## 2023-04-27

### Busting Calls: CQ WW 2022

Prior posts in this series:

Throughout this post, I apply the procedures developed in the second post above.

For the purpose of this post, only verified QSOs are counted.

### Lowest Probability

I begin with an ordered list of the stations with the lowest probabilities of busting a call in 2022 CQ WW SSB.

2022 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (all)
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 OK1WCF 0.0005 1,719 0
2 M3AWD 0.0006 1,506 0
3 PY2KJ 0.0008 1,213 0
4 N2BJ 0.0010 964 0
5 PY5FO 0.0010 926 0
6 G4P 0.0010 909 0
7 I2WIJ 0.0011 882 0
8 W1ARY 0.0012 772 0
9 W6DVS 0.0013 762 0
10 IK1PMR 0.0013 741 0

And for 2022 CQ WW CW:

2022 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (all)
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 DL4FN 0.0004 2,040 0
2 SN5J 0.0005 1,722 0
3 DL6NDW 0.0006 1,572 0
4 W3KB 0.0007 1,342 0
5 EU8U 0.0007 1,266 0
6 N3NR 0.0009 1,087 0
7 K1ZZ 0.0009 3,418 2
8 SP9XCN 0.0009 2,155 1
9 K3PH 0.0009 2,142 1
10 M2J 0.0010 992 0

It is interesting to plot the aggregated probability function for $p_{bust}$ weighted by the verified number of QSOs, $Q_v$, for all stations:

In case it isn't clear, the location of the solid vertical lines represent the weighted means of the probability curves.

We can limit the analysis to calling stations (i.e., not the running station).

2022 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (no-run)
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 OK1WCF 0.0006 1,436 0
2 M3AWD 0.0008 1,234 0
3 9A2EU 0.0010 955 0
4 N5RZ 0.0010 954 0
5 N3FJP 0.0010 918 0
6 G4P 0.0011 876 0
7 N2YO 0.0012 793 0
8 I2WIJ 0.0012 791 0
9 W1ARY 0.0013 765 0
10 W6DVS 0.0013 762 0

2022 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (no-run)
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 DL4FN 0.0006 1,634 0
2 SN5J 0.0006 1,598 0
3 DK1KC 0.0007 1,428 0
4 DJ5MO 0.0008 1,226 0
5 DL6NDW 0.0008 1,194 0
6 W3KB 0.0008 1,164 0
7 IO1T 0.0008 1,125 0
8 K3PH 0.0009 1,082 0
9 N2RC 0.0009 1,076 0
10 EA2ESB 0.0009 1,053 0

And similarly for running stations.

2022 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (run)
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 PY2KJ 0.0009 1,074 0
2 OH0V 0.0011 884 0
3 VC3R 0.0013 1,499 1
4 5Q2J 0.0014 674 0
5 PY5FO 0.0014 673 0
6 W1GD 0.0017 571 0
7 Z68XX 0.0018 546 0
8 VE3VN 0.0019 1,050 1
9 NT6X 0.0019 500 0
10 K1BX 0.0020 488 0

2022 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (run)
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 N2GC 0.0011 886 0
2 EU8U 0.0011 880 0
3 K3WJV 0.0012 802 0
4 K1ZZ 0.0012 2,467 2
5 DL1SAN 0.0012 774 0
6 K1DG 0.0015 2,651 3
7 HG0Y 0.0015 1,979 2
8 K5ZD 0.0017 3,581 5
9 SP9XCN 0.0018 1,118 1
10 DM2M 0.0019 519 0

We can also look at the changes over the period from 2005 to 2022.

First for all QSOs:

Then for calling stations:

And for running stations:

I think it's also interesting to see who appears to have the lowest probability of busting a call over an extended period. So, for the last ten years:

2013--2022 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (all)
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 IK1PMR 0.0005 1,669 0
2 IK4OMU 0.0006 1,501 0
3 RU3SD 0.0007 1,318 0
4 ES2MC 0.0007 2,780 1
5 K4RUM 0.0007 1,267 0
6 K0PC 0.0008 1,217 0
7 NW0M 0.0008 3,649 2
8 LY3CY 0.0008 4,832 3
9 W4EE 0.0008 1,130 0
10 IZ4JMA 0.0008 1,129 0

2013--2022 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (all)
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 NW0M 0.0002 3,926 0
2 HL1VAU 0.0002 3,893 0
3 WB4TDH 0.0004 5,406 1
4 K6WSC 0.0004 4,955 1
5 SE6N 0.0004 4,735 1
7 DL4FN 0.0004 9,137 3
8 KM3T 0.0005 1,966 0
9 DP4X 0.0005 4,132 1
10 JA1QOW 0.0005 3,915 1

A good argument can be made that a better measure of copying ability is to consider only run QSOs:

