## 2022-02-14

### Busting Calls: CQ WW 2021

Prior posts in this series:
Throughout this post, I apply the procedures developed in the second post above.

For the purpose of this post, only verified QSOs are counted.

### Lowest Probability

I begin with an ordered list of the stations with the lowest probabilities of busting a call in 2021 CQ WW SSB.

2021 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (all)
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 DF2RG 0.0010 998 0
2 DK1KC 0.0010 997 0
3 DL8RDL 0.0010 951 0
4 OH7GGX 0.0010 942 0
5 M3AWD 0.0010 923 0
6 CA3CLF 0.0010 912 0
7 G4NBS 0.0011 886 0
8 R7MM 0.0014 696 0
9 PG7M 0.0014 693 0
10 K2EP 0.0014 692 0

And for 2021 CQ WW CW:

2021 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (all)
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 UA3AP 0.0005 1,932 0
2 DL4FN 0.0005 1,925 0
3 DK8NT 0.0005 1,739 0
4 DP8M 0.0006 1,463 0
5 R2VM 0.0007 1,426 0
6 OH7GGX 0.0009 1,027 0
7 NA0N 0.0009 1,019 0
8 R5FQ 0.0010 949 0
9 N7IR 0.0010 944 0
10 YU1LM 0.0010 940 0

It is interesting to plot the aggregated probability function for $p_{bust}$ weighted by the verified number of QSOs, $Q_v$, for all stations:

In case it isn't clear, the location of the solid vertical lines represent the weighted means of the probability curves.

We can limit the analysis to calling stations (i.e., not the running station).

2021 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (no-run)
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 DK1KC 0.0010 991 0
2 OH7GGX 0.0010 939 0
3 DF2RG 0.0010 920 0
4 G4NBS 0.0011 880 0
5 IK2LFF 0.0012 830 0
6 M3AWD 0.0012 809 0
7 9A2EU 0.0012 793 0
8 OG6N 0.0012 771 0
9 WA2CP 0.0013 729 0
10 WB1DX 0.0014 712 0

2021 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (no-run)
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 DL4FN 0.0006 1,572 0
2 RA3AN 0.0006 1,547 0
3 UA3AP 0.0007 1,411 0
4 DK8NT 0.0007 1,369 0
5 DP8M 0.0009 1,099 0
6 RL6M 0.0009 2,250 1
7 R7MM 0.0009 1,049 0
8 YO8DOH 0.0010 994 0
9 OL0W 0.0010 987 0
10 PJ4K 0.0010 981 0

And similarly for running stations.

2021 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (run)
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 CA3CLF 0.0013 745 0
2 VA7RR 0.0017 1,721 2
3 VE2IM 0.0018 4,564 7
4 OH8X 0.0021 2,339 4
5 PY2UD 0.0022 440 0
6 VC3X 0.0024 1,239 2
7 W6DVS 0.0024 403 0
8 DK5PD 0.0025 813 1
9 HA5JI 0.0025 391 0
10 RA0R 0.0025 389 0

2021 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (run)
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 R2VM 0.0009 1,040 0
2 JI1RXQ 0.0013 763 0
3 OM3TZZ 0.0013 721 0
4 IZ8VYU 0.0013 714 0
5 5Z4VJ 0.0014 2,137 2
6 JH1QDB 0.0015 634 0
7 LA8HGA 0.0016 619 0
8 DM2M 0.0016 612 0
9 W3FIZ 0.0017 583 0
10 K1ZZ 0.0017 2,979 4

We can also look at the changes over the period from 2005 to 2021.

First for all QSOs:

Then for calling stations:

And for running stations:

I think it's also interesting to see who appears to have the lowest probability of busting a call over an extended period. So, for the last ten years:

2012--2021 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (all)
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 IK4OMU 0.0007 1,424 0
2 K0PC 0.0007 1,419 0
3 RU3SD 0.0007 1,313 0
4 ES2MC 0.0007 2,780 1
5 K4RUM 0.0007 1,267 0
6 JH8SLS 0.0008 1,163 0
7 JM1NKT 0.0008 2,477 1
8 K1ZZ 0.0008 4,885 3
9 OR2A 0.0008 1,140 0
10 IZ4JMA 0.0008 1,129 0

2012--2021 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (all)
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 HL1VAU 0.0002 4,324 0
2 NW0M 0.0002 3,532 0
3 SE6N 0.0004 5,304 1
4 WB4TDH 0.0004 5,218 1
6 K6WSC 0.0004 4,888 1
7 WW4XX 0.0004 2,005 0
8 JN3SAC 0.0005 6,571 2
9 DL4FN 0.0005 8,263 3
10 KM3T 0.0005 1,826 0

A good argument can be made that a better measure of copying ability is to consider only run QSOs:

