## 2024-03-10

### Busting Calls: CQ WW 2023

Prior posts in this series:

Throughout this post, I apply the procedures developed in the second post above.

For the purpose of this post, only verified QSOs are counted.

### Lowest Probability

I begin with an ordered list of the stations with the lowest probabilities of busting a call in 2023 CQ WW SSB.

2023 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (all)
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 G0MTN 0.0004 2,056 0
2 DL1NEO 0.0009 1,069 0
3 W9MR 0.0009 1,061 0
4 KW1X 0.0010 910 0
5 W1TC 0.0012 821 0
6 ES2MC 0.0012 790 0
7 N4PQX 0.0013 747 0
8 HA1BB 0.0014 709 0
9 W4EEY 0.0014 693 0
10 OE6MDF 0.0015 2,044 2

And for 2023 CQ WW CW:

2023 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (all)
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 DM2M 0.0005 1,850 0
2 W3KB 0.0007 1,281 0
3 JG1LFR 0.0008 1,125 0
4 OR2F 0.0008 2,366 1
5 DL6RDR 0.0009 1,108 0
6 N2GC 0.0010 2,091 1
8 SN5J 0.0010 1,966 1
9 UX1VT 0.0010 914 0
10 DK5TX 0.0011 1,790 1

It is interesting to plot the aggregated probability function for $p_{bust}$ weighted by the verified number of QSOs, $Q_v$, for all stations:

In case it isn't clear, the location of the solid vertical lines represent the weighted means of the probability curves. In 2023, then, there was essentially no difference between these curves for CW and SSB.

We can limit the analysis to calling stations (i.e., not the running station).

2023 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (no-run)
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 G0MTN 0.0007 1,362 0
2 NJ4P 0.0007 1,295 0
3 DL1NEO 0.0009 1,067 0
4 W9MR 0.0009 1,014 0
5 KW1X 0.0010 908 0
6 PC3M 0.0011 846 0
7 OK6T 0.0011 1,750 1
8 W1TC 0.0012 815 0
9 VE9AA 0.0013 728 0
10 HA1BB 0.0014 705 0

2023 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (no-run)
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 DM2M 0.0006 1,445 0
2 K3WJV 0.0007 1,299 0
3 SP9XCN 0.0008 1,161 0
4 LA8OM 0.0008 1,124 0
5 W3KB 0.0009 1,079 0
6 DL6RDR 0.0009 1,024 0
7 N2GC 0.0009 1,016 0
8 K9NW 0.0009 1,015 0
9 K1ZZ 0.0010 995 0
10 M6W 0.0010 2,073 1

And similarly for running stations.

2023 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (run)
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 OL0W 0.0009 1,043 0
2 MM1E 0.0010 956 0
3 G0MTN 0.0014 694 0
4 VE6BBP 0.0017 563 0
5 DL8OBF 0.0019 514 0
6 SP9XCN 0.0019 500 0
7 K3CT 0.0020 482 0
8 9K2HN 0.0021 1,923 3
9 BV2A 0.0023 426 0
10 KU2M 0.0023 862 1

2023 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (run)
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 E72U 0.0010 941 0
2 OR2F 0.0012 1,714 1
3 DJ3RA 0.0016 607 0
4 N2GC 0.0019 1,075 1
5 K1ZZ 0.0019 2,670 4
6 WB4TDH 0.0019 499 0
7 AH6KO 0.0021 1,413 2
8 OQ5M 0.0022 1,390 2
9 W8FJ 0.0022 1,840 3
10 N3NR 0.0023 417 0

We can also look at the changes over the period from 2005 to 2023.

First for all QSOs:

Then for calling stations:

And for running stations:

The clear up-tick on CW in 2023 is rather interesting. At first, I thought that it might be due to people logging calls mis-spotted on the various spotting networks. But its presence when one limits the analysis to running stations would seem to make that theory untenable. Perhaps it is due to an increase in entrants using code readers, although one would expect few runners to be using those. So this might be an interesting area for further analysis, should anyone be interested. It really is a quite remarkable year-on-year change.

I think it's also interesting to see who appears to have the lowest probability of busting a call over an extended period. So, for the last ten years:

2014--2023 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (all)
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 NW5Q 0.0005 1,971 0
2 IZ4JMA 0.0005 1,705 0
3 ES2MC 0.0006 3,570 1
4 OZ6AGX 0.0006 1,578 0
5 EW1IP 0.0006 1,495 0
6 OH6GDX 0.0006 1,437 0
7 OH7GGX 0.0007 3,094 1
8 IK4OMU 0.0007 1,376 0
9 IK1PMR 0.0007 2,813 1
10 W4EE 0.0008 1,224 0

2014--2023 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (all)
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 NW0M 0.0002 3,875 0
2 N7IR 0.0003 2,558 0
4 WB4TDH 0.0004 5,437 1
5 K6WSC 0.0004 5,134 1
6 KM3T 0.0005 1,966 0
7 K9PW 0.0005 1,947 0
8 JR3RWB 0.0005 1,892 0
9 DP4X 0.0005 4,132 1
10 SE6N 0.0005 4,055 1

