Busting Calls: CQ WW 2024

 Prior posts in this series:

• Initial analysis
• Further analysis
• CQ WW SSB 2005 to 2016 
• CQ WW CW 2005 to 2016
• Non-Run QSOs, CQ WW 2005 to 2016
• Run QSOs, CQ WW 2005 to 2016
• 2017, 2018
• 2019
• 2020
• 2021
• 2022
• 2023 
  

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Throughout this post, I apply the procedures developed in the second post above.

For the purpose of this post, only verified QSOs are counted.

Lowest Probability

I begin with an ordered list of the stations with the lowest probabilities of busting a call in 2024 CQ WW SSB.

2024 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (all)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	UT7W	0.0006	1,466	0
2	OK6Y	0.0007	1,388	0
3	PA6AA	0.0009	1,074	0
4	SP9XCN	0.0009	2,243	1
5	NS3T	0.0010	976	0
6	KT4XA	0.0010	917	0
7	DL1NEO	0.0011	888	0
8	DJ4MX	0.0011	1,816	1
9	YO4RDW	0.0012	1,704	1
10	SV8SYK	0.0012	801	0

And for 2024 CQ WW CW:

2024 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (all)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	OR2F	0.0003	2,925	0
2	NW0M	0.0008	1,200	0
3	DJ4MX	0.0008	2,477	1
4	RA9AP	0.0009	1,073	0
5	DL1NEO	0.0009	1,007	0
6	G6A	0.0010	982	0
7	LY3CY	0.0010	976	0
8	N8HRZ	0.0010	968	0
9	K2EP	0.0010	944	0
10	SM7CIL	0.0010	942	0

It is interesting to plot the aggregated probability function for $p_{bust}$ weighted by the verified number of QSOs, $Q_v$, for all stations:

In case it isn't clear, in the figure above the location of the solid vertical lines represent the weighted means of the probability curves. In 2024, then, there was essentially no difference between these curves for CW and SSB.

We can limit the analysis to calling stations (i.e., not the running station).

2024 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (no-run)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	K1ZZ	0.0007	1,393	0
2	UT7W	0.0007	1,385	0
3	SP9XCN	0.0008	1,158	0
4	YO4RDW	0.0009	1,107	0
5	OL0W	0.0009	1,021	0
6	NS3T	0.0010	972	0
7	PA6AA	0.0010	968	0
8	KT4XA	0.0010	914	0
9	DL1NEO	0.0011	884	0
10	N2RC	0.0011	839	0

2024 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (no-run)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	DJ4MX	0.0005	1,925	0
2	SP2LNW	0.0006	1,492	0
3	F8CRS	0.0006	1,454	0
4	SP9XCN	0.0007	1,262	0
5	DL4WA	0.0007	1,251	0
6	LA8OM	0.0008	1,160	0
7	EV1R	0.0008	1,120	0
8	DC6O	0.0008	1,112	0
9	N2GC	0.0009	1,102	0
10	PA2A	0.0009	1,102	0

  And similarly for running stations: 

2024 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (no-run)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	K1ZZ	0.0007	1,393	0
2	UT7W	0.0007	1,385	0
3	SP9XCN	0.0008	1,158	0
4	YO4RDW	0.0009	1,107	0
5	OL0W	0.0009	1,021	0
6	NS3T	0.0010	972	0
7	PA6AA	0.0010	968	0
8	KT4XA	0.0010	914	0
9	DL1NEO	0.0011	884	0
10	N2RC	0.0011	839	0

2024 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (no-run)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	DJ4MX	0.0005	1,925	0
2	SP2LNW	0.0006	1,492	0
3	F8CRS	0.0006	1,454	0
4	SP9XCN	0.0007	1,262	0
5	DL4WA	0.0007	1,251	0
6	LA8OM	0.0008	1,160	0
7	EV1R	0.0008	1,120	0
8	DC6O	0.0008	1,112	0
9	N2GC	0.0009	1,102	0
10	PA2A	0.0009	1,102	0

We can also look at the changes over the period from 2005 to 2023.

