Prior posts in this series:
Throughout this post, I apply the procedures developed in the second post above.
For the purpose of this post, only
verified QSOs are counted.
Lowest Probability
I begin with an ordered list of the stations with the lowest probabilities
of busting a call in 2023 CQ WW SSB.
2023 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (all)
|
Position |
Call |
weighted mean |
$Q_v$ |
$B$ |
1 |
G0MTN |
0.0004 |
2,056 |
0 |
2 |
DL1NEO |
0.0009 |
1,069 |
0 |
3 |
W9MR |
0.0009 |
1,061 |
0 |
4 |
KW1X |
0.0010 |
910 |
0 |
5 |
W1TC |
0.0012 |
821 |
0 |
6 |
ES2MC |
0.0012 |
790 |
0 |
7 |
N4PQX |
0.0013 |
747 |
0 |
8 |
HA1BB |
0.0014 |
709 |
0 |
9 |
W4EEY |
0.0014 |
693 |
0 |
10 |
OE6MDF |
0.0015 |
2,044 |
2 |
And for 2023 CQ WW CW:
2023 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (all)
|
Position |
Call |
weighted mean |
$Q_v$ |
$B$ |
1 |
DM2M |
0.0005 |
1,850 |
0 |
2 |
W3KB |
0.0007 |
1,281 |
0 |
3 |
JG1LFR |
0.0008 |
1,125 |
0 |
4 |
OR2F |
0.0008 |
2,366 |
1 |
5 |
DL6RDR |
0.0009 |
1,108 |
0 |
6 |
N2GC |
0.0010 |
2,091 |
1 |
7 |
AD1C |
0.0010 |
945 |
0 |
8 |
SN5J |
0.0010 |
1,966 |
1 |
9 |
UX1VT |
0.0010 |
914 |
0 |
10 |
DK5TX |
0.0011 |
1,790 |
1 |
It is interesting to plot the aggregated probability
function for $p_{bust}$ weighted by the verified number of QSOs, $Q_v$,
for all stations:
In case it isn't clear, the location of the solid vertical lines represent the weighted means of the probability curves. In 2023, then, there was essentially no difference between these curves for CW and SSB.
We can limit the analysis to calling stations (i.e., not the running station).
2023 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (no-run)
|
Position |
Call |
weighted mean |
$Q_v$ |
$B$ |
1 |
G0MTN |
0.0007 |
1,362 |
0 |
2 |
NJ4P |
0.0007 |
1,295 |
0 |
3 |
DL1NEO |
0.0009 |
1,067 |
0 |
4 |
W9MR |
0.0009 |
1,014 |
0 |
5 |
KW1X |
0.0010 |
908 |
0 |
6 |
PC3M |
0.0011 |
846 |
0 |
7 |
OK6T |
0.0011 |
1,750 |
1 |
8 |
W1TC |
0.0012 |
815 |
0 |
9 |
VE9AA |
0.0013 |
728 |
0 |
10 |
HA1BB |
0.0014 |
705 |
0 |
2023 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (no-run)
|
Position |
Call |
weighted mean |
$Q_v$ |
$B$ |
1 |
DM2M |
0.0006 |
1,445 |
0 |
2 |
K3WJV |
0.0007 |
1,299 |
0 |
3 |
SP9XCN |
0.0008 |
1,161 |
0 |
4 |
LA8OM |
0.0008 |
1,124 |
0 |
5 |
W3KB |
0.0009 |
1,079 |
0 |
6 |
DL6RDR |
0.0009 |
1,024 |
0 |
7 |
N2GC |
0.0009 |
1,016 |
0 |
8 |
K9NW |
0.0009 |
1,015 |
0 |
9 |
K1ZZ |
0.0010 |
995 |
0 |
10 |
M6W |
0.0010 |
2,073 |
1 |
And similarly for running stations.