2013--2022 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (run)
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 F4FTA 0.0009 1,108 0
2 N1EU 0.0009 1,013 0
3 R7MM 0.0011 869 0
4 ES2MC 0.0012 1,682 1
5 CF7RR 0.0013 1,557 1
6 DL8RDL 0.0013 734 0
7 EE1A 0.0014 673 0
8 K0AP 0.0014 665 0
9 VA7RR 0.0015 5,494 7
10 DL7URH 0.0016 1,262 1

2013--2022 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (run)
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 LY3CY 0.0005 1,717 0
2 RW5CW 0.0006 1,664 0
3 W3OA 0.0006 1,573 0
4 WQ5L 0.0006 1,520 0
5 WB4TDH 0.0007 3,016 1
6 SE6N 0.0007 1,369 0
7 YU1RA 0.0007 2,787 1
8 VX7SZ 0.0007 1,294 0
9 KM3T 0.0008 1,193 0
10 OM7AT 0.0009 1,102 0

#### Highest Probability

We can also look at the calls associated with the highest probability of busting calls in either the forward or the reverse direction:

2022 SSB -- Most Busts
Position Call QSOs Busts % Busts
1 CN3A 13,659 233 1.7
2 FM5KC 7,324 200 2.7
3 OT5A 7,125 198 2.8
4 K1LZ 7,577 174 2.3
5 PJ2T 10,739 163 1.5
6 CQ8M 4,870 150 3.1
7 CR6K 9,443 149 1.6
8 ZF1A 9,973 143 1.4
9 F6KOP 6,423 140 2.2
10 EA8RM 11,501 139 1.2

2022 CW -- Most Busts
Position Call QSOs Busts % Busts
1 F6KOP 7,534 219 2.9
2 EA8RM 7,981 194 2.4
3 CN3A 13,863 189 1.4
4 TK0C 12,254 188 1.5
5 JA3YBK 5,019 145 2.9
6 A71BX 3,542 144 4.1
7 OT7T 9,500 143 1.5
8 IB1D 2,719 141 5.2
9 LZ9W 11,215 138 1.2
10 PJ2T 11,682 134 1.1

2022 SSB -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥100 QSOs)
Position Call QSOs Busts % Busts
1 IS0AGY 108 20 18.5
2 YD1CMZ 132 20 15.2
3 VU2OO 165 24 14.5
4 WB7EUJ 161 23 14.3
5 YB1KEL 162 23 14.2
6 VR2UNG 120 17 14.2
7 YB2SPP 102 14 13.7
8 YF1ANL 102 14 13.7
9 W5AAG 126 16 12.7
10 UA3PI 183 21 11.5

2022 CW -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥100 QSOs)
Position Call QSOs Busts % Busts
1 AI2U 141 34 24.1
2 OK1MKD 110 25 22.7
3 CM3OR 193 41 21.2
4 DL7CO 181 37 20.4
5 JJ5NFT 191 39 20.4
6 K9HXO 215 42 19.5
7 CE6VMO 295 53 18.0
8 JK1CNL 131 22 16.8
9 DL4DRG 146 24 16.4
10 VU2VTI 117 19 16.2

2022 SSB -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥100 QSOs)
Position Call QSOs Busts % Busts
1 IS0AGY 108 20 18.5
2 YD1CMZ 132 20 15.2
3 VU2OO 165 24 14.5
4 WB7EUJ 161 23 14.3
5 YB1KEL 162 23 14.2
6 VR2UNG 120 17 14.2
7 YB2SPP 102 14 13.7
8 YF1ANL 102 14 13.7
9 W5AAG 126 16 12.7
10 UA3PI 183 21 11.5

2022 CW -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥100 QSOs)
Position Call QSOs Busts % Busts
1 AI2U 141 34 24.1
2 OK1MKD 110 25 22.7
3 CM3OR 193 41 21.2
4 DL7CO 181 37 20.4
5 JJ5NFT 191 39 20.4
6 K9HXO 215 42 19.5
7 CE6VMO 295 53 18.0
8 JK1CNL 131 22 16.8
9 DL4DRG 146 24 16.4
10 VU2VTI 117 19 16.2

2022 SSB -- Highest Percentage of Reverse Busts (≥100 QSOs)
Position Call QSOs % Reverse Busts
1 NP4WW 147 100.0
2 PT4Z 1,011 20.3
3 TA7YLY 209 18.2
4 9M4BCN 170 17.1
5 BY4DX 918 14.5
6 OZ0JD 459 13.1
7 BD3OD 114 12.3
8 CT2KNA 1,122 10.8
9 YC0BOY 115 10.4
10 BG6HOK 117 10.3

2022 CW -- Highest Percentage of Reverse Busts (≥100 QSOs)
Position Call QSOs % Reverse Busts
1 F5PP 216 19.4
2 N3HEE 340 13.5
3 HB75SG 119 13.4
4 EB7A 6,198 13.1
5 SP2HHX 505 12.7
6 IU2OZV 356 11.8
7 W0GJ 452 11.7
8 K3HW 505 11.3
9 SV0SYH 170 11.2
10 BG3HMQ 117 10.3

In tables of reverse busts, one sometimes finds what seems like an unreasonable number of reverse busts (as is the case, for example, for NP4WW in the 2022 SSB table above). This is generally caused by a discrepancy between the call actually sent by the listed station and the one recorded as being sent in at least some QSOs in the station's log.

