Busting Calls: CQ WW 2022

 Prior posts in this series:

• Initial analysis
• Further analysis
• CQ WW SSB 2005 to 2016 
• CQ WW CW 2005 to 2016
• Non-Run QSOs, CQ WW 2005 to 2016
• Run QSOs, CQ WW 2005 to 2016
• 2017, 2018
• 2019
• 2020
• 2021
  

Throughout this post, I apply the procedures developed in the second post above.

For the purpose of this post, only verified QSOs are counted.

Lowest Probability

I begin with an ordered list of the stations with the lowest probabilities of busting a call in 2022 CQ WW SSB.

2022 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (all)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	OK1WCF	0.0005	1,719	0
2	M3AWD	0.0006	1,506	0
3	PY2KJ	0.0008	1,213	0
4	N2BJ	0.0010	964	0
5	PY5FO	0.0010	926	0
6	G4P	0.0010	909	0
7	I2WIJ	0.0011	882	0
8	W1ARY	0.0012	772	0
9	W6DVS	0.0013	762	0
10	IK1PMR	0.0013	741	0

And for 2022 CQ WW CW:

2022 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (all)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	DL4FN	0.0004	2,040	0
2	SN5J	0.0005	1,722	0
3	DL6NDW	0.0006	1,572	0
4	W3KB	0.0007	1,342	0
5	EU8U	0.0007	1,266	0
6	N3NR	0.0009	1,087	0
7	K1ZZ	0.0009	3,418	2
8	SP9XCN	0.0009	2,155	1
9	K3PH	0.0009	2,142	1
10	M2J	0.0010	992	0

It is interesting to plot the aggregated probability function for $p_{bust}$ weighted by the verified number of QSOs, $Q_v$, for all stations:

In case it isn't clear, the location of the solid vertical lines represent the weighted means of the probability curves.

We can limit the analysis to calling stations (i.e., not the running station).

2022 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (no-run)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	OK1WCF	0.0006	1,436	0
2	M3AWD	0.0008	1,234	0
3	9A2EU	0.0010	955	0
4	N5RZ	0.0010	954	0
5	N3FJP	0.0010	918	0
6	G4P	0.0011	876	0
7	N2YO	0.0012	793	0
8	I2WIJ	0.0012	791	0
9	W1ARY	0.0013	765	0
10	W6DVS	0.0013	762	0

2022 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (no-run)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	DL4FN	0.0006	1,634	0
2	SN5J	0.0006	1,598	0
3	DK1KC	0.0007	1,428	0
4	DJ5MO	0.0008	1,226	0
5	DL6NDW	0.0008	1,194	0
6	W3KB	0.0008	1,164	0
7	IO1T	0.0008	1,125	0
8	K3PH	0.0009	1,082	0
9	N2RC	0.0009	1,076	0
10	EA2ESB	0.0009	1,053	0

And similarly for running stations.

2022 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (run)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	PY2KJ	0.0009	1,074	0
2	OH0V	0.0011	884	0
3	VC3R	0.0013	1,499	1
4	5Q2J	0.0014	674	0
5	PY5FO	0.0014	673	0
6	W1GD	0.0017	571	0
7	Z68XX	0.0018	546	0
8	VE3VN	0.0019	1,050	1
9	NT6X	0.0019	500	0
10	K1BX	0.0020	488	0

2022 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (run)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	N2GC	0.0011	886	0
2	EU8U	0.0011	880	0
3	K3WJV	0.0012	802	0
4	K1ZZ	0.0012	2,467	2
5	DL1SAN	0.0012	774	0
6	K1DG	0.0015	2,651	3
7	HG0Y	0.0015	1,979	2
8	K5ZD	0.0017	3,581	5
9	SP9XCN	0.0018	1,118	1
10	DM2M	0.0019	519	0

We can also look at the changes over the period from 2005 to 2022.

First for all QSOs:

Then for calling stations:

And for running stations:

I think it's also interesting to see who appears to have the lowest probability of busting a call over an extended period. So, for the last ten years:

2013--2022 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (all)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	IK1PMR	0.0005	1,669	0
2	IK4OMU	0.0006	1,501	0
3	RU3SD	0.0007	1,318	0
4	ES2MC	0.0007	2,780	1
5	K4RUM	0.0007	1,267	0
6	K0PC	0.0008	1,217	0
7	NW0M	0.0008	3,649	2
8	LY3CY	0.0008	4,832	3
9	W4EE	0.0008	1,130	0
10	IZ4JMA	0.0008	1,129	0

2013--2022 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (all)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	NW0M	0.0002	3,926	0
2	HL1VAU	0.0002	3,893	0
3	WB4TDH	0.0004	5,406	1
4	K6WSC	0.0004	4,955	1
5	SE6N	0.0004	4,735	1
6	AD1C	0.0004	4,731	1
7	DL4FN	0.0004	9,137	3
8	KM3T	0.0005	1,966	0
9	DP4X	0.0005	4,132	1
10	JA1QOW	0.0005	3,915	1

