Prior posts in this series:
Throughout this post, I apply the procedures developed in the second post above.
For the purpose of this post, only
verified QSOs are counted.
Lowest Probability
I begin with an ordered list of the stations with the lowest probabilities
of busting a call in 2022 CQ WW SSB.
2022 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (all)
|
Position |
Call |
weighted mean |
$Q_v$ |
$B$ |
1 |
OK1WCF |
0.0005 |
1,719 |
0 |
2 |
M3AWD |
0.0006 |
1,506 |
0 |
3 |
PY2KJ |
0.0008 |
1,213 |
0 |
4 |
N2BJ |
0.0010 |
964 |
0 |
5 |
PY5FO |
0.0010 |
926 |
0 |
6 |
G4P |
0.0010 |
909 |
0 |
7 |
I2WIJ |
0.0011 |
882 |
0 |
8 |
W1ARY |
0.0012 |
772 |
0 |
9 |
W6DVS |
0.0013 |
762 |
0 |
10 |
IK1PMR |
0.0013 |
741 |
0 |
And for 2022 CQ WW CW:
2022 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (all)
|
Position |
Call |
weighted mean |
$Q_v$ |
$B$ |
1 |
DL4FN |
0.0004 |
2,040 |
0 |
2 |
SN5J |
0.0005 |
1,722 |
0 |
3 |
DL6NDW |
0.0006 |
1,572 |
0 |
4 |
W3KB |
0.0007 |
1,342 |
0 |
5 |
EU8U |
0.0007 |
1,266 |
0 |
6 |
N3NR |
0.0009 |
1,087 |
0 |
7 |
K1ZZ |
0.0009 |
3,418 |
2 |
8 |
SP9XCN |
0.0009 |
2,155 |
1 |
9 |
K3PH |
0.0009 |
2,142 |
1 |
10 |
M2J |
0.0010 |
992 |
0 |
It is interesting to plot the aggregated probability
function for $p_{bust}$ weighted by the verified number of QSOs, $Q_v$,
for all stations:
In case it isn't clear, the location of the solid vertical lines represent the weighted means of the probability curves.
We can limit the analysis to calling stations (i.e., not the running station).
2022 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (no-run)
|
Position |
Call |
weighted mean |
$Q_v$ |
$B$ |
1 |
OK1WCF |
0.0006 |
1,436 |
0 |
2 |
M3AWD |
0.0008 |
1,234 |
0 |
3 |
9A2EU |
0.0010 |
955 |
0 |
4 |
N5RZ |
0.0010 |
954 |
0 |
5 |
N3FJP |
0.0010 |
918 |
0 |
6 |
G4P |
0.0011 |
876 |
0 |
7 |
N2YO |
0.0012 |
793 |
0 |
8 |
I2WIJ |
0.0012 |
791 |
0 |
9 |
W1ARY |
0.0013 |
765 |
0 |
10 |
W6DVS |
0.0013 |
762 |
0 |
2022 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (no-run)
|
Position |
Call |
weighted mean |
$Q_v$ |
$B$ |
1 |
DL4FN |
0.0006 |
1,634 |
0 |
2 |
SN5J |
0.0006 |
1,598 |
0 |
3 |
DK1KC |
0.0007 |
1,428 |
0 |
4 |
DJ5MO |
0.0008 |
1,226 |
0 |
5 |
DL6NDW |
0.0008 |
1,194 |
0 |
6 |
W3KB |
0.0008 |
1,164 |
0 |
7 |
IO1T |
0.0008 |
1,125 |
0 |
8 |
K3PH |
0.0009 |
1,082 |
0 |
9 |
N2RC |
0.0009 |
1,076 |
0 |
10 |
EA2ESB |
0.0009 |
1,053 |
0 |
And similarly for running stations.
