
Position	Call	QSOs	Busts	% Busts
1	SP9WZO	105	22	21.0
2	YC9MX	149	28	18.8
3	OM8VL	103	19	18.4
4	R9YBW	276	47	17.0
5	JS1BIB	121	18	14.9
6	R2BAA	143	20	14.0
7	YB2YEN	134	18	13.4
8	IS0AGY	198	26	13.1
9	PY2NRT	101	13	12.9
10	M7MRX	109	14	12.8

2020 CW -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥100 QSOs)
Position	Call	QSOs	Busts	% Busts
1	W1HNZ	298	66	22.1
2	IK0YUO	112	21	18.8
3	N5ER	118	22	18.6
4	HG6E	133	24	18.0
5	DL7CO	128	23	18.0
6	DJ5UZ	119	20	16.8
7	I4LCK	192	31	16.1
8	LZ1BY	248	39	15.7
9	F5OKB	172	27	15.7
10	JM7SKE	154	23	14.9

2020 SSB -- Most Reverse Busts
Position	Call	QSOs	Reverse Busts	% Reverse Busts
1	DF0HQ	9,402	263	2.8
2	OM2Y	3,290	240	7.3
3	IR4X	2,157	195	9.0
4	TM3R	4,684	195	4.2
5	EA8RM	6,867	192	2.8
6	JH8YOH	1,568	185	11.8
7	EW5A	6,296	142	2.3
8	NN3W	3,086	139	4.5
9	IQ4FA	4,376	137	3.1
10	PX2A	6,022	130	2.2

2020 CW -- Most Reverse Busts
Position	Call	QSOs	Reverse Busts	% Reverse Busts
1	DR1A	7,885	308	3.9
2	UA4S	5,962	296	5.0
3	KP3DX	5,541	283	5.1
4	TA1C/2	1,513	274	18.1
5	SQ3PM	253	253	100.0
6	ES9C	8,107	251	3.1
7	YT5A	11,260	225	2.0
8	OK1MV	2,180	202	9.3
9	CR6K	8,650	192	2.2
10	9A3XV	3,316	190	5.7

2011--2020 SSB -- Most Busts
Position	Call	QSOs	Busts	% Busts
1	LZ9W	88,289	1,534	1.7
2	CN3A	80,599	1,393	1.7
3	A73A	61,796	1,222	2.0
4	PJ2T	66,003	1,214	1.8
5	OT5A	63,373	1,201	1.9
6	V26B	55,555	920	1.7
7	EF8R	54,369	875	1.6
8	HG7T	60,587	845	1.4
9	RT6A	46,042	792	1.7
10	ED1R	53,533	787	1.5

2011--2020 CW -- Most Busts
Position	Call	QSOs	Busts	% Busts
1	LZ9W	102,022	1,230	1.2
2	PJ2T	87,250	1,204	1.4
3	PV8ADI	7,851	1,118	14.2
4	PI4CC	47,401	908	1.9
5	ZW8T	12,253	881	7.2
6	D4C	58,867	801	1.4
7	RW0A	47,680	790	1.7
8	G3V	32,634	764	2.3
9	PJ4A	66,880	759	1.1
10	HG7T	66,589	739	1.1

2011--2020 SSB -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥500 QSOs)
Position	Call	QSOs	Busts	% Busts
1	PV8ADI	796	127	16.0
2	K2JMY	1,802	287	15.9
3	EA7JQT	572	71	12.4
4	EA1HTF	1,389	153	11.0
5	OH1TS	561	57	10.2
6	EA4GWL	931	91	9.8
7	K8TS	615	59	9.6
8	LU4DJB	672	64	9.5
9	YB9KA	706	67	9.5
10	PU2TRX	803	76	9.5

2011--2020 CW -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥500 QSOs)
Position	Call	QSOs	Busts	% Busts
1	4Z5FW	527	108	20.5
2	W2UDT	837	169	20.2
3	BD3MV	1,099	220	20.0
4	DJ5UZ	885	155	17.5
5	JA3AHY	554	92	16.6
6	WP3Y	570	93	16.3
7	LZ1BY	708	115	16.2
8	AE3D	1,016	161	15.8
9	YO7LYM	1,558	244	15.7
10	IK0YUO	670	104	15.5

2011--2020 SSB -- Most Reverse Busts
Position	Call	QSOs	Reverse Busts	% Reverse Busts
1	DF0HQ	81,900	2,403	2.9
2	JA3YBK	36,974	1,126	3.0
3	K3LR	66,312	1,054	1.6
4	TM3R	19,555	891	4.6
5	CN2R	51,062	877	1.7
6	CN3A	80,599	862	1.1
7	IK2YCW	26,491	857	3.2
8	W3LPL	51,773	801	1.5
9	HK1NA	40,363	788	2.0
10	HG1S	34,848	762	2.2

2011--2020 CW -- Most Reverse Busts
Position	Call	QSOs	Reverse Busts	% Reverse Busts
1	JS3CTQ	24,551	3,055	12.4
2	DF0HQ	79,932	2,817	3.5
3	ES9C	68,266	2,058	3.0
4	DR1A	55,033	1,588	2.9
5	W2FU	55,290	1,434	2.6
6	K3LR	70,578	1,369	1.9
7	HG7T	66,589	1,367	2.1
8	RM9A	54,157	1,194	2.2
9	EF8R	58,148	1,145	2.0
10	NR4M	50,909	1,143	2.2

2011--2020 SSB -- Highest Percentage of Reverse Busts (≥500 QSOs)
Position	Call	QSOs	% Reverse Busts
1	CW90A	1,370	30.9
2	CE6VMO	593	21.2
3	BA8AG	752	16.4
4	OG60F	4,258	11.4
5	ZP6DYA	1,226	11.3
6	LU9DDJ	800	10.6
7	V84SCQ	806	10.5
8	BV55D	919	10.2
9	YB2IQ	1,052	10.2
10	JG3SVP	1,270	10.1

2011--2020 CW -- Highest Percentage of Reverse Busts (≥500 QSOs)
Position	Call	QSOs	% Reverse Busts
1	G3RWF	1,459	64.8
2	YT65A	1,149	37.2
3	5K0A	1,853	32.1
4	PE75W	1,408	29.3
5	OG55W	3,265	28.6
6	TA1C/2	1,513	18.1
7	DP65HSC	516	16.9
8	5J1E	1,523	15.6
9	SB0A	1,102	15.5
10	LZ1195IR	576	14.6

In tables of reverse busts, one sometimes finds what seems like an unreasonable number of reverse busts (as, in the last table, for RZ3VO and G3RWF). This is generally caused by a discrepancy between the call actually sent by the listed station and the one recorded as being sent in at least some QSOs in the station's log.