Busting Calls: CQ WW 2021

Prior posts in this series:

• Initial analysis
• Further analysis
• CQ WW SSB 2005 to 2016 
• CQ WW CW 2005 to 2016
• Non-Run QSOs, CQ WW 2005 to 2016
• Run QSOs, CQ WW 2005 to 2016
• 2017, 2018
• 2019
• 2020 
  

Throughout this post, I apply the procedures developed in the second post above.

For the purpose of this post, only verified QSOs are counted.

Lowest Probability

I begin with an ordered list of the stations with the lowest probabilities of busting a call in 2021 CQ WW SSB.

2021 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (all)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	DF2RG	0.0010	998	0
2	DK1KC	0.0010	997	0
3	DL8RDL	0.0010	951	0
4	OH7GGX	0.0010	942	0
5	M3AWD	0.0010	923	0
6	CA3CLF	0.0010	912	0
7	G4NBS	0.0011	886	0
8	R7MM	0.0014	696	0
9	PG7M	0.0014	693	0
10	K2EP	0.0014	692	0

And for 2021 CQ WW CW:

2021 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (all)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	UA3AP	0.0005	1,932	0
2	DL4FN	0.0005	1,925	0
3	DK8NT	0.0005	1,739	0
4	DP8M	0.0006	1,463	0
5	R2VM	0.0007	1,426	0
6	OH7GGX	0.0009	1,027	0
7	NA0N	0.0009	1,019	0
8	R5FQ	0.0010	949	0
9	N7IR	0.0010	944	0
10	YU1LM	0.0010	940	0

It is interesting to plot the aggregated probability function for $p_{bust}$ weighted by the verified number of QSOs, $Q_v$, for all stations:

In case it isn't clear, the location of the solid vertical lines represent the weighted means of the probability curves.

We can limit the analysis to calling stations (i.e., not the running station).

2021 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (no-run)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	DK1KC	0.0010	991	0
2	OH7GGX	0.0010	939	0
3	DF2RG	0.0010	920	0
4	G4NBS	0.0011	880	0
5	IK2LFF	0.0012	830	0
6	M3AWD	0.0012	809	0
7	9A2EU	0.0012	793	0
8	OG6N	0.0012	771	0
9	WA2CP	0.0013	729	0
10	WB1DX	0.0014	712	0

2021 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (no-run)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	DL4FN	0.0006	1,572	0
2	RA3AN	0.0006	1,547	0
3	UA3AP	0.0007	1,411	0
4	DK8NT	0.0007	1,369	0
5	DP8M	0.0009	1,099	0
6	RL6M	0.0009	2,250	1
7	R7MM	0.0009	1,049	0
8	YO8DOH	0.0010	994	0
9	OL0W	0.0010	987	0
10	PJ4K	0.0010	981	0

And similarly for running stations.

2021 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (run)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	CA3CLF	0.0013	745	0
2	VA7RR	0.0017	1,721	2
3	VE2IM	0.0018	4,564	7
4	OH8X	0.0021	2,339	4
5	PY2UD	0.0022	440	0
6	VC3X	0.0024	1,239	2
7	W6DVS	0.0024	403	0
8	DK5PD	0.0025	813	1
9	HA5JI	0.0025	391	0
10	RA0R	0.0025	389	0

2021 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (run)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	R2VM	0.0009	1,040	0
2	JI1RXQ	0.0013	763	0
3	OM3TZZ	0.0013	721	0
4	IZ8VYU	0.0013	714	0
5	5Z4VJ	0.0014	2,137	2
6	JH1QDB	0.0015	634	0
7	LA8HGA	0.0016	619	0
8	DM2M	0.0016	612	0
9	W3FIZ	0.0017	583	0
10	K1ZZ	0.0017	2,979	4

We can also look at the changes over the period from 2005 to 2021.

First for all QSOs:

Then for calling stations:

 

And for running stations:

 

I think it's also interesting to see who appears to have the lowest probability of busting a call over an extended period. So, for the last ten years:

2012--2021 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (all)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	IK4OMU	0.0007	1,424	0
2	K0PC	0.0007	1,419	0
3	RU3SD	0.0007	1,313	0
4	ES2MC	0.0007	2,780	1
5	K4RUM	0.0007	1,267	0
6	JH8SLS	0.0008	1,163	0
7	JM1NKT	0.0008	2,477	1
8	K1ZZ	0.0008	4,885	3
9	OR2A	0.0008	1,140	0
10	IZ4JMA	0.0008	1,129	0

2012--2021 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (all)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	HL1VAU	0.0002	4,324	0
2	NW0M	0.0002	3,532	0
3	SE6N	0.0004	5,304	1
4	WB4TDH	0.0004	5,218	1
5	AD1C	0.0004	4,953	1
6	K6WSC	0.0004	4,888	1
7	WW4XX	0.0004	2,005	0
8	JN3SAC	0.0005	6,571	2
9	DL4FN	0.0005	8,263	3
10	KM3T	0.0005	1,826	0