First for all QSOs:

Then for calling stations:

And for running stations:

The clear up-tick on CW in 2023 is rather interesting. At first, I thought that it might be due to people logging calls mis-spotted on the various spotting networks. But its presence when one limits the analysis to running stations would seem to make that theory untenable. Perhaps it is due to an increase in entrants using code readers, although one would expect few runners to be using those. So this might be an interesting area for further analysis, should anyone be interested. It really is a quite remarkable year-on-year change -- and especially so, given that in 2024 whatever caused the uptick seems to have gone away. Very odd.

I think it's also interesting to see who appears to have the lowest probability of busting a call over an extended period. So, for the ten years 2015 to 2024:

2015--2024 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (all)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	OK1WCF	0.0005	1,726	0
2	R3LC	0.0006	1,655	0
3	ES2MC	0.0006	3,570	1
4	OH7GGX	0.0006	3,287	1
5	UT7W	0.0006	1,466	0
6	IK4OMU	0.0006	1,435	0
7	LU1FAM	0.0007	1,400	0
8	K9PG	0.0007	2,795	1
9	NS3T	0.0008	2,679	1
10	DL5AXX	0.0008	1,234	0

2015--2024 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (all)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	NW0M	0.0002	4,888	0
2	UN4PD	0.0003	2,866	0
3	N0BK	0.0004	2,470	0
4	K9PW	0.0004	2,441	0
5	WB4TDH	0.0004	5,420	1
6	JN3SAC	0.0004	5,358	1
7	K6WSC	0.0004	5,295	1
8	JR3RWB	0.0004	2,092	0
9	AD1C	0.0005	4,339	1
10	DP4X	0.0005	4,132	1

A good argument can be made that a better measure of copying ability is to consider only run QSOs:

2015--2024 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (run)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	LU1FAM	0.0007	1,353	0
2	F4FTA	0.0010	996	0
3	R7MM	0.0010	963	0
4	K3CR	0.0010	930	0
5	C6ARW	0.0010	1,925	1
6	BV2A	0.0010	913	0
7	ES2MC	0.0011	1,802	1
8	CF7RR	0.0013	1,557	1
9	DL8RDL	0.0013	738	0
10	TK9R	0.0014	13,326	18

2015--2024 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (run)
Position	Call	weighted mean	$Q_v$	$B$
1	LY3CY	0.0005	1,882	0
2	RA3TT	0.0006	1,593	0
3	JN3SAC	0.0006	1,584	0
4	WB4TDH	0.0007	3,076	1
5	E72U	0.0008	3,893	2
6	OM8ON	0.0009	1,063	0
7	R2VM	0.0009	1,040	0
8	SE6N	0.0009	1,024	0
9	RG5A/6	0.0010	959	0
10	ZR2A/4	0.0010	951	0

Highest Probability

We can also look at the calls associated with the highest probability of busting calls in either the forward or the reverse direction:

2024 SSB -- Most Busts
Position	Call	QSOs	Busts	% Busts
1	TO5A	7,507	253	3.4
2	CN3A	15,940	206	1.3
3	LZ9W	12,353	176	1.4
4	OT5A	8,670	169	1.9
5	D4C	12,889	161	1.2
6	YT5A	11,501	161	1.4
7	9Z4BM	3,910	155	4.0
8	RW0A	6,192	153	2.5
9	PJ2T	9,404	151	1.6
10	CR6K	10,266	149	1.5

2024 CW -- Most Busts
Position	Call	QSOs	Busts	% Busts
1	RW0A	9,296	286	3.1
2	F6KOP	8,756	228	2.6
3	CN3A	15,100	198	1.3
4	JA3YBK	7,681	179	2.3
5	LZ9W	10,792	175	1.6
6	J8AA	2,860	167	5.8
7	3B8M	9,919	155	1.6
8	EI9E	3,972	154	3.9
9	ZF5T	8,650	148	1.7
10	PI4CC	5,745	144	2.5