2022 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (run)
|
Position |
Call |
weighted mean |
$Q_v$ |
$B$ |
1 |
PY2KJ |
0.0009 |
1,074 |
0 |
2 |
OH0V |
0.0011 |
884 |
0 |
3 |
VC3R |
0.0013 |
1,499 |
1 |
4 |
5Q2J |
0.0014 |
674 |
0 |
5 |
PY5FO |
0.0014 |
673 |
0 |
6 |
W1GD |
0.0017 |
571 |
0 |
7 |
Z68XX |
0.0018 |
546 |
0 |
8 |
VE3VN |
0.0019 |
1,050 |
1 |
9 |
NT6X |
0.0019 |
500 |
0 |
10 |
K1BX |
0.0020 |
488 |
0 |
2022 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (run)
|
Position |
Call |
weighted mean |
$Q_v$ |
$B$ |
1 |
N2GC |
0.0011 |
886 |
0 |
2 |
EU8U |
0.0011 |
880 |
0 |
3 |
K3WJV |
0.0012 |
802 |
0 |
4 |
K1ZZ |
0.0012 |
2,467 |
2 |
5 |
DL1SAN |
0.0012 |
774 |
0 |
6 |
K1DG |
0.0015 |
2,651 |
3 |
7 |
HG0Y |
0.0015 |
1,979 |
2 |
8 |
K5ZD |
0.0017 |
3,581 |
5 |
9 |
SP9XCN |
0.0018 |
1,118 |
1 |
10 |
DM2M |
0.0019 |
519 |
0 |
We can also look at the changes over the period from 2005 to 2022.
First for all QSOs:
Then for calling stations:
And for running stations:
I
think it's also interesting to see who appears to have the lowest
probability of busting a call over an extended period. So, for the last
ten years:
2013--2022 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (all)
|
Position |
Call |
weighted mean |
$Q_v$ |
$B$ |
1 |
IK1PMR |
0.0005 |
1,669 |
0 |
2 |
IK4OMU |
0.0006 |
1,501 |
0 |
3 |
RU3SD |
0.0007 |
1,318 |
0 |
4 |
ES2MC |
0.0007 |
2,780 |
1 |
5 |
K4RUM |
0.0007 |
1,267 |
0 |
6 |
K0PC |
0.0008 |
1,217 |
0 |
7 |
NW0M |
0.0008 |
3,649 |
2 |
8 |
LY3CY |
0.0008 |
4,832 |
3 |
9 |
W4EE |
0.0008 |
1,130 |
0 |
10 |
IZ4JMA |
0.0008 |
1,129 |
0 |
2013--2022 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (all)
|
Position |
Call |
weighted mean |
$Q_v$ |
$B$ |
1 |
NW0M |
0.0002 |
3,926 |
0 |
2 |
HL1VAU |
0.0002 |
3,893 |
0 |
3 |
WB4TDH |
0.0004 |
5,406 |
1 |
4 |
K6WSC |
0.0004 |
4,955 |
1 |
5 |
SE6N |
0.0004 |
4,735 |
1 |
6 |
AD1C |
0.0004 |
4,731 |
1 |
7 |
DL4FN |
0.0004 |
9,137 |
3 |
8 |
KM3T |
0.0005 |
1,966 |
0 |
9 |
DP4X |
0.0005 |
4,132 |
1 |
10 |
JA1QOW |
0.0005 |
3,915 |
1 |
A good argument can be made that a better measure of copying ability is to consider only run QSOs:
2013--2022 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (run)
|
Position |
Call |
weighted mean |
$Q_v$ |
$B$ |
1 |
F4FTA |
0.0009 |
1,108 |
0 |
2 |
N1EU |
0.0009 |
1,013 |
0 |
3 |
R7MM |
0.0011 |
869 |
0 |
4 |
ES2MC |
0.0012 |
1,682 |
1 |
5 |
CF7RR |
0.0013 |
1,557 |
1 |
6 |
DL8RDL |
0.0013 |
734 |
0 |
7 |
EE1A |
0.0014 |
673 |
0 |
8 |
K0AP |
0.0014 |