A good argument can be made that a better measure of copying ability is to consider only run QSOs:

2014--2023 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (run)
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 F4FTA 0.0009 1,098 0
2 DL7URH 0.0010 928 0
3 C6ARW 0.0010 1,925 1
4 ES2MC 0.0011 1,802 1
5 LU1FAM 0.0011 1,765 1
6 CF7RR 0.0013 1,557 1
7 DL8RDL 0.0013 734 0
8 R7MM 0.0013 728 0
9 VA7RR 0.0015 5,494 7
10 K1ZZ 0.0016 605 0

2014--2023 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (run)
Position Call weighted mean $Q_v$ $B$
1 LY3CY 0.0005 1,755 0
2 RW5CW 0.0006 1,431 0
3 WB4TDH 0.0007 3,049 1
4 W3OA 0.0007 1,354 0
5 E72U 0.0008 3,893 2
6 SE6N 0.0008 1,202 0
7 KM3T 0.0008 1,193 0
8 OH6MW 0.0008 2,372 1
9 R2VM 0.0009 1,040 0
10 UA3QAM 0.0010 998 0

#### Highest Probability

We can also look at the calls associated with the highest probability of busting calls in either the forward or the reverse direction:

2023 SSB -- Most Busts
Position Call QSOs Busts % Busts
1 CN3A 15,944 276 1.7
2 6Y1V 7,660 228 3.0
3 II9P 6,697 203 3.0
4 CQ8M 5,495 202 3.7
5 LS2D 4,382 194 4.4
6 TO5A 7,390 190 2.6
7 OT5A 7,273 186 2.6
8 HI3LT 4,965 161 3.2
9 PJ2T 8,812 154 1.7
10 CR6K 9,992 149 1.5

2023 CW -- Most Busts
Position Call QSOs Busts % Busts
1 EA8RM 7,777 307 3.9
2 D4C 16,145 270 1.7
3 TM1A 8,232 246 3.0
4 CN3A 14,689 213 1.5
5 PJ2T 11,532 213 1.8
6 OT7T 9,412 205 2.2
7 II2S 10,153 184 1.8
8 PX2A 7,508 181 2.4
9 HQ9X 8,454 171 2.0
10 RM9A 9,587 167 1.7

2023 SSB -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥100 QSOs)
Position Call QSOs Busts % Busts
1 YB1EQI 109 20 18.3
2 BA7JMO 110 18 16.4
3 C31LK 109 17 15.6
4 IS0AGY 105 15 14.3
5 YF4SDF 106 15 14.2
6 UR5ZDZ 213 30 14.1
7 SA6PBW 125 17 13.6
8 CE3TKG 152 20 13.2
9 BG6QLL 100 13 13.0
10 OH1TS 103 13 12.6

2023 CW -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥100 QSOs)
Position Call QSOs Busts % Busts
1 IW2OGY 127 26 20.5
2 9M2KDX 113 22 19.5
3 K3GG 154 29 18.8
4 VE4DL 171 32 18.7
5 K9HXO 149 27 18.1
6 AI2U 224 40 17.9
7 EF4F 185 33 17.8
8 LA6M 346 61 17.6
9 SP2EPV 234 41 17.5
10 SM5DNO 112 19 17.0

2023 SSB -- Most Reverse Busts
Position Call QSOs Reverse Busts % Reverse Busts
1 DF0HQ 9,933 305 3.1
2 9A1A 11,223 277 2.5
3 EA8RM 7,159 260 3.6
4 YT5A 11,767 186 1.6
5 CN3A 15,944 185 1.2
6 CR6K 9,992 163 1.6
7 LZ6V 2,070 163 7.9
8 LU8DPM 2,770 161 5.8
9 EW5A 7,578 158 2.1
10 S53M 5,884 156 2.7

2023 CW -- Most Reverse Busts
Position Call QSOs Reverse Busts % Reverse Busts
1 UT3NK 528 528 100.0
2 JF1NHD 3,508 429 12.2
3 RM9A 9,587 404 4.2
4 SM0HRP 2,190 387 17.7
5 II2S 10,153 361 3.6
6 DF0HQ 9,526 271 2.8
7 YT5A 11,522 266 2.3
8 RT4F 8,369 260 3.1
9 CN3A 14,689 258 1.8
10 K3LR 9,083 252 2.8

2023 SSB -- Highest Percentage of Reverse Busts (≥100 QSOs)
Position Call QSOs % Reverse Busts
1 DX3EVM 320 15.6
2 UA3R 191 14.7
3 DU1QVK 190 13.2
4 BG7SSK 146 11.0
5 KE7NGO 174 10.9
6 K9CJ 120 10.8
7 BA7MT 195 10.8
8 VK2DG 322 9.9
9 HZ1SK 357 9.8
10 9A5AFF 543 9.8

2023 CW -- Highest Percentage of Reverse Busts (≥100 QSOs)
Position Call QSOs % Reverse Busts
1 UT3NK 528 100.0
2 SQ2RH 102 30.4
3 DF5GO 125 20.8
4 SA5CDO 274 18.6
5 SM0HRP 2,190 17.7
6 CB4EW 117 15.4
7 N5NHJ 325 14.8
8 SQ6MIH 421 14.7
9 SA6AUN 220 14.1
10 K4HQK 296 13.2

In tables of reverse busts, one sometimes finds what seems like an unreasonable number of reverse busts (as is the case, for example, for UT3NK in the 2023 CW table above). This is generally caused by a discrepancy between the call actually sent by the listed station and the one recorded as being sent in at least some QSOs in the station's log. Other causes of frequent reverse busts are poor sending/audio, unusual calls and calls that are very similar to the call of an active, well-known contester.