A good argument can be made that a better measure of copying ability is to consider only run QSOs:

2012--2021 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (run)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	R7MM	0.0008	1,223	0
2	F4FTA	0.0009	1,108	0
3	ES2MC	0.0012	1,682	1
4	CF7RR	0.0013	1,557	1
5	K0AP	0.0013	727	0
6	EE1A	0.0014	673	0
7	VA7RR	0.0015	5,494	7
8	K1ZZ	0.0015	1,367	1
9	YT9M	0.0017	1,211	1
10	DL8RDL	0.0017	1,206	1

2012--2021 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (run)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	W3OA	0.0005	1,799	0
2	LY3CY	0.0005	1,713	0
3	RW5CW	0.0006	1,647	0
4	SE6N	0.0006	1,486	0
5	WB4TDH	0.0007	2,800	1
6	VX7SZ	0.0007	1,294	0
7	WQ5L	0.0008	1,220	0
8	YU1RA	0.0008	2,558	1
9	KM3T	0.0008	1,186	0
10	UA3QAM	0.0009	1,089	0

Highest Probability

We can also look at the calls associated with the highest probability of busting calls in either the forward or the reverse direction:

2021 SSB -- Most Busts
Position	Call	QSOs	Busts	% Busts
1	LZ9W	10,561	197	1.9
2	HI3LT	5,081	173	3.4
3	CR6K	8,984	164	1.8
4	OT5A	7,469	160	2.1
5	YT5A	10,159	159	1.6
6	UA7K	6,289	149	2.4
7	RT6A	6,140	141	2.3
8	ED1R	7,892	125	1.6
9	A73A	9,221	120	1.3
10	K1TTT	4,693	118	2.5

2021 CW -- Most Busts
Position	Call	QSOs	Busts	% Busts
1	TK0C	14,766	237	1.6
2	PI4CC	7,777	213	2.7
3	UA7K	7,873	190	2.4
4	F6KOP	7,439	183	2.5
5	PT4A	4,073	181	4.4
6	3B8M	8,698	156	1.8
7	RW0A	11,039	148	1.3
8	PJ4K	10,577	142	1.3
9	RT6A	6,879	138	2.0
10	TO7A	5,934	135	2.3

2021 SSB -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥100 QSOs)
Position	Call	QSOs	Busts	% Busts
1	IS0AGY	116	25	21.6
2	OM3ZAH	107	17	15.9
3	WA3RGH	102	16	15.7
4	I4PZP	182	27	14.8
5	OH1TS	163	24	14.7
6	R8CAX	103	15	14.6
7	R9MBY	202	29	14.4
8	R3PIQ	125	17	13.6
9	BD7OYA	263	34	12.9
10	WB7EUJ	102	13	12.7

2021 CW -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥100 QSOs)
Position	Call	QSOs	Busts	% Busts
1	IS0ILP	107	25	23.4
2	DL7CO	117	26	22.2
3	DF6ON	107	22	20.6
4	EA3ERD	147	28	19.0
5	SP2EPV	116	22	19.0
6	K2HYD	111	20	18.0
7	UT5KL	151	27	17.9
8	CL3OR	245	42	17.1
9	VE3EKA	100	17	17.0
10	K9XR	165	28	17.0

2021 SSB -- Most Reverse Busts
Position	Call	QSOs	Reverse Busts	% Reverse Busts
1	CA3CLF	912	912	100.0
2	DF0HQ	9,555	310	3.2
3	EA8RM	6,712	199	3.0
4	YT5A	10,159	182	1.8
5	4X1DX	4,132	181	4.4
6	PX2A	6,492	161	2.5
7	Z60A	4,227	159	3.8
8	TM3R	4,702	158	3.4
9	EW5A	10,234	156	1.5
10	JA3YBK	3,915	137	3.5

2021 CW -- Most Reverse Busts
Position	Call	QSOs	Reverse Busts	% Reverse Busts
1	R2VM	1,426	1,426	100.0
2	ES9C	10,492	343	3.3
3	DF0HQ	9,565	268	2.8
4	UA4S	6,407	263	4.1
5	TK0C	14,766	250	1.7
6	OH3ZG	241	241	100.0
7	JF1NHD	2,801	240	8.6
8	RW0A	11,039	216	2.0
9	JS3CTQ	2,278	212	9.3
10	UA4M	8,992	206	2.3

2021 SSB -- Highest Percentage of Reverse Busts (≥100 QSOs)
Position	Call	QSOs	% Reverse Busts
1	CA3CLF	912	100.0
2	BH7PCT	395	20.0
3	UA3R	125	16.0
4	DW2AFO	309	14.6
5	OM7AHJ	134	14.2
6	HB9HGI	110	13.6
7	N3UA	542	13.5
8	KO4HMB	102	12.7
9	VK2K	252	12.7
10	CA1FCS	174	12.6

2021 CW -- Highest Percentage of Reverse Busts (≥100 QSOs)
Position	Call	QSOs	% Reverse Busts
1	OH3ZG	241	100.0
2	R2VM	1,426	100.0
3	OE120BKC	174	28.7
4	JS2GYN	114	19.3
5	BH4CAC	122	14.8
6	R7RBE	165	14.5
7	K3HW	526	13.7
8	V85T	239	13.0
9	HA7SQ	477	12.4
10	KB4MD	236	12.3

In tables of reverse busts, one sometimes finds what seems like an unreasonable number of reverse busts (as, in the last two tables, for CA3CLF, OH3ZG and R2VM). This is generally caused by a discrepancy between the call actually sent by the listed station and the one recorded as being sent in at least some QSOs in the station's log.