665 |
0 |
9 |
VA7RR |
0.0015 |
5,494 |
7 |
10 |
DL7URH |
0.0016 |
1,262 |
1 |
2013--2022 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (run)
|
Position |
Call |
weighted mean |
$Q_v$ |
$B$ |
1 |
LY3CY |
0.0005 |
1,717 |
0 |
2 |
RW5CW |
0.0006 |
1,664 |
0 |
3 |
W3OA |
0.0006 |
1,573 |
0 |
4 |
WQ5L |
0.0006 |
1,520 |
0 |
5 |
WB4TDH |
0.0007 |
3,016 |
1 |
6 |
SE6N |
0.0007 |
1,369 |
0 |
7 |
YU1RA |
0.0007 |
2,787 |
1 |
8 |
VX7SZ |
0.0007 |
1,294 |
0 |
9 |
KM3T |
0.0008 |
1,193 |
0 |
10 |
OM7AT |
0.0009 |
1,102 |
0 |
Highest Probability
We can also look at the calls associated with the highest probability of
busting calls in either the forward or the reverse direction:
2022 SSB -- Most Busts |
Position |
Call |
QSOs |
Busts |
% Busts |
1 |
CN3A |
13,659 |
233 |
1.7 |
2 |
FM5KC |
7,324 |
200 |
2.7 |
3 |
OT5A |
7,125 |
198 |
2.8 |
4 |
K1LZ |
7,577 |
174 |
2.3 |
5 |
PJ2T |
10,739 |
163 |
1.5 |
6 |
CQ8M |
4,870 |
150 |
3.1 |
7 |
CR6K |
9,443 |
149 |
1.6 |
8 |
ZF1A |
9,973 |
143 |
1.4 |
9 |
F6KOP |
6,423 |
140 |
2.2 |
10 |
EA8RM |
11,501 |
139 |
1.2 |
2022 CW -- Most Busts |
Position |
Call |
QSOs |
Busts |
% Busts |
1 |
F6KOP |
7,534 |
219 |
2.9 |
2 |
EA8RM |
7,981 |
194 |
2.4 |
3 |
CN3A |
13,863 |
189 |
1.4 |
4 |
TK0C |
12,254 |
188 |
1.5 |
5 |
JA3YBK |
5,019 |
145 |
2.9 |
6 |
A71BX |
3,542 |
144 |
4.1 |
7 |
OT7T |
9,500 |
143 |
1.5 |
8 |
IB1D |
2,719 |
141 |
5.2 |
9 |
LZ9W |
11,215 |
138 |
1.2 |
10 |
PJ2T |
11,682 |
134 |
1.1 |
2022 SSB -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥100 QSOs) |
Position |
Call |
QSOs |
Busts |
% Busts |
1 |
IS0AGY |
108 |
20 |
18.5 |
2 |
YD1CMZ |
132 |
20 |
15.2 |
3 |
VU2OO |
165 |
24 |
14.5 |
4 |
WB7EUJ |
161 |
23 |
14.3 |
5 |
YB1KEL |
162 |
23 |
14.2 |
6 |
VR2UNG |
120 |
17 |
14.2 |
7 |
YB2SPP |
102 |
14 |
13.7 |
8 |
YF1ANL |
102 |
14 |
13.7 |
9 |
W5AAG |
126 |
16 |
12.7 |
10 |
UA3PI |
183 |
21 |
11.5 |
2022 CW -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥100 QSOs) |
Position |
Call |
QSOs |
Busts |
% Busts |
1 |
AI2U |
141 |
34 |
24.1 |
2 |
OK1MKD |
110 |
25 |
22.7 |
3 |
CM3OR |
193 |
41 |
21.2 |
4 |
DL7CO |
181 |
37 |
20.4 |
5 |
JJ5NFT |
191 |
39 |
20.4 |
6 |
K9HXO |
215 |
42 |
19.5 |
7 |
CE6VMO |
295 |
53 |
18.0 |
8 |
JK1CNL |
131 |
22 |
16.8 |
9 |
DL4DRG |
146 |
24 |
16.4 |
10 |
VU2VTI |
117 |
19 |
16.2 |
2022 SSB -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥100 QSOs) |
Position |
Call |
QSOs |
Busts |
% Busts |
1 |
IS0AGY |
108 |
20 |
18.5 |
2 |
YD1CMZ |
132 |
20 |
15.2 |
3 |
VU2OO |
165 |
24 |
14.5 |