2012--2021 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (run)
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 R7MM 0.0008 1,223 0
2 F4FTA 0.0009 1,108 0
3 ES2MC 0.0012 1,682 1
4 CF7RR 0.0013 1,557 1
5 K0AP 0.0013 727 0
6 EE1A 0.0014 673 0
7 VA7RR 0.0015 5,494 7
8 K1ZZ 0.0015 1,367 1
9 YT9M 0.0017 1,211 1
10 DL8RDL 0.0017 1,206 1

2012--2021 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (run)
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 W3OA 0.0005 1,799 0
2 LY3CY 0.0005 1,713 0
3 RW5CW 0.0006 1,647 0
4 SE6N 0.0006 1,486 0
5 WB4TDH 0.0007 2,800 1
6 VX7SZ 0.0007 1,294 0
7 WQ5L 0.0008 1,220 0
8 YU1RA 0.0008 2,558 1
9 KM3T 0.0008 1,186 0
10 UA3QAM 0.0009 1,089 0

#### Highest Probability

We can also look at the calls associated with the highest probability of busting calls in either the forward or the reverse direction:

2021 SSB -- Most Busts
Position Call QSOs Busts % Busts
1 LZ9W 10,561 197 1.9
2 HI3LT 5,081 173 3.4
3 CR6K 8,984 164 1.8
4 OT5A 7,469 160 2.1
5 YT5A 10,159 159 1.6
6 UA7K 6,289 149 2.4
7 RT6A 6,140 141 2.3
8 ED1R 7,892 125 1.6
9 A73A 9,221 120 1.3
10 K1TTT 4,693 118 2.5

2021 CW -- Most Busts
Position Call QSOs Busts % Busts
1 TK0C 14,766 237 1.6
2 PI4CC 7,777 213 2.7
3 UA7K 7,873 190 2.4
4 F6KOP 7,439 183 2.5
5 PT4A 4,073 181 4.4
6 3B8M 8,698 156 1.8
7 RW0A 11,039 148 1.3
8 PJ4K 10,577 142 1.3
9 RT6A 6,879 138 2.0
10 TO7A 5,934 135 2.3

2021 SSB -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥100 QSOs)
Position Call QSOs Busts % Busts
1 IS0AGY 116 25 21.6
2 OM3ZAH 107 17 15.9
3 WA3RGH 102 16 15.7
4 I4PZP 182 27 14.8
5 OH1TS 163 24 14.7
6 R8CAX 103 15 14.6
7 R9MBY 202 29 14.4
8 R3PIQ 125 17 13.6
9 BD7OYA 263 34 12.9
10 WB7EUJ 102 13 12.7

2021 CW -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥100 QSOs)
Position Call QSOs Busts % Busts
1 IS0ILP 107 25 23.4
2 DL7CO 117 26 22.2
3 DF6ON 107 22 20.6
4 EA3ERD 147 28 19.0
5 SP2EPV 116 22 19.0
6 K2HYD 111 20 18.0
7 UT5KL 151 27 17.9
8 CL3OR 245 42 17.1
9 VE3EKA 100 17 17.0
10 K9XR 165 28 17.0

2021 SSB -- Most Reverse Busts
Position Call QSOs Reverse Busts % Reverse Busts
1 CA3CLF 912 912 100.0
2 DF0HQ 9,555 310 3.2
3 EA8RM 6,712 199 3.0
4 YT5A 10,159 182 1.8
5 4X1DX 4,132 181 4.4
6 PX2A 6,492 161 2.5
7 Z60A 4,227 159 3.8
8 TM3R 4,702 158 3.4
9 EW5A 10,234 156 1.5
10 JA3YBK 3,915 137 3.5

2021 CW -- Most Reverse Busts
Position Call QSOs Reverse Busts % Reverse Busts
1 R2VM 1,426 1,426 100.0
2 ES9C 10,492 343 3.3
3 DF0HQ 9,565 268 2.8
4 UA4S 6,407 263 4.1
5 TK0C 14,766 250 1.7
6 OH3ZG 241 241 100.0
7 JF1NHD 2,801 240 8.6
8 RW0A 11,039 216 2.0
9 JS3CTQ 2,278 212 9.3
10 UA4M 8,992 206 2.3

2021 SSB -- Highest Percentage of Reverse Busts (≥100 QSOs)
Position Call QSOs % Reverse Busts
1 CA3CLF 912 100.0
2 BH7PCT 395 20.0
3 UA3R 125 16.0
4 DW2AFO 309 14.6
5 OM7AHJ 134 14.2
6 HB9HGI 110 13.6
7 N3UA 542 13.5
8 KO4HMB 102 12.7
9 VK2K 252 12.7
10 CA1FCS 174 12.6

2021 CW -- Highest Percentage of Reverse Busts (≥100 QSOs)
Position Call QSOs % Reverse Busts
1 OH3ZG 241 100.0
2 R2VM 1,426 100.0
3 OE120BKC 174 28.7
4 JS2GYN 114 19.3
5 BH4CAC 122 14.8
6 R7RBE 165 14.5
7 K3HW 526 13.7
8 V85T 239 13.0
9 HA7SQ 477 12.4
10 KB4MD 236 12.3

In tables of reverse busts, one sometimes finds what seems like an unreasonable number of reverse busts (as, in the last two tables, for CA3CLF, OH3ZG and R2VM). This is generally caused by a discrepancy between the call actually sent by the listed station and the one recorded as being sent in at least some QSOs in the station's log.