2023 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (run)
|
Position |
Call |
weighted mean |
$Q_v$ |
$B$ |
1 |
OL0W |
0.0009 |
1,043 |
0 |
2 |
MM1E |
0.0010 |
956 |
0 |
3 |
G0MTN |
0.0014 |
694 |
0 |
4 |
VE6BBP |
0.0017 |
563 |
0 |
5 |
DL8OBF |
0.0019 |
514 |
0 |
6 |
SP9XCN |
0.0019 |
500 |
0 |
7 |
K3CT |
0.0020 |
482 |
0 |
8 |
9K2HN |
0.0021 |
1,923 |
3 |
9 |
BV2A |
0.0023 |
426 |
0 |
10 |
KU2M |
0.0023 |
862 |
1 |
2023 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (run)
|
Position |
Call |
weighted mean |
$Q_v$ |
$B$ |
1 |
E72U |
0.0010 |
941 |
0 |
2 |
OR2F |
0.0012 |
1,714 |
1 |
3 |
DJ3RA |
0.0016 |
607 |
0 |
4 |
N2GC |
0.0019 |
1,075 |
1 |
5 |
K1ZZ |
0.0019 |
2,670 |
4 |
6 |
WB4TDH |
0.0019 |
499 |
0 |
7 |
AH6KO |
0.0021 |
1,413 |
2 |
8 |
OQ5M |
0.0022 |
1,390 |
2 |
9 |
W8FJ |
0.0022 |
1,840 |
3 |
10 |
N3NR |
0.0023 |
417 |
0 |
We can also look at the changes over the period from 2005 to 2023.
First for all QSOs:
Then for calling stations:
And for running stations:
The clear up-tick on CW in 2023 is rather interesting. At first, I
thought that it might be due to people logging calls mis-spotted on the
various spotting networks. But its presence when one limits the analysis
to running stations would seem to make that theory untenable. Perhaps
it is due to an increase in entrants using code readers, although one
would expect few runners to be using those. So this might be an
interesting area for further analysis, should anyone be interested. It
really is a quite remarkable year-on-year change.
I
think it's also interesting to see who appears to have the lowest
probability of busting a call over an extended period. So, for the last
ten years:
2014--2023 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (all)
|
Position |
Call |
weighted mean |
$Q_v$ |
$B$ |
1 |
NW5Q |
0.0005 |
1,971 |
0 |
2 |
IZ4JMA |
0.0005 |
1,705 |
0 |
3 |
ES2MC |
0.0006 |
3,570 |
1 |
4 |
OZ6AGX |
0.0006 |
1,578 |
0 |
5 |
EW1IP |
0.0006 |
1,495 |
0 |
6 |
OH6GDX |
0.0006 |
1,437 |
0 |
7 |
OH7GGX |
0.0007 |
3,094 |
1 |
8 |
IK4OMU |
0.0007 |
1,376 |
0 |
9 |
IK1PMR |
0.0007 |
2,813 |
1 |
10 |
W4EE |
0.0008 |
1,224 |
0 |
2014--2023 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (all)
|
Position |
Call |
weighted mean |
$Q_v$ |
$B$ |
1 |
NW0M |
0.0002 |
3,875 |
0 |
2 |
N7IR |
0.0003 |
2,558 |
0 |
3 |
AD1C |
0.0004 |
5,676 |
1 |
4 |
WB4TDH |
0.0004 |
5,437 |
1 |
5 |
K6WSC |
0.0004 |
5,134 |
1 |
6 |
KM3T |
0.0005 |
1,966 |
0 |
7 |
K9PW |
0.0005 |
1,947 |
0 |
8 |
JR3RWB |
0.0005 |
1,892 |
0 |
9 |
DP4X |
0.0005 |
4,132 |
1 |
10 |
SE6N |
0.0005 |
4,055 |
1 |
A good argument can be made that a better measure of copying ability is to consider only run QSOs:
2014--2023 CQ WW SSB -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (run)
|
Position |
Call |
weighted mean |
$Q_v$ |
$B$ |
1 |
F4FTA |
0.0009 |
1,098 |
0 |
2 |
DL7URH |
0.0010 |
928 |
0 |
3 |
C6ARW |
0.0010 |
1,925 |
1 |
4 |
ES2MC |
0.0011 |
1,802 |
1 |
5 |
LU1FAM |
0.0011 |
1,765 |
1 |
6 |
CF7RR |
0.0013 |
1,557 |
1 |
7 |
DL8RDL |
0.0013 |
734 |
0 |
8 |
R7MM |
0.0013 |
728 |
0 |
9 |
VA7RR |
0.0015 |
5,494 |
7 |
10 |
K1ZZ |
0.0016 |
605 |
0 |
2014--2023 CQ WW CW -- weighted mean values of $p_{bust}$ (run)
|
Position |
Call |
weighted mean |
$Q_v$ |
$B$ |
1 |
LY3CY |
0.0005 |
1,755 |
0 |
2 |
RW5CW |
0.0006 |
1,431 |
0 |
3 |
WB4TDH |
0.0007 |
3,049 |
1 |
4 |
W3OA |
0.0007 |
1,354 |
0 |
5 |
E72U |
0.0008 |
3,893 |
2 |
6 |
SE6N |
0.0008 |
1,202 |
0 |
7 |
KM3T |
0.0008 |
1,193 |
0 |
8 |
OH6MW |
0.0008 |
2,372 |
1 |
9 |
R2VM |
0.0009 |
1,040 |
0 |
10 |
UA3QAM |
0.0010 |
998 |
0 |
Highest Probability
We can also look at the calls associated with the highest probability of
busting calls in either the forward or the reverse direction:
2023 SSB -- Most Busts |
Position |
Call |
QSOs |
Busts |
% Busts |
1 |
CN3A |
15,944 |
276 |
1.7 |
2 |
6Y1V |
7,660 |
228 |
3.0 |
3 |
II9P |
6,697 |
203 |
3.0 |
4 |
CQ8M |
5,495 |
202 |
3.7 |
5 |
LS2D |
4,382 |
194 |
4.4 |
6 |
TO5A |
7,390 |
190 |
2.6 |
7 |
OT5A |
7,273 |
186 |
2.6 |
8 |
HI3LT |
4,965 |
161 |
3.2 |
9 |
PJ2T |
8,812 |
154 |
1.7 |
10 |
CR6K |
9,992 |
149 |
1.5 |
2023 CW -- Most Busts |
Position |
Call |
QSOs |
Busts |
% Busts |
1 |
EA8RM |
7,777 |
307 |
3.9 |
2 |
D4C |
16,145 |
270 |
1.7 |
3 |
TM1A |
8,232 |
246 |
3.0 |
4 |
CN3A |
14,689 |
213 |
1.5 |
5 |
PJ2T |
11,532 |
213 |
1.8 |
6 |
OT7T |
9,412 |
205 |
2.2 |
7 |
II2S |
10,153 |
184 |
1.8 |
8 |
PX2A |
7,508 |
181 |
2.4 |
9 |
HQ9X |
8,454 |
171 |
2.0 |
10 |
RM9A |
9,587 |
167 |
1.7 |
2023 SSB -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥100 QSOs) |
Position |
Call |
QSOs |
Busts |
% Busts |
1 |
YB1EQI |
109 |
20 |
18.3 |
2 |
BA7JMO |
110 |
18 |
16.4 |
3 |
C31LK |
109 |
17 |
15.6 |
4 |
IS0AGY |
105 |
15 |
14.3 |
5 |
YF4SDF |
106 |
15 |
14.2 |
6 |
UR5ZDZ |
213 |
30 |
14.1 |
7 |
SA6PBW |
125 |
17 |
13.6 |
8 |
CE3TKG |
152 |
20 |
13.2 |
9 |
BG6QLL |
100 |
13 |
13.0 |
10 |
OH1TS |
103 |
13 |
12.6 |
2023 CW -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥100 QSOs) |
Position |
Call |
QSOs |
Busts |
% Busts |
1 |
IW2OGY |
127 |
26 |
20.5 |
2 |
9M2KDX |
113 |
22 |
19.5 |
3 |
K3GG |
154 |
29 |
18.8 |
4 |
VE4DL |
171 |
32 |
18.7 |
5 |
K9HXO |
149 |
27 |
18.1 |
6 |
AI2U |
224 |
40 |
17.9 |
7 |
EF4F |
185 |
33 |
17.8 |
8 |
LA6M |
346 |
61 |
17.6 |
9 |
SP2EPV |
234 |
41 |
17.5 |
10 |
SM5DNO |
112 |
19 |
17.0 |