4 |
WB7EUJ |
161 |
23 |
14.3 |
5 |
YB1KEL |
162 |
23 |
14.2 |
6 |
VR2UNG |
120 |
17 |
14.2 |
7 |
YB2SPP |
102 |
14 |
13.7 |
8 |
YF1ANL |
102 |
14 |
13.7 |
9 |
W5AAG |
126 |
16 |
12.7 |
10 |
UA3PI |
183 |
21 |
11.5 |
2022 CW -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥100 QSOs) |
Position |
Call |
QSOs |
Busts |
% Busts |
1 |
AI2U |
141 |
34 |
24.1 |
2 |
OK1MKD |
110 |
25 |
22.7 |
3 |
CM3OR |
193 |
41 |
21.2 |
4 |
DL7CO |
181 |
37 |
20.4 |
5 |
JJ5NFT |
191 |
39 |
20.4 |
6 |
K9HXO |
215 |
42 |
19.5 |
7 |
CE6VMO |
295 |
53 |
18.0 |
8 |
JK1CNL |
131 |
22 |
16.8 |
9 |
DL4DRG |
146 |
24 |
16.4 |
10 |
VU2VTI |
117 |
19 |
16.2 |
2022 SSB -- Highest Percentage of Reverse Busts (≥100 QSOs) |
Position |
Call |
QSOs |
% Reverse Busts |
1 |
NP4WW |
147 |
100.0 |
2 |
PT4Z |
1,011 |
20.3 |
3 |
TA7YLY |
209 |
18.2 |
4 |
9M4BCN |
170 |
17.1 |
5 |
BY4DX |
918 |
14.5 |
6 |
OZ0JD |
459 |
13.1 |
7 |
BD3OD |
114 |
12.3 |
8 |
CT2KNA |
1,122 |
10.8 |
9 |
YC0BOY |
115 |
10.4 |
10 |
BG6HOK |
117 |
10.3 |
2022 CW -- Highest Percentage of Reverse Busts (≥100 QSOs) |
Position |
Call |
QSOs |
% Reverse Busts |
1 |
F5PP |
216 |
19.4 |
2 |
N3HEE |
340 |
13.5 |
3 |
HB75SG |
119 |
13.4 |
4 |
EB7A |
6,198 |
13.1 |
5 |
SP2HHX |
505 |
12.7 |
6 |
IU2OZV |
356 |
11.8 |
7 |
W0GJ |
452 |
11.7 |
8 |
K3HW |
505 |
11.3 |
9 |
SV0SYH |
170 |
11.2 |
10 |
BG3HMQ |
117 |
10.3 |
In tables of reverse busts, one sometimes
finds what seems like an unreasonable number of reverse busts (as is the case, for example, for NP4WW in the 2022 SSB table above). This is generally caused by a discrepancy
between the call actually sent by the listed station and the one
recorded as being sent in at least some QSOs in the station's log.
2013--2022 SSB -- Most Busts |
Position |
Call |
QSOs |
Busts |
% Busts |
1 |
LZ9W |
91,388 |
1,633 |
1.8 |
2 |
CN3A |
79,598 |
1,437 |
1.8 |
3 |
OT5A |
61,077 |
1,275 |
2.1 |
4 |
PJ2T |
71,347 |
1,261 |
1.8 |
5 |
A73A |
55,906 |
1,080 |
1.9 |
6 |
V26B |
54,777 |
929 |
1.7 |
7 |
YT5A |
61,330 |
895 |
1.5 |
8 |
II2S |
48,429 |
870 |
1.8 |
9 |
ED1R |
56,728 |
837 |
1.5 |
10 |
CR6K |
50,573 |
813 |
1.6 |
2013--2022 CW -- Most Busts |
Position |
Call |
QSOs |
Busts |
% Busts |
1 |
LZ9W |
104,970 |
1,176 |
1.1 |
2 |
PJ2T |
91,720 |
1,155 |
1.3 |
3 |
TK0C |
73,216 |
1,092 |
1.5 |
4 |
PI4CC |
48,781 |
970 |
2.0 |
5 |
ZW8T |
12,253 |
881 |
7.2 |
6 |
JA3YBK |
48,387 |
862 |
1.8 |
7 |
RW0A |
49,639 |
830 |
1.7 |
8 |
YT5A |
80,598 |
772 |
1.0 |
9 |
HG7T |
68,110 |
771 |
1.1 |
10 |
VY2TT |
46,404 |