A good argument can be made that a better measure of copying ability is to consider only run QSOs:

2013--2022 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (run)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	F4FTA	0.0009	1,108	0
2	N1EU	0.0009	1,013	0
3	R7MM	0.0011	869	0
4	ES2MC	0.0012	1,682	1
5	CF7RR	0.0013	1,557	1
6	DL8RDL	0.0013	734	0
7	EE1A	0.0014	673	0
8	K0AP	0.0014	665	0
9	VA7RR	0.0015	5,494	7
10	DL7URH	0.0016	1,262	1

2013--2022 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (run)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	LY3CY	0.0005	1,717	0
2	RW5CW	0.0006	1,664	0
3	W3OA	0.0006	1,573	0
4	WQ5L	0.0006	1,520	0
5	WB4TDH	0.0007	3,016	1
6	SE6N	0.0007	1,369	0
7	YU1RA	0.0007	2,787	1
8	VX7SZ	0.0007	1,294	0
9	KM3T	0.0008	1,193	0
10	OM7AT	0.0009	1,102	0

Highest Probability

We can also look at the calls associated with the highest probability of busting calls in either the forward or the reverse direction:

2022 SSB -- Most Busts
Position	Call	QSOs	Busts	% Busts
1	CN3A	13,659	233	1.7
2	FM5KC	7,324	200	2.7
3	OT5A	7,125	198	2.8
4	K1LZ	7,577	174	2.3
5	PJ2T	10,739	163	1.5
6	CQ8M	4,870	150	3.1
7	CR6K	9,443	149	1.6
8	ZF1A	9,973	143	1.4
9	F6KOP	6,423	140	2.2
10	EA8RM	11,501	139	1.2

2022 CW -- Most Busts
Position	Call	QSOs	Busts	% Busts
1	F6KOP	7,534	219	2.9
2	EA8RM	7,981	194	2.4
3	CN3A	13,863	189	1.4
4	TK0C	12,254	188	1.5
5	JA3YBK	5,019	145	2.9
6	A71BX	3,542	144	4.1
7	OT7T	9,500	143	1.5
8	IB1D	2,719	141	5.2
9	LZ9W	11,215	138	1.2
10	PJ2T	11,682	134	1.1

2022 SSB -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥100 QSOs)
Position	Call	QSOs	Busts	% Busts
1	IS0AGY	108	20	18.5
2	YD1CMZ	132	20	15.2
3	VU2OO	165	24	14.5
4	WB7EUJ	161	23	14.3
5	YB1KEL	162	23	14.2
6	VR2UNG	120	17	14.2
7	YB2SPP	102	14	13.7
8	YF1ANL	102	14	13.7
9	W5AAG	126	16	12.7
10	UA3PI	183	21	11.5

2022 CW -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥100 QSOs)
Position	Call	QSOs	Busts	% Busts
1	AI2U	141	34	24.1
2	OK1MKD	110	25	22.7
3	CM3OR	193	41	21.2
4	DL7CO	181	37	20.4
5	JJ5NFT	191	39	20.4
6	K9HXO	215	42	19.5
7	CE6VMO	295	53	18.0
8	JK1CNL	131	22	16.8
9	DL4DRG	146	24	16.4
10	VU2VTI	117	19	16.2

2022 SSB -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥100 QSOs)
Position	Call	QSOs	Busts	% Busts
1	IS0AGY	108	20	18.5
2	YD1CMZ	132	20	15.2
3	VU2OO	165	24	14.5
4	WB7EUJ	161	23	14.3
5	YB1KEL	162	23	14.2
6	VR2UNG	120	17	14.2
7	YB2SPP	102	14	13.7
8	YF1ANL	102	14	13.7
9	W5AAG	126	16	12.7
10	UA3PI	183	21	11.5

2022 CW -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥100 QSOs)
Position	Call	QSOs	Busts	% Busts
1	AI2U	141	34	24.1
2	OK1MKD	110	25	22.7
3	CM3OR	193	41	21.2
4	DL7CO	181	37	20.4
5	JJ5NFT	191	39	20.4
6	K9HXO	215	42	19.5
7	CE6VMO	295	53	18.0
8	JK1CNL	131	22	16.8
9	DL4DRG	146	24	16.4
10	VU2VTI	117	19	16.2

2022 SSB -- Highest Percentage of Reverse Busts (≥100 QSOs)
Position	Call	QSOs	% Reverse Busts
1	NP4WW	147	100.0
2	PT4Z	1,011	20.3
3	TA7YLY	209	18.2
4	9M4BCN	170	17.1
5	BY4DX	918	14.5
6	OZ0JD	459	13.1
7	BD3OD	114	12.3
8	CT2KNA	1,122	10.8
9	YC0BOY	115	10.4
10	BG6HOK	117	10.3

2022 CW -- Highest Percentage of Reverse Busts (≥100 QSOs)
Position	Call	QSOs	% Reverse Busts
1	F5PP	216	19.4
2	N3HEE	340	13.5
3	HB75SG	119	13.4
4	EB7A	6,198	13.1
5	SP2HHX	505	12.7
6	IU2OZV	356	11.8
7	W0GJ	452	11.7
8	K3HW	505	11.3
9	SV0SYH	170	11.2
10	BG3HMQ	117	10.3

In tables of reverse busts, one sometimes finds what seems like an unreasonable number of reverse busts (as is the case, for example, for NP4WW in the 2022 SSB table above). This is generally caused by a discrepancy between the call actually sent by the listed station and the one recorded as being sent in at least some QSOs in the station's log.