2012--2021 SSB -- Most Busts
Position Call QSOs Busts % Busts
1 LZ9W 90,841 1,620 1.8
2 CN3A 74,906 1,359 1.8
3 A73A 63,716 1,230 1.9
4 OT5A 62,915 1,216 1.9
5 PJ2T 69,092 1,182 1.7
6 V26B 54,741 946 1.7
7 II2S 43,883 844 1.9
8 ED1R 55,290 841 1.5
9 HG7T 60,338 817 1.4
10 RT6A 47,522 808 1.7

2012--2021 CW -- Most Busts
Position Call QSOs Busts % Busts
1 LZ9W 103,757 1,190 1.1
2 PJ2T 88,714 1,177 1.3
3 PI4CC 51,789 1,057 2.0
4 TK0C 60,962 904 1.5
5 RW0A 54,499 886 1.6
6 ZW8T 12,253 881 7.2
8 JA3YBK 49,522 789 1.6
9 G3V 34,468 787 2.3
10 D4C 52,522 761 1.4

2012--2021 SSB -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥500 QSOs)
Position Call QSOs Busts % Busts
1 K2JMY 1,632 262 16.1
2 EA7JQT 572 71 12.4
3 OH1TS 725 82 11.3
4 EA1HTF 1,470 160 10.9
5 EA4GWL 931 91 9.8
6 LU4DJB 672 64 9.5
7 YB9KA 706 67 9.5
8 PU2TRX 803 76 9.5
9 UY3CC 1,536 143 9.3
10 E20WXA 688 64 9.3

2012--2021 CW -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥500 QSOs)
Position Call QSOs Busts % Busts
1 W2UDT 668 148 22.2
2 BD3MV 961 198 20.6
3 4Z5FW 527 108 20.5
4 DJ5UZ 723 136 18.8
5 WP3Y 570 93 16.3
6 LZ1BY 708 115 16.2
7 AE3D 1,016 161 15.8
8 DL7CO 810 127 15.7
9 IK0YUO 670 104 15.5
10 YO7LYM 1,697 254 15.0

2012--2021 SSB -- Most Reverse Busts
Position Call QSOs Reverse Busts % Reverse Busts
1 DF0HQ 84,060 2,426 2.9
2 JA3YBK 35,341 1,133 3.2
3 K3LR 67,184 1,068 1.6
4 TM3R 24,257 1,049 4.3
5 CA3CLF 982 915 93.2
6 IK2YCW 26,490 857 3.2
7 CN3A 74,906 811 1.1
8 W3LPL 49,498 799 1.6
9 HK1NA 40,363 788 2.0
10 CN2R 45,445 779 1.7

2012--2021 CW -- Most Reverse Busts
Position Call QSOs Reverse Busts % Reverse Busts
1 JS3CTQ 24,073 2,938 12.2
2 DF0HQ 80,064 2,694 3.4
3 ES9C 72,304 2,252 3.1
4 HG7T 67,691 1,444 2.1
5 R2VM 1,426 1,426 100.0
6 W2FU 52,558 1,412 2.7
7 RM9A 63,391 1,399 2.2
8 K3LR 70,734 1,364 1.9
9 DR1A 44,217 1,289 2.9
10 DR4A 52,236 1,236 2.4

2012--2021 SSB -- Highest Percentage of Reverse Busts (≥500 QSOs)
Position Call QSOs % Reverse Busts
1 CA3CLF 982 93.2
2 CW90A 1,370 30.9
3 CE6VMO 593 21.2
4 BA8AG 752 16.4
5 OG60F 4,258 11.4
6 ZP6DYA 1,225 11.3
7 BH7PCT 846 10.9
8 LU9DDJ 862 10.4
9 BV55D 919 10.2
10 BG6SNJ 802 10.1

2012--2021 CW -- Highest Percentage of Reverse Busts (≥500 QSOs)
Position Call QSOs % Reverse Busts
1 R2VM 1,426 100.0
2 G3RWF 1,459 64.8
3 YT65A 1,149 37.2
4 5K0A 1,853 32.1
5 PE75W 1,408 29.3
6 OG55W 3,265 28.6
7 TA1C/2 1,513 18.1
8 DP65HSC 516 16.9
9 5J1E 1,523 15.6
10 SB0A 1,102 15.5