746 |
1.6 |
2013--2022 SSB -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥500 QSOs) |
Position |
Call |
QSOs |
Busts |
% Busts |
1 |
K2JMY |
1,632 |
262 |
16.1 |
2 |
EA7JQT |
572 |
71 |
12.4 |
3 |
JR1MQT |
775 |
89 |
11.5 |
4 |
OH1TS |
660 |
75 |
11.4 |
5 |
EA1HTF |
1,762 |
177 |
10.0 |
6 |
PU2TRX |
655 |
65 |
9.9 |
7 |
EA4GWL |
931 |
91 |
9.8 |
8 |
IS0ILP |
553 |
53 |
9.6 |
9 |
LU4DJB |
672 |
64 |
9.5 |
10 |
YB9KA |
706 |
67 |
9.5 |
2013--2022 CW -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥500 QSOs) |
Position |
Call |
QSOs |
Busts |
% Busts |
1 |
W2UDT |
668 |
148 |
22.2 |
2 |
BD3MV |
896 |
189 |
21.1 |
3 |
4Z5FW |
527 |
108 |
20.5 |
4 |
DJ5UZ |
723 |
136 |
18.8 |
5 |
DL7CO |
991 |
164 |
16.5 |
6 |
WP3Y |
570 |
93 |
16.3 |
7 |
CE6VMO |
695 |
111 |
16.0 |
8 |
AE3D |
1,016 |
161 |
15.8 |
9 |
LZ1BY |
789 |
124 |
15.7 |
10 |
IK0YUO |
670 |
104 |
15.5 |
2013--2022 SSB -- Most Reverse Busts |
Position |
Call |
QSOs |
Reverse Busts |
% Reverse Busts |
1 |
DF0HQ |
83,594 |
2,489 |
3.0 |
2 |
JA3YBK |
34,097 |
1,177 |
3.5 |
3 |
CN3A |
79,598 |
1,084 |
1.4 |
4 |
TM3R |
24,257 |
1,049 |
4.3 |
5 |
K3LR |
67,007 |
1,019 |
1.5 |
6 |
CA3CLF |
982 |
915 |
93.2 |
7 |
IK2YCW |
25,411 |
830 |
3.3 |
8 |
GM2T |
34,451 |
781 |
2.3 |
9 |
OT5A |
61,077 |
775 |
1.3 |
10 |
YT5A |
61,330 |
765 |
1.2 |
2013--2022 CW -- Most Reverse Busts |
Position |
Call |
QSOs |
Reverse Busts |
% Reverse Busts |
1 |
JS3CTQ |
22,376 |
2,689 |
12.0 |
2 |
DF0HQ |
80,316 |
2,602 |
3.2 |
3 |
ES9C |
72,304 |
2,252 |
3.1 |
4 |
HG7T |
68,110 |
1,572 |
2.3 |
5 |
R2VM |
1,426 |
1,426 |
100.0 |
6 |
W2FU |
53,926 |
1,421 |
2.6 |
7 |
RM9A |
63,391 |
1,399 |
2.2 |
8 |
K3LR |
70,698 |
1,354 |
1.9 |
9 |
YT5A |
80,598 |
1,325 |
1.6 |
10 |
DR4A |
52,681 |
1,273 |
2.4 |
2013--2022 SSB -- Highest Percentage of Reverse Busts (≥500 QSOs) |
Position |
Call |
QSOs |
% Reverse Busts |
1 |
CA3CLF |
982 |
93.2 |
2 |
PT4Z |
1,011 |
20.3 |
3 |
ZP6DYA |
963 |
12.1 |
4 |
OG60F |
4,258 |
11.4 |
5 |
BY4DX |
1,269 |
11.3 |
6 |
BH7PCT |
846 |
10.9 |
7 |
LU9DDJ |
862 |
10.4 |
8 |
BV55D |
919 |
10.2 |
9 |
JG3SVP |
1,270 |
10.1 |
10 |
DX3EVM |
527 |
10.1 |
2013--2022 CW -- Highest Percentage of Reverse Busts (≥500 QSOs) |
Position |
Call |
QSOs |
% Reverse Busts |
1 |
R2VM |
1,426 |
100.0 |
2 |
YT65A |
1,149 |
37.2 |
3 |
G3RWF |
2,682 |
35.5 |
4 |
5K0A |
1,853 |
32.1 |
5 |
PE75W |
1,408 |
29.3 |
6 |
OG55W |
3,265 |
28.6 |
7 |
TA1C/2 |
1,513 |
18.1 |
8 |
DP65HSC |
516 |
16.9 |
9 |
5J1E |
1,523 |
15.6 |
10 |
SB0A |
1,102 |
15.5 |