2013--2022 SSB -- Most Busts
Position	Call	QSOs	Busts	% Busts
1	LZ9W	91,388	1,633	1.8
2	CN3A	79,598	1,437	1.8
3	OT5A	61,077	1,275	2.1
4	PJ2T	71,347	1,261	1.8
5	A73A	55,906	1,080	1.9
6	V26B	54,777	929	1.7
7	YT5A	61,330	895	1.5
8	II2S	48,429	870	1.8
9	ED1R	56,728	837	1.5
10	CR6K	50,573	813	1.6

2013--2022 CW -- Most Busts
Position	Call	QSOs	Busts	% Busts
1	LZ9W	104,970	1,176	1.1
2	PJ2T	91,720	1,155	1.3
3	TK0C	73,216	1,092	1.5
4	PI4CC	48,781	970	2.0
5	ZW8T	12,253	881	7.2
6	JA3YBK	48,387	862	1.8
7	RW0A	49,639	830	1.7
8	YT5A	80,598	772	1.0
9	HG7T	68,110	771	1.1
10	VY2TT	46,404	746	1.6

2013--2022 SSB -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥500 QSOs)
Position	Call	QSOs	Busts	% Busts
1	K2JMY	1,632	262	16.1
2	EA7JQT	572	71	12.4
3	JR1MQT	775	89	11.5
4	OH1TS	660	75	11.4
5	EA1HTF	1,762	177	10.0
6	PU2TRX	655	65	9.9
7	EA4GWL	931	91	9.8
8	IS0ILP	553	53	9.6
9	LU4DJB	672	64	9.5
10	YB9KA	706	67	9.5

2013--2022 CW -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥500 QSOs)
Position	Call	QSOs	Busts	% Busts
1	W2UDT	668	148	22.2
2	BD3MV	896	189	21.1
3	4Z5FW	527	108	20.5
4	DJ5UZ	723	136	18.8
5	DL7CO	991	164	16.5
6	WP3Y	570	93	16.3
7	CE6VMO	695	111	16.0
8	AE3D	1,016	161	15.8
9	LZ1BY	789	124	15.7
10	IK0YUO	670	104	15.5

2013--2022 SSB -- Most Reverse Busts
Position	Call	QSOs	Reverse Busts	% Reverse Busts
1	DF0HQ	83,594	2,489	3.0
2	JA3YBK	34,097	1,177	3.5
3	CN3A	79,598	1,084	1.4
4	TM3R	24,257	1,049	4.3
5	K3LR	67,007	1,019	1.5
6	CA3CLF	982	915	93.2
7	IK2YCW	25,411	830	3.3
8	GM2T	34,451	781	2.3
9	OT5A	61,077	775	1.3
10	YT5A	61,330	765	1.2

2013--2022 CW -- Most Reverse Busts
Position	Call	QSOs	Reverse Busts	% Reverse Busts
1	JS3CTQ	22,376	2,689	12.0
2	DF0HQ	80,316	2,602	3.2
3	ES9C	72,304	2,252	3.1
4	HG7T	68,110	1,572	2.3
5	R2VM	1,426	1,426	100.0
6	W2FU	53,926	1,421	2.6
7	RM9A	63,391	1,399	2.2
8	K3LR	70,698	1,354	1.9
9	YT5A	80,598	1,325	1.6
10	DR4A	52,681	1,273	2.4

2013--2022 SSB -- Highest Percentage of Reverse Busts (≥500 QSOs)
Position	Call	QSOs	% Reverse Busts
1	CA3CLF	982	93.2
2	PT4Z	1,011	20.3
3	ZP6DYA	963	12.1
4	OG60F	4,258	11.4
5	BY4DX	1,269	11.3
6	BH7PCT	846	10.9
7	LU9DDJ	862	10.4
8	BV55D	919	10.2
9	JG3SVP	1,270	10.1
10	DX3EVM	527	10.1

2013--2022 CW -- Highest Percentage of Reverse Busts (≥500 QSOs)
Position	Call	QSOs	% Reverse Busts
1	R2VM	1,426	100.0
2	YT65A	1,149	37.2
3	G3RWF	2,682	35.5
4	5K0A	1,853	32.1
5	PE75W	1,408	29.3
6	OG55W	3,265	28.6
7	TA1C/2	1,513	18.1
8	DP65HSC	516	16.9
9	5J1E	1,523	15.6
10	SB0A	1,102	15.5