2013--2022 SSB -- Most Busts
Position Call QSOs Busts % Busts
1 LZ9W 91,388 1,633 1.8
2 CN3A 79,598 1,437 1.8
3 OT5A 61,077 1,275 2.1
4 PJ2T 71,347 1,261 1.8
5 A73A 55,906 1,080 1.9
6 V26B 54,777 929 1.7
7 YT5A 61,330 895 1.5
8 II2S 48,429 870 1.8
9 ED1R 56,728 837 1.5
10 CR6K 50,573 813 1.6

2013--2022 CW -- Most Busts
Position Call QSOs Busts % Busts
1 LZ9W 104,970 1,176 1.1
2 PJ2T 91,720 1,155 1.3
3 TK0C 73,216 1,092 1.5
4 PI4CC 48,781 970 2.0
5 ZW8T 12,253 881 7.2
6 JA3YBK 48,387 862 1.8
7 RW0A 49,639 830 1.7
8 YT5A 80,598 772 1.0
9 HG7T 68,110 771 1.1
10 VY2TT 46,404 746 1.6

2013--2022 SSB -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥500 QSOs)
Position Call QSOs Busts % Busts
1 K2JMY 1,632 262 16.1
2 EA7JQT 572 71 12.4
3 JR1MQT 775 89 11.5
4 OH1TS 660 75 11.4
5 EA1HTF 1,762 177 10.0
6 PU2TRX 655 65 9.9
7 EA4GWL 931 91 9.8
8 IS0ILP 553 53 9.6
9 LU4DJB 672 64 9.5
10 YB9KA 706 67 9.5

2013--2022 CW -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥500 QSOs)
Position Call QSOs Busts % Busts
1 W2UDT 668 148 22.2
2 BD3MV 896 189 21.1
3 4Z5FW 527 108 20.5
4 DJ5UZ 723 136 18.8
5 DL7CO 991 164 16.5
6 WP3Y 570 93 16.3
7 CE6VMO 695 111 16.0
8 AE3D 1,016 161 15.8
9 LZ1BY 789 124 15.7
10 IK0YUO 670 104 15.5

2013--2022 SSB -- Most Reverse Busts
Position Call QSOs Reverse Busts % Reverse Busts
1 DF0HQ 83,594 2,489 3.0
2 JA3YBK 34,097 1,177 3.5
3 CN3A 79,598 1,084 1.4
4 TM3R 24,257 1,049 4.3
5 K3LR 67,007 1,019 1.5
6 CA3CLF 982 915 93.2
7 IK2YCW 25,411 830 3.3
8 GM2T 34,451 781 2.3
9 OT5A 61,077 775 1.3
10 YT5A 61,330 765 1.2

2013--2022 CW -- Most Reverse Busts
Position Call QSOs Reverse Busts % Reverse Busts
1 JS3CTQ 22,376 2,689 12.0
2 DF0HQ 80,316 2,602 3.2
3 ES9C 72,304 2,252 3.1
4 HG7T 68,110 1,572 2.3
5 R2VM 1,426 1,426 100.0
6 W2FU 53,926 1,421 2.6
7 RM9A 63,391 1,399 2.2
8 K3LR 70,698 1,354 1.9
9 YT5A 80,598 1,325 1.6
10 DR4A 52,681 1,273 2.4

2013--2022 SSB -- Highest Percentage of Reverse Busts (≥500 QSOs)
Position Call QSOs % Reverse Busts
1 CA3CLF 982 93.2
2 PT4Z 1,011 20.3
3 ZP6DYA 963 12.1
4 OG60F 4,258 11.4
5 BY4DX 1,269 11.3
6 BH7PCT 846 10.9
7 LU9DDJ 862 10.4
8 BV55D 919 10.2
9 JG3SVP 1,270 10.1
10 DX3EVM 527 10.1

2013--2022 CW -- Highest Percentage of Reverse Busts (≥500 QSOs)
Position Call QSOs % Reverse Busts
1 R2VM 1,426 100.0
2 YT65A 1,149 37.2
3 G3RWF 2,682 35.5
4 5K0A 1,853 32.1
5 PE75W 1,408 29.3
6 OG55W 3,265 28.6
7 TA1C/2 1,513 18.1
8 DP65HSC 516 16.9
9 5J1E 1,523 15.6
10 SB0A 1,102 15.5