Looking at a ten-year period:

2014--2023 SSB -- Most Busts
Position Call QSOs Busts % Busts
1 LZ9W 93,344 1,627 1.7
2 CN3A 86,528 1,534 1.8
3 OT5A 59,537 1,288 2.2
4 PJ2T 70,334 1,231 1.8
5 YT5A 73,097 1,043 1.4
6 V26B 59,233 1,008 1.7
7 A73A 53,842 958 1.8
8 II2S 53,546 905 1.7
9 CR6K 56,086 866 1.5
10 CQ8M 26,546 826 3.1

2014--2023 CW -- Most Busts
Position Call QSOs Busts % Busts
1 PJ2T 92,331 1,213 1.3
2 LZ9W 106,254 1,138 1.1
3 TK0C 73,216 1,092 1.5
4 YT5A 90,512 904 1.0
5 JA3YBK 48,207 882 1.8
6 PI4CC 42,027 825 2.0
7 EA8RM 32,842 791 2.4
8 ZW8T 11,756 789 6.7
9 HG7T 68,957 763 1.1
10 VY2TT 46,723 757 1.6

2014--2023 SSB -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥500 QSOs)
Position Call QSOs Busts % Busts
1 K2JMY 1,278 217 17.0
2 IS0AGY 527 86 16.3
3 YB2BNN 632 87 13.8
4 EA7JQT 572 71 12.4
5 R9MBY 534 63 11.8
6 OH1TS 763 88 11.5
7 EA1HTF 1,762 177 10.0
8 UR5ZDZ 1,107 111 10.0
9 EA4GWL 931 91 9.8
10 EA8DEG 1,125 108 9.6

2014--2023 CW -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥500 QSOs)
Position Call QSOs Busts % Busts
1 W2UDT 564 138 24.5
2 4Z5FW 527 108 20.5
3 BD3MV 708 145 20.5
4 DJ5UZ 723 136 18.8
5 SP2EPV 510 93 18.2
6 AE3D 775 140 18.1
7 DL7CO 827 140 16.9
8 CE6VMO 695 111 16.0
9 LZ1BY 789 124 15.7
10 PY1NSC 573 89 15.5

2014--2023 SSB -- Most Reverse Busts
Position Call QSOs Reverse Busts % Reverse Busts
1 DF0HQ 85,290 2,560 3.0
2 CN3A 86,528 1,178 1.4
3 JA3YBK 33,724 1,115 3.3
4 TM3R 24,257 1,049 4.3
5 K3LR 65,887 977 1.5
6 YT5A 73,097 951 1.3
7 EA8RM 32,239 923 2.9
8 CA3CLF 982 915 93.2
9 IK2YCW 25,411 830 3.3
10 OT5A 59,537 809 1.4

2014--2023 CW -- Most Reverse Busts
Position Call QSOs Reverse Busts % Reverse Busts
1 DF0HQ 80,526 2,549 3.2
2 JS3CTQ 20,632 2,405 11.7
3 ES9C 59,518 1,862 3.1
4 RM9A 72,978 1,803 2.5
5 HG7T 68,957 1,656 2.4
6 YT5A 90,512 1,560 1.7
7 R2VM 1,426 1,426 100.0
8 K3LR 70,437 1,403 2.0
9 HG6N 47,920 1,361 2.8
10 DR4A 54,247 1,339 2.5

2014--2023 SSB -- Highest Percentage of Reverse Busts (≥500 QSOs)
Position Call QSOs % Reverse Busts
1 CA3CLF 982 93.2
2 PT4Z 1,011 20.3
3 DX3EVM 847 12.2
4 ZP6DYA 963 12.1
5 OG60F 4,258 11.4
6 OA4DKN 511 11.4
7 BH7PCT 846 10.9
8 LU9DDJ 862 10.4
9 HS3PIK 674 9.9
10 BY4DX 1,611 9.9

2014--2023 CW -- Highest Percentage of Reverse Busts (≥500 QSOs)
Position Call QSOs % Reverse Busts
1 R2VM 1,426 100.0
2 UT3NK 528 100.0
3 YT65A 1,149 37.2
4 G3RWF 2,682 35.5
5 5K0A 1,853 32.1
6 PE75W 1,408 29.3
7 OG55W 3,265 28.6
8 TA1C/2 1,513 18.1
9 DP65HSC 516 16.9
10 5J1E 1,523 15.6