2023 SSB -- Most Reverse Busts |
Position |
Call |
QSOs |
Reverse Busts |
% Reverse Busts |
1 |
DF0HQ |
9,933 |
305 |
3.1 |
2 |
9A1A |
11,223 |
277 |
2.5 |
3 |
EA8RM |
7,159 |
260 |
3.6 |
4 |
YT5A |
11,767 |
186 |
1.6 |
5 |
CN3A |
15,944 |
185 |
1.2 |
6 |
CR6K |
9,992 |
163 |
1.6 |
7 |
LZ6V |
2,070 |
163 |
7.9 |
8 |
LU8DPM |
2,770 |
161 |
5.8 |
9 |
EW5A |
7,578 |
158 |
2.1 |
10 |
S53M |
5,884 |
156 |
2.7 |
2023 CW -- Most Reverse Busts |
Position |
Call |
QSOs |
Reverse Busts |
% Reverse Busts |
1 |
UT3NK |
528 |
528 |
100.0 |
2 |
JF1NHD |
3,508 |
429 |
12.2 |
3 |
RM9A |
9,587 |
404 |
4.2 |
4 |
SM0HRP |
2,190 |
387 |
17.7 |
5 |
II2S |
10,153 |
361 |
3.6 |
6 |
DF0HQ |
9,526 |
271 |
2.8 |
7 |
YT5A |
11,522 |
266 |
2.3 |
8 |
RT4F |
8,369 |
260 |
3.1 |
9 |
CN3A |
14,689 |
258 |
1.8 |
10 |
K3LR |
9,083 |
252 |
2.8 |
2023 SSB -- Highest Percentage of Reverse Busts (≥100 QSOs) |
Position |
Call |
QSOs |
% Reverse Busts |
1 |
DX3EVM |
320 |
15.6 |
2 |
UA3R |
191 |
14.7 |
3 |
DU1QVK |
190 |
13.2 |
4 |
BG7SSK |
146 |
11.0 |
5 |
KE7NGO |
174 |
10.9 |
6 |
K9CJ |
120 |
10.8 |
7 |
BA7MT |
195 |
10.8 |
8 |
VK2DG |
322 |
9.9 |
9 |
HZ1SK |
357 |
9.8 |
10 |
9A5AFF |
543 |
9.8 |
2023 CW -- Highest Percentage of Reverse Busts (≥100 QSOs) |
Position |
Call |
QSOs |
% Reverse Busts |
1 |
UT3NK |
528 |
100.0 |
2 |
SQ2RH |
102 |
30.4 |
3 |
DF5GO |
125 |
20.8 |
4 |
SA5CDO |
274 |
18.6 |
5 |
SM0HRP |
2,190 |
17.7 |
6 |
CB4EW |
117 |
15.4 |
7 |
N5NHJ |
325 |
14.8 |
8 |
SQ6MIH |
421 |
14.7 |
9 |
SA6AUN |
220 |
14.1 |
10 |
K4HQK |
296 |
13.2 |
In tables of reverse busts, one sometimes
finds what seems like an unreasonable number of reverse busts (as is the
case, for example, for UT3NK in the 2023 CW table above). This is
generally caused by a discrepancy
between the call actually sent by the listed station and the one
recorded as being sent in at least some QSOs in the station's log. Other causes of frequent reverse busts are poor sending/audio, unusual calls and calls that are very similar to the call of an active, well-known contester.
Looking at a ten-year period:
2014--2023 SSB -- Most Busts |
Position |
Call |
QSOs |
Busts |
% Busts |
1 |
LZ9W |
93,344 |
1,627 |
1.7 |
2 |
CN3A |
86,528 |
1,534 |
1.8 |
3 |
OT5A |
59,537 |
1,288 |
2.2 |
4 |
PJ2T |
70,334 |
1,231 |
1.8 |
5 |
YT5A |
73,097 |
1,043 |
1.4 |
6 |
V26B |
59,233 |
1,008 |
1.7 |
7 |
A73A |
53,842 |
958 |
1.8 |
8 |
II2S |
53,546 |
905 |
1.7 |
9 |
CR6K |
56,086 |
866 |
1.5 |
10 |
CQ8M |
26,546 |
826 |
3.1 |
2014--2023 CW -- Most Busts |
Position |
Call |
QSOs |
Busts |
% Busts |
1 |
PJ2T |
92,331 |
1,213 |
1.3 |
2 |
LZ9W |
106,254 |
1,138 |
1.1 |
3 |
TK0C |
73,216 |
1,092 |
1.5 |
4 |
YT5A |
90,512 |
904 |
1.0 |