2024 SSB -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥100 QSOs)
Position	Call	QSOs	Busts	% Busts
1	PY3AN	112	22	19.6
2	UB3PEQ	233	43	18.5
3	EY8BN	140	24	17.1
4	YB1BML	102	17	16.7
5	KA7A	112	16	14.3
6	ON4ANT	175	24	13.7
7	YC8GPH	121	16	13.2
8	YB2JPI	114	15	13.2
9	DR2P	239	31	13.0
10	UR4LIN	106	13	12.3

2024 CW -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥100 QSOs)
Position	Call	QSOs	Busts	% Busts
1	KL7NL	170	53	31.2
2	K9WD	201	48	23.9
3	W6WDA	201	43	21.4
4	W3FA	203	42	20.7
5	K4FHI	113	22	19.5
6	DU1AZ	147	27	18.4
7	R0LJC	142	26	18.3
8	KK6IK	100	18	18.0
9	AD7XG	246	44	17.9
10	YV5KG	120	21	17.5

2024 SSB -- Most Reverse Busts
Position	Call	QSOs	Reverse Busts	% Reverse Busts
1	CN3A	15,940	364	2.3
2	TM2Y	4,763	362	7.6
3	DF0HQ	11,697	342	2.9
4	JA3YBK	6,079	246	4.0
5	F6KOP	6,044	241	4.0
6	CQ3W	3,382	207	6.1
7	K3LR	10,693	194	1.8
8	SJ2W	7,108	183	2.6
9	9A1A	11,929	173	1.5
10	CR6K	10,266	159	1.5

2024 CW -- Most Reverse Busts
Position	Call	QSOs	Reverse Busts	% Reverse Busts
1	IP2A	7,773	437	5.6
2	DF0HQ	10,184	367	3.6
3	JF1NHD	3,859	319	8.3
4	EF6T	8,821	293	3.3
5	KP2B	5,640	249	4.4
6	HG6N	6,623	246	3.7
7	UA4M	8,189	240	2.9
8	ES9C	8,134	235	2.9
9	K3LR	10,521	234	2.2
10	RU1A	9,948	234	2.4

2024 SSB -- Highest Percentage of Reverse Busts (≥100 QSOs)
Position	Call	QSOs	% Reverse Busts
1	9M6T	232	22.8
2	PY6RL	280	15.0
3	BG8PK	120	12.5
4	LX1UN	139	12.2
5	BI3AO	524	12.2
6	BH8GFN	296	12.2
7	BA2BA	178	11.8
8	TI5LJR	145	11.7
9	NP3KW	142	11.3
10	PD0HGQ	107	11.2

2024 CW -- Highest Percentage of Reverse Busts (≥100 QSOs)
Position	Call	QSOs	% Reverse Busts
1	W5HI	202	30.7
2	DB4REB	103	17.5
3	SP2HHX	914	14.8
4	SM3LDP	141	13.5
5	VE3HZ	276	12.3
6	SA5ACN	105	11.4
7	K7HV	108	11.1
8	RD3BZ	127	11.0
9	PA3HHM	219	11.0
10	WZ8T	172	10.5

In tables of reverse busts, one sometimes finds what seems like an unreasonable number of reverse busts (as is the case, for example, for UT3NK in the 2023 CW table). This is generally caused by a discrepancy between the call actually sent by the listed station and the one recorded as being sent in at least some QSOs in the station's log. Other causes of frequent reverse busts are poor sending/audio, unusual calls and calls that are very similar to the call of an active, well-known contester.