2012--2021 SSB -- Most Busts
Position	Call	QSOs	Busts	% Busts
1	LZ9W	90,841	1,620	1.8
2	CN3A	74,906	1,359	1.8
3	A73A	63,716	1,230	1.9
4	OT5A	62,915	1,216	1.9
5	PJ2T	69,092	1,182	1.7
6	V26B	54,741	946	1.7
7	II2S	43,883	844	1.9
8	ED1R	55,290	841	1.5
9	HG7T	60,338	817	1.4
10	RT6A	47,522	808	1.7

2012--2021 CW -- Most Busts
Position	Call	QSOs	Busts	% Busts
1	LZ9W	103,757	1,190	1.1
2	PJ2T	88,714	1,177	1.3
3	PI4CC	51,789	1,057	2.0
4	TK0C	60,962	904	1.5
5	RW0A	54,499	886	1.6
6	ZW8T	12,253	881	7.2
7	PV8ADI	6,412	874	13.6
8	JA3YBK	49,522	789	1.6
9	G3V	34,468	787	2.3
10	D4C	52,522	761	1.4

2012--2021 SSB -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥500 QSOs)
Position	Call	QSOs	Busts	% Busts
1	K2JMY	1,632	262	16.1
2	EA7JQT	572	71	12.4
3	OH1TS	725	82	11.3
4	EA1HTF	1,470	160	10.9
5	EA4GWL	931	91	9.8
6	LU4DJB	672	64	9.5
7	YB9KA	706	67	9.5
8	PU2TRX	803	76	9.5
9	UY3CC	1,536	143	9.3
10	E20WXA	688	64	9.3

2012--2021 CW -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥500 QSOs)
Position	Call	QSOs	Busts	% Busts
1	W2UDT	668	148	22.2
2	BD3MV	961	198	20.6
3	4Z5FW	527	108	20.5
4	DJ5UZ	723	136	18.8
5	WP3Y	570	93	16.3
6	LZ1BY	708	115	16.2
7	AE3D	1,016	161	15.8
8	DL7CO	810	127	15.7
9	IK0YUO	670	104	15.5
10	YO7LYM	1,697	254	15.0

2012--2021 SSB -- Most Reverse Busts
Position	Call	QSOs	Reverse Busts	% Reverse Busts
1	DF0HQ	84,060	2,426	2.9
2	JA3YBK	35,341	1,133	3.2
3	K3LR	67,184	1,068	1.6
4	TM3R	24,257	1,049	4.3
5	CA3CLF	982	915	93.2
6	IK2YCW	26,490	857	3.2
7	CN3A	74,906	811	1.1
8	W3LPL	49,498	799	1.6
9	HK1NA	40,363	788	2.0
10	CN2R	45,445	779	1.7

2012--2021 CW -- Most Reverse Busts
Position	Call	QSOs	Reverse Busts	% Reverse Busts
1	JS3CTQ	24,073	2,938	12.2
2	DF0HQ	80,064	2,694	3.4
3	ES9C	72,304	2,252	3.1
4	HG7T	67,691	1,444	2.1
5	R2VM	1,426	1,426	100.0
6	W2FU	52,558	1,412	2.7
7	RM9A	63,391	1,399	2.2
8	K3LR	70,734	1,364	1.9
9	DR1A	44,217	1,289	2.9
10	DR4A	52,236	1,236	2.4

2012--2021 SSB -- Highest Percentage of Reverse Busts (≥500 QSOs)
Position	Call	QSOs	% Reverse Busts
1	CA3CLF	982	93.2
2	CW90A	1,370	30.9
3	CE6VMO	593	21.2
4	BA8AG	752	16.4
5	OG60F	4,258	11.4
6	ZP6DYA	1,225	11.3
7	BH7PCT	846	10.9
8	LU9DDJ	862	10.4
9	BV55D	919	10.2
10	BG6SNJ	802	10.1

2012--2021 CW -- Highest Percentage of Reverse Busts (≥500 QSOs)
Position	Call	QSOs	% Reverse Busts
1	R2VM	1,426	100.0
2	G3RWF	1,459	64.8
3	YT65A	1,149	37.2
4	5K0A	1,853	32.1
5	PE75W	1,408	29.3
6	OG55W	3,265	28.6
7	TA1C/2	1,513	18.1
8	DP65HSC	516	16.9
9	5J1E	1,523	15.6
10	SB0A	1,102	15.5