5 |
JA3YBK |
48,207 |
882 |
1.8 |
6 |
PI4CC |
42,027 |
825 |
2.0 |
7 |
EA8RM |
32,842 |
791 |
2.4 |
8 |
ZW8T |
11,756 |
789 |
6.7 |
9 |
HG7T |
68,957 |
763 |
1.1 |
10 |
VY2TT |
46,723 |
757 |
1.6 |
2014--2023 SSB -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥500 QSOs) |
Position |
Call |
QSOs |
Busts |
% Busts |
1 |
K2JMY |
1,278 |
217 |
17.0 |
2 |
IS0AGY |
527 |
86 |
16.3 |
3 |
YB2BNN |
632 |
87 |
13.8 |
4 |
EA7JQT |
572 |
71 |
12.4 |
5 |
R9MBY |
534 |
63 |
11.8 |
6 |
OH1TS |
763 |
88 |
11.5 |
7 |
EA1HTF |
1,762 |
177 |
10.0 |
8 |
UR5ZDZ |
1,107 |
111 |
10.0 |
9 |
EA4GWL |
931 |
91 |
9.8 |
10 |
EA8DEG |
1,125 |
108 |
9.6 |
2014--2023 CW -- Highest Percentage of Busts (≥500 QSOs) |
Position |
Call |
QSOs |
Busts |
% Busts |
1 |
W2UDT |
564 |
138 |
24.5 |
2 |
4Z5FW |
527 |
108 |
20.5 |
3 |
BD3MV |
708 |
145 |
20.5 |
4 |
DJ5UZ |
723 |
136 |
18.8 |
5 |
SP2EPV |
510 |
93 |
18.2 |
6 |
AE3D |
775 |
140 |
18.1 |
7 |
DL7CO |
827 |
140 |
16.9 |
8 |
CE6VMO |
695 |
111 |
16.0 |
9 |
LZ1BY |
789 |
124 |
15.7 |
10 |
PY1NSC |
573 |
89 |
15.5 |
2014--2023 SSB -- Most Reverse Busts |
Position |
Call |
QSOs |
Reverse Busts |
% Reverse Busts |
1 |
DF0HQ |
85,290 |
2,560 |
3.0 |
2 |
CN3A |
86,528 |
1,178 |
1.4 |
3 |
JA3YBK |
33,724 |
1,115 |
3.3 |
4 |
TM3R |
24,257 |
1,049 |
4.3 |
5 |
K3LR |
65,887 |
977 |
1.5 |
6 |
YT5A |
73,097 |
951 |
1.3 |
7 |
EA8RM |
32,239 |
923 |
2.9 |
8 |
CA3CLF |
982 |
915 |
93.2 |
9 |
IK2YCW |
25,411 |
830 |
3.3 |
10 |
OT5A |
59,537 |
809 |
1.4 |
2014--2023 CW -- Most Reverse Busts |
Position |
Call |
QSOs |
Reverse Busts |
% Reverse Busts |
1 |
DF0HQ |
80,526 |
2,549 |
3.2 |
2 |
JS3CTQ |
20,632 |
2,405 |
11.7 |
3 |
ES9C |
59,518 |
1,862 |
3.1 |
4 |
RM9A |
72,978 |
1,803 |
2.5 |
5 |
HG7T |
68,957 |
1,656 |
2.4 |
6 |
YT5A |
90,512 |
1,560 |
1.7 |
7 |
R2VM |
1,426 |
1,426 |
100.0 |
8 |
K3LR |
70,437 |
1,403 |
2.0 |
9 |
HG6N |
47,920 |
1,361 |
2.8 |
10 |
DR4A |
54,247 |
1,339 |
2.5 |
2014--2023 SSB -- Highest Percentage of Reverse Busts (≥500 QSOs) |
Position |
Call |
QSOs |
% Reverse Busts |
1 |
CA3CLF |
982 |
93.2 |
2 |
PT4Z |
1,011 |
20.3 |
3 |
DX3EVM |
847 |
12.2 |
4 |
ZP6DYA |
963 |
12.1 |
5 |
OG60F |
4,258 |
11.4 |
6 |
OA4DKN |
511 |
11.4 |
7 |
BH7PCT |
846 |
10.9 |
8 |
LU9DDJ |
862 |
10.4 |
9 |
HS3PIK |
674 |
9.9 |
10 |
BY4DX |
1,611 |
9.9 |
2014--2023 CW -- Highest Percentage of Reverse Busts (≥500 QSOs) |
Position |
Call |
QSOs |
% Reverse Busts |
1 |
R2VM |
1,426 |
100.0 |
2 |
UT3NK |
528 |
100.0 |
3 |
YT65A |
1,149 |
37.2 |
4 |
G3RWF |
2,682 |
35.5 |
5 |
5K0A |
1,853 |
32.1 |
6 |
PE75W |
1,408 |
29.3 |
7 |
OG55W |
3,265 |
28.6 |
8 |
TA1C/2 |
1,513 |
18.1 |
9 |
DP65HSC |
516 |
16.9 |
10 |
5J1E |
1,523 |
15.6 |