Looking at a ten-year period:

2015--2024 SSB -- Most Busts
Position	Call	QSOs	Busts	% Busts
1	LZ9W	95,437	1,602	1.7
2	CN3A	93,003	1,566	1.7
3	PJ2T	73,860	1,298	1.8
4	OT5A	59,657	1,296	2.2
5	YT5A	82,149	1,179	1.4
6	V26B	65,195	1,075	1.6
7	CR6K	62,060	959	1.5
8	CQ8M	32,061	948	3.0
9	II2S	58,654	927	1.6
10	M6T	72,760	927	1.3

2015--2024 CW -- Most Busts
Position	Call	QSOs	Busts	% Busts
1	TK0C	83,088	1,195	1.4
2	LZ9W	105,335	1,189	1.1
3	PJ2T	93,000	1,177	1.3
4	YT5A	99,485	996	1.0
5	JA3YBK	49,677	958	1.9
6	CN3A	66,780	909	1.4
7	RW0A	46,858	892	1.9
8	F6KOP	32,212	884	2.7
9	PI4CC	41,613	877	2.1
10	M6T	87,047	858	1.0

2015--2024 SSB -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥500 QSOs)
Position	Call	QSOs	Busts	% Busts
1	K2JMY	836	134	16.0
2	IS0AGY	638	99	15.5
3	YB2BNN	632	87	13.8
4	OH1TS	692	86	12.4
5	EA1HTF	1,762	177	10.0
6	R9MBY	773	76	9.8
7	EA4GWL	931	91	9.8
8	LU4DJB	672	64	9.5
9	E20WXA	688	64	9.3
10	YO8RKP	632	58	9.2

2015--2024 CW -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥500 QSOs)
Position	Call	QSOs	Busts	% Busts
1	W2UDT	564	138	24.5
2	DJ5UZ	723	136	18.8
3	SP2EPV	510	93	18.2
4	DL7CO	827	140	16.9
5	AI2U	555	90	16.2
6	CE6VMO	695	111	16.0
7	LZ1BY	789	124	15.7
8	IK0YUO	670	104	15.5
9	LA6M	814	121	14.9
10	9A/AI6V	1,833	263	14.3

2015--2024 SSB -- Most Reverse Busts
Position	Call	QSOs	Reverse Busts	% Reverse Busts
1	DF0HQ	87,443	2,632	3.0
2	CN3A	93,003	1,431	1.5
3	JA3YBK	34,354	1,208	3.5
4	YT5A	82,149	1,059	1.3
5	TM3R	24,257	1,049	4.3
6	K3LR	68,168	1,044	1.5
7	EA8RM	35,707	955	2.7
8	CA3CLF	982	915	93.2
9	RU1A	49,725	845	1.7
10	9A1A	41,198	845	2.1

2015--2024 CW -- Most Reverse Busts
Position	Call	QSOs	Reverse Busts	% Reverse Busts
1	DF0HQ	80,414	2,619	3.3
2	JS3CTQ	20,716	2,231	10.8
3	ES9C	67,652	2,097	3.1
4	RM9A	74,759	1,848	2.5
5	YT5A	99,485	1,723	1.7
6	HG7T	68,884	1,688	2.5
7	HG6N	50,392	1,485	2.9
8	UA4M	67,774	1,450	2.1
9	K3LR	70,955	1,440	2.0
10	R2VM	1,426	1,426	100.0

2015--2024 SSB -- Highest Percentage of Reverse Busts (≥500 QSOs)
Position	Call	QSOs	% Reverse Busts
1	CA3CLF	982	93.2
2	PT4Z	1,011	20.3
3	BI3AO	524	12.2
4	DX3EVM	847	12.2
5	ZP6DYA	963	12.1
6	OG60F	4,258	11.4
7	OA4DKN	511	11.4
8	BH7PCT	846	10.9
9	PS8HF	537	10.6
10	LU9DDJ	862	10.4

2015--2024 CW -- Highest Percentage of Reverse Busts (≥500 QSOs)
Position	Call	QSOs	% Reverse Busts
1	R2VM	1,426	100.0
2	UT3NK	528	100.0
3	YT65A	1,149	37.2
4	PE75W	1,408	29.3
5	OG55W	2,387	25.6
6	TA1C/2	1,513	18.1
7	DP65HSC	516	16.9
8	5J1E	1,523	15.6
9	SV7CUD	537	14.5
10	F8CRH	946	13.5